Trade Idea: How I’m Approaching Intel Earnings

Short Strangle Earnings Trade

As I’ve said numerous times in the past, statistically speaking, when it comes to options strategies it doesn’t get much better than a short strangle.

A short strangle is a neutral, range-bound options strategy (short call and short put) that has undefined risk and limited profit potential. Typically, a short strangle has little to no directional bias. And, like most options selling strategies, short strangles benefit from a decline in implied volatility (IV) and passage of time (time decay).

Short strangles require more capital because theoretically, the strategy has undefined risk because we are selling naked call and put options. But please, don’t let that scare you.

In return for the larger capital outlay, an options trader is rewarded with one of the highest probability options strategies in the investment universe. I’m talking an 85% probability of success. But hey, that’s one of the great things about selling options, using defined or undefined options strategies: you get to choose your probability of success on every trade you place.

But, there is one important caveat when trading short strangles.

Short strangles only work for the disciplined options trader. If you are not disciplined when it comes to risk management, naked options aren’t for you. I would suggest looking at iron condors. Iron condors are risk-defined.

I can’t emphasize enough: If you have the capital (taking position size into account) and look at yourself as a risk manager first and options trader second, well, this could be your new favorite strategy. There is a reason short strangles are the bread-and-butter options strategy for most professional options traders.

Let’s look at a potential earnings trade for next week and more importantly, how short strangles work.

As I said before, strangles, like all options selling strategies, benefit from a decline in implied volatility (IV) and passage of time (time decay). So, the first step is finding a highly liquid stock or ETF that has a heightened level of implied volatility.

Look no further than the current IV rank and IV percentile of the stock.

IV rank tells us if the current level of volatility in a stock is higher comparable to the levels over the past year. Since we are selling options in the form of a short strangle, we prefer options prices to be inflated.

IV percentile tells us the percentage of days that implied volatility has traded below its current level of implied volatility over the past year.

Intel (INTC) is due to announce next week. So, let’s take a look at a potential trade.

The stock is currently trading for 54.14.

 

short-strangle-earnings-trade-INTC

The next item is to look at INTC’s expected move for the expiration cycle that I’m interested in.

The expected move or expected range over the next 7 days can be seen in the pale orange colored bar below. The expected move is from 51.50 to roughly 56.50, for a range of $5.00.

 

short-strangle-earnings-trade-expected-move-intc

Knowing the expected range, I want to, in most cases, place the short call strike and short put strike of my short strangle outside of the expected range, in this case outside of 51.50 to 56.50.

This is my preference most of the time when using strangles. I want my short strangle to have a high probability of success.

If we look at the call side of INTC for August expiration, we can see that the 57 strike offers an 82.29% probability of success and the 57.5 strike offers us an 85.95% probability of success. For this example, I’m going with the more conservative strike which is the 57.5 strike.

short-strangle-earnings-trade-calls-INTC

Now let us move to the put side. Same process as the call side. But now we want to find a suitable strike below the low side of our expected move, or 51.50. The 50.5, with an 84.20% probability of success, works.

short-strangle-earnings-trade-puts-INTC

We can create a trade with a nice probability of success if INTC stays between our 7-point range, or the 57.5 call strike and the 50.5 put strike. Our probability of success on the trade is 85.95% on the upside and 84.20% on the downside.

I like those odds.

Here is the trade:

Simultaneously:

Sell to open INTC October 22, 2021 57.5 calls

Sell to open INTC October 22, 2021 50.5 puts for roughly $50 

Our margin requirement is $732.50 per short strangle.

Again, the goal of selling the INTC short strangle is to have the underlying stock, in this case INTC, stay below the 57.5 call strike and above the 50.5 put strike immediately after INTC earnings are announced.

Here are the parameters for this trade:

  • The Probability of Success – 85.95% (call side) and 84.20% (put side)
  • The max return on the trade is the credit of $0.50
  • Break-even level: 50 – 58
  • The maximum loss on the trade is in theory unlimited. Remember, we always adjust, if necessary, and always stick to our stop-loss guidelines. Position size, as always, is key.

In Summary 

I would prefer to see a bit more premium in the trade, but the probabilities are still high and the short strangle we’ve created is well outside the expected move. Of course, I prefer to make these trades the day before earnings are announced, so I would expect to see the premium a bit lower than it is now due to decay. So, premium could be an issue at the time of the trade. But, I like to see where potential trades stand the week prior, so I have a good understanding what stocks look appealing for a potential trade around earnings, which is why I go through this exercise with the stocks on my weekly earnings watchlist.

Short strangles offer options traders one the highest probability strategies out there. And that’s why they are one of the strategies of choice amongst professional options traders. Undefined risks strategies can be scary for the uninitiated. But if you understand the risk of the strategy and are diligent with your risk management a whole new world of trading has just opened up.

 

 

4 comments on “Trade Idea: How I’m Approaching Intel Earnings

  1. Rob Black on

    Andy, I have a question on the margin requirement. The distance between the strikes is $7, and the premium taken in is .50. Wouldn’t that be a $650 or $700 margin requirement, depending upon how you look at it? Can you explain to me what I’m missing there?

    Reply
  2. Ron on

    Greetings! This strategy will take me some time and experience for me to master so please continue to develop it. Repetition remains a great teacher. Enjoy/1

    Reply

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