February 27, 2017

Up, Down, Up, Down…What’s Next?

The market took a tumble today and my guess is there is more to come going forward. Although, as an options trader, the direction of the market doesn't really matter too much. As an options trader who focuses on options selling strategies, it's all about the volatility. As long as implied volatility for SPY stays above the historical average all is well in the land of high-probability options strategies. I've started off the year with several successful trades, but admittedly the trades have been few and far between. That's about to change. Stay tuned!!! If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each … [Read more...]

Welcome to the New Year…It’s Going to Be a Good One

As an options trader, I don't really concern myself too much with the directional tendencies of the market. Yes, I will have my occasional bias, but the bias is based on short-term overbought/oversold levels, better known as mean-reversion in the world of statistics. And once I have my so-called directional leaning I most often wrap a high-probability strategy around my bias using options. These simple steps are the foundation of almost everything I do as an options trader. And while these steps give me an edge, if used in the right manner, they still do not guarantee profits at each and every turn.But when you have the ability to take all emotion out of the equation and limit yourself to simple mechanics you are well on our way to becoming … [Read more...]

Pay Close Attention to These Few Notable Areas

The short-term reprieve finally came and now we are back in a short-term oversold state. The pullback today gave all of our positions some breathing room, including our SPY 188/190 bear call spread. Our recent trades for April expiration look very good as well. Over the next week or so I will be placing a few iron condor trades, so subscribers stay tuned. With the recent advance in the VIX, there is some decent premium out there in the major market benchmark ETFs. If the VIX can push towards towards 17 - 18 or higher we can really widen out our ranges and bring in some decent premium at the same time. Another ETF I'm watching right now is DBA, the agriculture ETF has skyrocketed since the beginning of February without  pause. Is … [Read more...]

Why a Short-Term Decline is Highly-Probable

We witnessed another upside gap today and in my opinion the bears were handed a gift, at least for the short-term. Most of the highly- liquid ETFs I follow here at Crowder Options have pushed into a short-term overbought extreme, with several actually reaching a very overbought extreme. Typically, when we see this type of price action, that is an upside gap into overbought to very overbought territory at strong overhead resistance, a short-term reprieve is to be expected. However, if you recall, I expected to see  a reprieve after last Tuesday's large upside gap, but the gap in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (one of my positions at the moment) has yet to close. But, now that we have seen the all of the major ETFs, SPY, DIA, IWM and … [Read more...]

Will the Gap Close?

All of the major indices gapped up on the first day of the trading year and now we are seeing a push into overbought territory coupled with decent overhead resistance. As an options trader this is the types of set-up that I look for and trade without hesitation. Once I make the assumption that the gap will close and the overbought state will move back into neutral territory I then use the appropriate options strategy to take advantage. I am an options trader. I trade strategies based off probabilities. Nothing new here. I just want to teach people how to trade effectively and profit by using my options high-probability options strategies.  For successful investors/traders, its about your strategy, your logic, your process and nothing … [Read more...]

Market Sets Record

What a day! According to Jason Goepfert, Tuesday was "the best day in 30 years." "The buying stampede resulted in just under 98% of all volume being transacted in stocks that were positive on the day." The highest ever. Historically, after large Up Volume days the market consolidates and I would expect that this time would be no different. All of the ETFs I follow have pushed back into neutral territory and several of the major market benchmarks are very close to a overbought state. With that being said, I intend to add a credit spread in the Theta Driver strategy tomorrow and depending on the price action tomorrow I might just add a position in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy. Subscribers stay … [Read more...]

Short-Term Reprieve Occurs – Now What?

In my Free Weekly Report this past weekend I spoke about how I thought a short-term reprieve was lurking. I spoke about a return to 1220 and well, we are here already. Now what? The market gapped significantly lower at the open and never looked back. Now all of the ETFs I follow for the options strategies are well within a neutral state. The only ETF that has pushed into a short-term oversold state - TBT. And if the RSI (2) of TBT moves even lower tomorrow I will most likely take another position. Other than that I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next set-up. According to Jason Goepfert: "The Beta Chase Index jumped above 6 on Monday, very unusual for a down day in the market. Part of the reason was that … [Read more...]

More Downside To Come?

Today was a banner day for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy. The IWM puts that I purchased near the close yesterday closed the day up 27.9% and if we continue to move to the downside tomorrow, which looks highly likely we could see even greater gains. My thought is that we will close the gap in IWM, DIA and SPY that occurred last Friday. This would take the major market ETFs to $69.73, $115.77 and $122.10, respectively. If we happen to close the aforementioned gaps then the next move could take the major market benchmarks down to close the gap from 10/10. A move like this over the next few weeks would lead to extraordinary gains in the strategy. A move to close the gap from last Friday could lead to us to a … [Read more...]

Options Indicator Signals Tech Overbought

Here's the list of the ETFs that make up the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator. Hopefully (time permitting), I will be back with another post later this evening. Stay tuned! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability Mean-Reversion Options Indicator

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