May 22, 2017

It’s All About the New Year’s Gap. Will it Close? If so, When?

The small caps,  as seen by the Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), remain the most resilient of all sectors within the market. The Dow (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have pushed back into neutral states. Since the upside gap on 1/2 the major benchmarks have struggled to advance. The large gap underneath seems to be weighing on the market which makes me more apt to lean towards the bearish side until the gap is resolved. Of course, as we all know we could see another push towards the upside, but again, with out-of-the-money credit spreads I can create a margin for error that allows me to be absolutely wrong in my assumption, yet still profit from on the trade. It all comes down to probabilities. If we are able to go out to the … [Read more...]

Market Remains Range-Bound – Options Strategy Remains Patient

The anticipated bounce occurred today. However, I would not get overly excited because the rally could be short-lived. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped higher at the open today and never moved lower to close the gap. I would expect to see a close at $128.24 in SPY before the market is able to make any ground. We are already nearing an oversold state in my shortest-term indicators, so it could be a tough few days for the bulls. Although, as long as SPY is able to hold the March lows I think the market could be okay. When I say okay, I mean a move back near the top of the established trading range - $125-$137. If SPY pushed through strong support at the $125 level then I think we could se a waterfall decline that could take us as low … [Read more...]