August 17, 2017

Allow Yourself a Margin for Error – Trade Credit Spreads

Okay, I think we all know my bias at this point. For those who don't, it's bearish. I am not going to bother going into why I am bearish. Just read my posts from the last few weeks to truly understand why I am currently bearish. So, I want to talk about something more important today - strategy. More specifically options strategies. With options, you can control with precision, the amount of risk and type of risk you wish to take in any given trade in any situation. One of my favorite strategies is selling vertical call/put spreads like in the Theta Driver Options Strategy. Let me explain. And please understand I am keeping it simple for conceptual reasons. Once, you understand the basics we can really dig deep to understand … [Read more...]

The Grind Higher Continues….For Now

As you all know I have had a bearish tone since mid-January. The market had moved into a short-term overbought state, excessive optimism had pushed into the market and seasonality had entered a historically bearish. And over the past several weeks all of the aforementioned have pushed further and further into a bearish state. But, the bulls have yet to waver and the grind continues. Since December 19th the S&P 500 (SPY) has climbed over 12% without pause. However, as we all know this is how it works, the market grinds higher and crashes lower. It's like stacking pennies and now the stack has reached 50 pennies high and it's teetering. I am not calling for a crash. But let's be real. The market can't sustain this push. Of … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High Probability Mean-Reversion Indicator – Range Bound Trading Persists

As I have stated over the past few days, a short-term bounce would occur and today the bounce came to fruition. Nothing too exciting, and if you have been reading my commentary over the past few days you know that I think we are still due for a sharp pullback that, in my opinion will occur after the May expiration cycle comes to a close. I would be ecstatic to see this market push even higher and into a short-term overbought over the next few days. A short-term extreme in any of the ETFs I follow in the HPMR strategy would be wonderful for me and for my subscribers. We have all been waiting patiently on the sidelines for several weeks looking for the right opportunity to enter a trade. But, as I always say patience pays. There are … [Read more...]