August 18, 2017

Look Out Below? High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator Extremes

Crowder Options: High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator (9-17-13) As you can quickly see in the table below, all of the major indices are currently in a short-term, and let me emphasize one more time, short-term overbought to very overbought state. Typically, when we see this type of reading the underlying ETF experiences a short term reprieve. The one bullish sign is the fact that we are in a triple witching week. Historically, there has been a positive skew, so the bears will have a few obstacles in there way. However, given the overbought state in almost all of the ETFs we follow, combined with unclosed gaps below and strong overhead resistance the odds are currently with the bears, again for the short-term. One thing is … [Read more...]

Updated High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator

For those of you who use the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator on a daily basis, you will quickly notice that I have altered the list a bit. I decided to alter the list to reflect the ETFs with the most liquid options markets. The list is fairly comprehensive, but if you notice have other ETFs that you would like for me to include send me an email. Just remember, the options on the ETF MUST have a efficient options market noted by a tight bid-ask spread. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Options Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for … [Read more...]

More Downside To Come?

Today was a banner day for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy. The IWM puts that I purchased near the close yesterday closed the day up 27.9% and if we continue to move to the downside tomorrow, which looks highly likely we could see even greater gains. My thought is that we will close the gap in IWM, DIA and SPY that occurred last Friday. This would take the major market ETFs to $69.73, $115.77 and $122.10, respectively. If we happen to close the aforementioned gaps then the next move could take the major market benchmarks down to close the gap from 10/10. A move like this over the next few weeks would lead to extraordinary gains in the strategy. A move to close the gap from last Friday could lead to us to a … [Read more...]

Options Indicator Signals Tech Overbought

Here's the list of the ETFs that make up the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator. Hopefully (time permitting), I will be back with another post later this evening. Stay tuned! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Short-Term Reprieve Occurs – Will It Continue?

The short-term reprieve that I mentioned in the Free Weekend Report (Sign-Up Free Here) occurred today and by the looks of it we could see more downside tomorrow. As I mentioned in the report "as for the current technical picture, the all of the major indices and most sectors are in a short-term "very overbought" state as we head into the week of options expiration. Not only are the major benchmarks in one of the most short-term overbought states that we have seen in quite some time, but we are now hitting strong overhead resistance with two unclosed gaps directly underneath. Combine all of the aforementioned and you can quickly see why the risk/reward scenario leans heavily towards a short-term reprieve next week." Now all of our … [Read more...]

Options Offer Tremendous Opportunities

I am always amazed how large the opportunity to "make it big" factors into the great magnetism of the market. The belief that anyone, from any background can be successful and make tons of money has quite the allure. But, in all of this euphoria people neglect to think about all of those that failed before them. And believe me the failure rate is high. Yet, investors/traders continue to choose the most difficult of investments to trade - stocks. Stock-only traders are at a complete disadvantage because they have no way to trade the randomness of the market. They have a 50/50 chance of success for each and every trade. Bottom line - stock investors/traders are truly at a disadvantage. Again, stock investors only have two ways to make a … [Read more...]

Credit Spread Opportunities Are Bountiful

The pre-market action has really left the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy with very little opportunities for entry. There are still a few potential trades in the work, but if August goes without a trade then so be it. I am not going to force a trade. Trading to fulfill some type of quota is ridiculous. Trading is not based on the calendar, it is based on opportunities and unfortunately the opportunities have been non-existent. However, as we all know they will be back and be back with vengeance. That just seems to be how the market and moreover, how the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy works. As for the Theta Driver strategy, the trade is currently worth $.09. The underlying of the trade is still well below the short … [Read more...]

Options Trade in the Works?

I am going to keep it short tonight. The market kicked up higher at the open and never turned back. As a result, I did not make a trade in either of the strategies today, but tomorrow is a new day and there are still quite a few viable trades out there as you can see in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion chart below. So, again, subscribers stay tuned. Market Mumbo Jumbo Daily options report VIX Crush - Fed Stimulus Theta and Time Decay If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info on the social network as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Options Trades in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategies

A trade in the High-Probability, Mean Reversion Strategy looks likely if IWM happens to open flat or open tomorrow. Of course, there are a few other thng is that need to line-up, but the first trade of a slow August seems likely. Subscribers stay tuned! Our latest Theta Driver Options trade looks very good. Last Monday, I placed our first trade for a credit of $0.25 and thanks to some help from the bears (although a flat to slightly higher market would have worked as well, just not so quickly) the credit spread is now worth less than $0.05. With only $0.05 and 25 days left until September expiration I will mostly likely lock in the gain for roughly a 9% gain (including commissions) and place another Theta Driver trade within the next few … [Read more...]

Keep Your Options Trading Simple – Trade Probabilities

What do you think about the markets here? A question I often receive from subscribers or the financial media. My response, I don’t care. Okay, that my be a bit harsh and overstated, but for the most part I really don't care about the daily news that flows in and out of the market. I am an options trader. I trade strategies based off probabilities. Nothing new here. I just want to teach people how to trade effectively and profit my using my options strategies. Because knowing what is going on in the news and making money are two separate beings. For successful investors its about your strategy, your logic, your process, it doesn't matter what you think the market is going to tomorrow. This is a concept that is often difficult for the newbie … [Read more...]