Week after June Triple-Witching Lower 15 out of last 17 years

Earlier in the week I mentioned that “since the low established in July 2006 the S&P (SPY) has been higher during expiration week 10 out of 11 times. If the market lives up to its recent historical precedent I would expect to see the historically weak period of post options expiration kick in.”

Barring a major setback in the upcoming inflation reports over the next two days the market should be able to continue its winning ways again this week. However, I do expect to see another test to the downside next week. Maybe, not to the recent lows, but at least a decent move to the downside particularly if the market can reach an overbought state going into the week of post expiration. Also, the week after June Triple-Witching has seen the Dow lower 15 out of the last 17 years.