May 22, 2017

Trades, Trades, Options Trades

I've been waiting for implied volatility to kick up a little which is why I have not placed a trade over the past few days. Tomorrow id definitely the day. Subscriber stay tuned! If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t had a chance,  please join my Free Weekly Newsletter, Twitter feed and/or Facebook page. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

Preparing for Trading (a few options)

I'm keeping it short tonight. I have lots of trades to go through tonight. Subscribers, prepare to receive a few trade alerts throughout the day tomorrow. If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t had a chance,  please join my Free Weekly Newsletter, Twitter feed and/or Facebook page. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

Video: Potential SPY Trade

I wanted to do a quick video on a potential trade set-up. If anything this should give you a good (and very basic) idea how I approach credit spreads. If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t had a chance,  please join my Free Weekly Newsletter, Twitter feed and/or Facebook page. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

Fooled Again (At Least for Now)

Wow, what a difference a few days make. Should we call this latest rally the Yellen rally? Just two days ago everyone was fearful of a decline, yet now all is forgotten. Now we can all get back to sitting back and comfortably watching the market the five year + bull market continue, right? Wrong. We can't ignore all of the bearish indicators that have entered the market as of late. And these aren't your typical short-term indicators. we are seeing historical extremes that have led to intermediate-term declines. I'm not calling for a crash. I'm just being realistic. We haven't seen a notable, healthy correction in a long, long time. And the lack of a pullback is showing up in the background. We have a lack of hedging activity … [Read more...]

The Move is Inevitable

Keeping it short tonight. Nothing has changed from my post yesterday. The market remains in dangerous territory as it hovers near all-time highs. You just can't ignore all of the historical precedents that are entering into the market right now. On the other hand, commodities are very oversold right now on a short-term basis. Also, as you can see in the table below, Brazil, India and the Emerging Market ETFs are also very oversold on a short-term basis. Now might be a good time to start delving into a few bull put spreads If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it … [Read more...]

My Short-Term Market View Hasn’t Changed

My view hasn't changed since the middle of October. ...this market is set-up for a nice decline. And so far, while my view hasn't been realized, the market hasn't rallied further. In fact, the tight trading range at all-time highs has proven to be an excellent area to sell credit spreads. Moreover, I think the major benchmarks could be trading at levels that offer a  wonderful opportunity to take a few short-term aggressive plays like buy a few puts. I typically, don't buy options, but at these levels it's hard to pass up...and we've actually had very good fortune buying puts over the past month. So, if you are a subscriber, stay tuned because there is a very good chance that I will be adding to our December positions … [Read more...]

Thankfully!

Thankfully I didn't step into this big pile of Bull #$%^ today. For some reason the S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 8.50 higher right now which means my decision was correct. So, I will be shorting the Bear $%^& out of it tomorrow. Thank you bulls for giving me a much better entry for my December positions. I appreciate it. Subscribers stay tuned! If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t had a chance,  please join my Free Weekly Newsletter, Twitter feed and/or Facebook page. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

Trading Opportunities Ahead

Admittedly I haven't placed many trades over the past several weeks. Some may say that the more you trade the better. Increasing your sample size is the key to success. Trade small, trade often. In some cases, yes, but if you are only trading a limited amount of highly liquid ETFs I'm not so sure it makes sense. Wait for the set-up to come to you...don't force trades. And yes, while no one knows the destiny of the next move, why not allow pot odds to be on your side. But my "cash is a position" complacency is coming to an end this week. In my free weekend report I stated that I would be placing several new trades early this week for the December expiration cycle. Well, the time has come. Tomorrow I will be placing several credit … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator

I apologize for being away yesterday. I've spending some quality time with my parents and prepping my daughter (vampire queen) for Halloween. So, with that being said, I'm only going to post the indicator tonight. Volatility has picked up so hopefully the trades I wanted to place earlier in the week will be occurring in the next day or two. I'm a bit frustrated I wasn't able to get my entry, but that's just how things go in the wonderful world of trading sometimes. Until then I will be patiently waiting until my signals hit. Have a great night! … [Read more...]

Still Hovering in a Short-term Overbought State Nears the Highs – Could We See A Double Dip?

Roughly one week ago we exited what would be a profitable directional trade in XOP. XOP had climbed into a short-term overbought state, so I decided to short the ETF using puts. Now typically, I am a seller of options, but the set-up was just too good to pass up for an aggressive style trade so I bought a few puts. The result was a 74% gain over just a few trading days. While I'm not going to anticipate similar results this time around, I am excited about the opportunity ahead. We are greeted with what looks like another opportunity in XOP among other ETFs. I reluctantly did not place any trades today, although I was tempted to place a trade at the closing bell. So, hopefully we see a relatively flat open so I can make a few … [Read more...]