August 17, 2017

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator

I am going to keep it short tonight. As you can see per the chart below, all of the ETFs I follow in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy are in a neutral state. However, there are some very good opportunities in the Theta Driver Options Strategy and I plan on making a trade in the strategy tomorrow. I would expect after Big Ben speaks we will see a few short-term extremes enter the market which should give us a few potential set-ups in the HPMR strategy. I am still waiting patiently for a trade. Subscribers stay tuned, particularly those of you who are members of my Theta Driver strategy. Until then, Andy Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info on the social network as well. … [Read more...]

Credit Spread Opportunities Are Bountiful

The pre-market action has really left the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy with very little opportunities for entry. There are still a few potential trades in the work, but if August goes without a trade then so be it. I am not going to force a trade. Trading to fulfill some type of quota is ridiculous. Trading is not based on the calendar, it is based on opportunities and unfortunately the opportunities have been non-existent. However, as we all know they will be back and be back with vengeance. That just seems to be how the market and moreover, how the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy works. As for the Theta Driver strategy, the trade is currently worth $.09. The underlying of the trade is still well below the short … [Read more...]

Options Trades in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategies

A trade in the High-Probability, Mean Reversion Strategy looks likely if IWM happens to open flat or open tomorrow. Of course, there are a few other thng is that need to line-up, but the first trade of a slow August seems likely. Subscribers stay tuned! Our latest Theta Driver Options trade looks very good. Last Monday, I placed our first trade for a credit of $0.25 and thanks to some help from the bears (although a flat to slightly higher market would have worked as well, just not so quickly) the credit spread is now worth less than $0.05. With only $0.05 and 25 days left until September expiration I will mostly likely lock in the gain for roughly a 9% gain (including commissions) and place another Theta Driver trade within the next few … [Read more...]

Buy and Hold is A Crock – Cash is a Position – Diversify Through Strategies Not Stocks

The major market averages continue their struggle to push higher over the past three trading days. I still think the market pulls back to close the 9/1/10 gap over the next few months. However, as I always say, all of the noise truly doesn't matter to me, I trade market extremes and volatility. So, it doesn't matter to me where the market goes or how it performs over the long-term. These are uncertainties that have zero statistical advantages. I don't diversify in stocks - I diversify in strategies. This is how to effectively invest your money. This is why I use the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy and the New Theta Driver strategy. It exposes me to a limited number of days in the market. I am often in cash. I only trade … [Read more...]

Responsible Options Strategies to Help You Navigate the Market

Professional options traders are a different breed. We take a statistical, mathematical, rational approach to the marketplace. We add another layer of probability and risk control that could not be possible with stocks alone. We make bets on things like volatility and don’t always care which way a stock or ETF moves. Everything we do is at least partially hedged, which reduces the need for Maalox, Prozac and most importantly heavy drinking, which many of my stock-trading buddies rely on almost daily. I run two options strategies. Two strategies that work for me and I try my best to teach them to anyone willing to listen. Why? Because it is important to me that options become a part of the everyday conversation among investors. I … [Read more...]

Keep Your Options Trading Simple – Trade Probabilities

What do you think about the markets here? A question I often receive from subscribers or the financial media. My response, I don’t care. Okay, that my be a bit harsh and overstated, but for the most part I really don't care about the daily news that flows in and out of the market. I am an options trader. I trade strategies based off probabilities. Nothing new here. I just want to teach people how to trade effectively and profit my using my options strategies. Because knowing what is going on in the news and making money are two separate beings. For successful investors its about your strategy, your logic, your process, it doesn't matter what you think the market is going to tomorrow. This is a concept that is often difficult for the newbie … [Read more...]

Gold Hits a Short-Term Extreme

*Over the short-term Gold (GLD) has pushed into 'very overbought' extreme which could trigger a trade over the next few trading days. If gold happens to move higher and thereby push further into 'overbought' territory I will most likely enter a trade over the next few days. As always, subscribers, be on the lookout for a real-time trade alert and tweet of the trade. New Credit Spread Options Strategy – Beta The market moved lower again today and the Russell 2000 (IWM) is now 4.3 percent below the 86 strike. I sold a vertical spread with 53 days left until August expiration for a $.34 credit and now the spread is worth approximately $.45. The two week rally that occurred during the latter part of June/beginning of July sent the price … [Read more...]

Options Strategies Continue To Shine In This Volatile Market

I am going to keep it rather short tonight. The market moved lower today, but the bears had a rough time pushing the major benchmarks decisively lower. We could still see a push lower, but over the short-term the direction leans towards the bulls. However, there are a few international ETF's that have pushed into an oversold state and a few could be potential plays going forward. Currently EWZ, EWP and TBT are on my radar for short-term plays and as always I will inform all of you (my paid subscribers) in real-time if and when a trade occurs. New Credit Spread Options Strategy – Beta The two week push by the bulls has pushed the value of my credit spread to approximately $.51 which is $.17 higher than my original price. For all … [Read more...]

Patient, Methodical Approach Leads to Further Gains in the High-Probability, Options Strategy. Portfolio Up 47.9% Since Inception.

On Wednesday I entered into some IWM puts. Of course, the market raced higher and my trade was quickly underwater, but I knew that the probability of a short-term decline was extremely high so I placed another trade and the following day the market declined. I stuck with the trade over the weekend because the short-term overbought reading had not worked itself out so the probability of a move lower remained high. Today, the market pushed significantly lower at the open so I was able to get out of my combined position for a nice profit that pushed my the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion options strategy to new high of 47.9% since its inception back in November. New Credit Spread Options Strategy – Beta The surge last week pushed the … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy Continues Success – Up 43.1% Since Inception

Quick Options Strategy Review The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy reaped another gain today. The successful trade pushed the strategy to a new high - +43.1% since its inception eight months ago. You can see the performance results for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion options strategy here. The success has been incredible so far and I am nearing a limit to my newsletter. If you are indeed interested in my service please sign-up now to secure I spot. I want to keep a cap on subscribers for various reasons including manageable service and more importantly, keeping volume at a reasonable level on the options I choose for my trades. The first trade in my new Credit Spread Options Strategy is right where it started a … [Read more...]