August 20, 2017

Was Tuesday the Top?

Numerous downgrades, more European woes, news of inevitable Greek default, financial sector struggles among other bearish news led to a lower, oops, higher open today? Yes, higher. It has indeed been rather frustrating as a short-term bear since the gap open on 1/3. But, oftentimes when you are a contrarian and you make your livelihood on fading short to intermediate-term market extremes you often get into positions early. Any professional with any cred will tell you the same. It is to be expected. However, we are now nearing the area of max pain. While I thought we would see an immediate push lower after the first week of the year, I was willing to accept a push up to 1300 on the S&P or roughly $130.00 in SPY. We hit that level … [Read more...]

Why a Short-Term Decline is Highly-Probable

We witnessed another upside gap today and in my opinion the bears were handed a gift, at least for the short-term. Most of the highly- liquid ETFs I follow here at Crowder Options have pushed into a short-term overbought extreme, with several actually reaching a very overbought extreme. Typically, when we see this type of price action, that is an upside gap into overbought to very overbought territory at strong overhead resistance, a short-term reprieve is to be expected. However, if you recall, I expected to see  a reprieve after last Tuesday's large upside gap, but the gap in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (one of my positions at the moment) has yet to close. But, now that we have seen the all of the major ETFs, SPY, DIA, IWM and … [Read more...]

The 2011 Options Strategies Review

I just wanted to thank all of you for a wonderful 2011. My theory on how to effectively trade options is finally catching on and the response has been overwhelming. I continue to be amazed by all of the positive feedback. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Daily Thoughts Patience, patience, patience. I have been patiently waiting for one of the ETFs I follow to hit a short-term extreme and after today's huge rally we are finally beginning to see some short-term extremes enter the market. As a result, I will most likely be placing a trade in the Theta Driver strategy over the next few days and if we see a continuation of this beginning of the year rally we could also see a trade in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion … [Read more...]

The Market Moves Further Into and Oversold State

The market has pushed into one of the most short-term oversold states that I have seen in quite some time. Almost every ETF I follow is now in a "very oversold" state with RSI (2) readings below 5 and over half below 1 - a rarity indeed. So, now is the time that I want to be aggressive on the long side, but only for a few trading days. Conditions like the aforementioned almost always work themselves back to mean-reversion and I want to be a participant when the short-term occurs. I already have several trades on in both of my options strategies and plan on adding several more over the next few trading days, that is unless we see an enormous bounce before the opening bell Friday, which I think is highly doubtful. It is during times … [Read more...]

Do You Want to Make Money?

Change the way you invest! Hundreds of thousands of money managers don't understand how to manage money effectively. People blindly giving professional money managers that are not able to articulate the strategy they use to make the money they claim to make. It frustrates me beyond belief to hear professional money managers talk about a stock and their respective fundamentals and why you should should just blindly buy the stock based on their recommendation. No strategy talk whatsoever. Just blindly believe them and buy. Yet, they only have a 50/50 chance of success picking stocks and have no idea how to use options to increase their odds of success. I would never and I repeat NEVER even speak with a money manager if they were not … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Short-Term Reprieve Looks Imminent

It was another day of sideways trading. The market was able to hold gains for yet another day which was impressive given the short-term overbought extremes, strong overhead resistance and yesterday's huge upside gap. I am still leaning towards a close of the upside from yesterday which would bring SPY down to $117.25, DIA down to $112.21 and QQQ down to $54.66. I would expect that this occurs over the next 2-3 days, but Mr. Market always has a way of playing games with what should be obvious price levels. I found an interesting nugget from Jason Goepfert of today. "According to Bloomberg , at least 500 more stocks last traded on an uptick than a downtick on each session during the past week.  The 5-day average of … [Read more...]

Options Trades in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategies

A trade in the High-Probability, Mean Reversion Strategy looks likely if IWM happens to open flat or open tomorrow. Of course, there are a few other thng is that need to line-up, but the first trade of a slow August seems likely. Subscribers stay tuned! Our latest Theta Driver Options trade looks very good. Last Monday, I placed our first trade for a credit of $0.25 and thanks to some help from the bears (although a flat to slightly higher market would have worked as well, just not so quickly) the credit spread is now worth less than $0.05. With only $0.05 and 25 days left until September expiration I will mostly likely lock in the gain for roughly a 9% gain (including commissions) and place another Theta Driver trade within the next few … [Read more...]

Patient, Methodical Approach Leads to Further Gains in the High-Probability, Options Strategy. Portfolio Up 47.9% Since Inception.

On Wednesday I entered into some IWM puts. Of course, the market raced higher and my trade was quickly underwater, but I knew that the probability of a short-term decline was extremely high so I placed another trade and the following day the market declined. I stuck with the trade over the weekend because the short-term overbought reading had not worked itself out so the probability of a move lower remained high. Today, the market pushed significantly lower at the open so I was able to get out of my combined position for a nice profit that pushed my the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion options strategy to new high of 47.9% since its inception back in November. New Credit Spread Options Strategy – Beta The surge last week pushed the … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy Continues Success – Up 43.1% Since Inception

Quick Options Strategy Review The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy reaped another gain today. The successful trade pushed the strategy to a new high - +43.1% since its inception eight months ago. You can see the performance results for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion options strategy here. The success has been incredible so far and I am nearing a limit to my newsletter. If you are indeed interested in my service please sign-up now to secure I spot. I want to keep a cap on subscribers for various reasons including manageable service and more importantly, keeping volume at a reasonable level on the options I choose for my trades. The first trade in my new Credit Spread Options Strategy is right where it started a … [Read more...]

The Best Options Strategies Take Discipline and Patience

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy Update The month of June started with a bang for the bears. The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 2.3% since Tuesday's close and many options traders I know believe the market will experience a "June Swoon" to start the summer. Of course,  most of you already know the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion options strategy doesn't really care where the underlying market goes, the options strategy only cares about short-term extremes in the underlying market (S&P 500, Dow, Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, etc.). In the highly-active world of options trading waiting for an extreme takes great patience. Discipline is of the utmost importance. Anyone can place a directional play and do well for a time, but … [Read more...]