May 22, 2017

More Downside To Come?

Today was a banner day for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy. The IWM puts that I purchased near the close yesterday closed the day up 27.9% and if we continue to move to the downside tomorrow, which looks highly likely we could see even greater gains. My thought is that we will close the gap in IWM, DIA and SPY that occurred last Friday. This would take the major market ETFs to $69.73, $115.77 and $122.10, respectively. If we happen to close the aforementioned gaps then the next move could take the major market benchmarks down to close the gap from 10/10. A move like this over the next few weeks would lead to extraordinary gains in the strategy. A move to close the gap from last Friday could lead to us to a … [Read more...]

Options Trades in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategies

A trade in the High-Probability, Mean Reversion Strategy looks likely if IWM happens to open flat or open tomorrow. Of course, there are a few other thng is that need to line-up, but the first trade of a slow August seems likely. Subscribers stay tuned! Our latest Theta Driver Options trade looks very good. Last Monday, I placed our first trade for a credit of $0.25 and thanks to some help from the bears (although a flat to slightly higher market would have worked as well, just not so quickly) the credit spread is now worth less than $0.05. With only $0.05 and 25 days left until September expiration I will mostly likely lock in the gain for roughly a 9% gain (including commissions) and place another Theta Driver trade within the next few … [Read more...]

You Must Understand Why These Options Strategies Thrives During in Any Market Condition

The market is tanking. Investors are freaking. Even some of my own subscribers, who have only made money during this market craziness, are leaving. Why? I certainly understand the former, but the latter. I think it is just a lack of understanding. Cash is a position and I have been on the sidelines in my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy for several weeks. Yes, there were some short0-term extremes in the market, but my proprietary models were telling me to stay on the sidelines. Plus, even more than my prop models my own common sense told me that I should just stay out of this mess, at least for the moment. This is not to say that I have not made money in this market over the past several weeks. In fact, my new Theta Driver … [Read more...]

Options Strategies Continue To Shine In This Volatile Market

I am going to keep it rather short tonight. The market moved lower today, but the bears had a rough time pushing the major benchmarks decisively lower. We could still see a push lower, but over the short-term the direction leans towards the bulls. However, there are a few international ETF's that have pushed into an oversold state and a few could be potential plays going forward. Currently EWZ, EWP and TBT are on my radar for short-term plays and as always I will inform all of you (my paid subscribers) in real-time if and when a trade occurs. New Credit Spread Options Strategy – Beta The two week push by the bulls has pushed the value of my credit spread to approximately $.51 which is $.17 higher than my original price. For all … [Read more...]

Credit Spread Strategy Update – Market Remains Range-Bound

Quick Options Strategy Review I just wanted to remind everyone that I placed my first trade in the New Credit Spread Options Strategy, or should I say Crowder's Credit Spreads. You can check the official trade in the link below. As it stands the credit spread is worth approximately $.48 per contract. I was able to purchase the credit spread in IWM for $.34 so the trade is currently down $.14 per contract. Certainly nothing to worry about at the moment, as the underlying IWM is still 5.1% away from the short strike at 86. Of course, if IWM continues to move sharply higher over the next few days then I might have to take a closer look at potential adjustments. The window dressing advance that typically occurs during the end of each … [Read more...]

Market Remains Range-Bound – Options Strategy Remains Patient

The anticipated bounce occurred today. However, I would not get overly excited because the rally could be short-lived. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped higher at the open today and never moved lower to close the gap. I would expect to see a close at $128.24 in SPY before the market is able to make any ground. We are already nearing an oversold state in my shortest-term indicators, so it could be a tough few days for the bulls. Although, as long as SPY is able to hold the March lows I think the market could be okay. When I say okay, I mean a move back near the top of the established trading range - $125-$137. If SPY pushed through strong support at the $125 level then I think we could se a waterfall decline that could take us as low … [Read more...]