June 25, 2017

How Long Can We Teeter on the Edge

January's rally was admirable. It's perseverance frustrated bears. The infrequent single day declines maxed out at -0.6%. And the last nine days of the month were more than mind-numbing for most traders as the market traded in a very tight range. There's no doubt the bears are ready. Almost every technical and sentiment measure I follow has pushed into a bearish state. Typically, I am ecstatic by the weight of the bearish measures, but it seems everyone is aware of the measures and have joined my camp. And when what seems like the herd is anticipating something it has a hard time coming to fruition. We must remember that January is one of the strongest month of the year for the market. February not so strong with a … [Read more...]

Bold Enough to Call A Top?

Well, I already made that mistake. 1.9% lower. Check out my post from last Tuesday. But, 1.9% lower really isn't that far. Especially if you consider all of the bearish indicators that currently reside on  a sentiment and technical basis. I use very few indicators. I am a strong believer in the linear regression of time and price.  You know, mean-reversion,  bell curves, simple overbought/oversold indicators. Simple, logical, intellectual and more importantly mathematically sound indicators that are the first step towards long-term trading success. Emotions are nonexistent. Time and price determine my parameters. Basically, I apply statistical principles first and foremost. And the credit spreads I apply all have the probability of … [Read more...]

Why a Short-Term Decline is Highly-Probable

We witnessed another upside gap today and in my opinion the bears were handed a gift, at least for the short-term. Most of the highly- liquid ETFs I follow here at Crowder Options have pushed into a short-term overbought extreme, with several actually reaching a very overbought extreme. Typically, when we see this type of price action, that is an upside gap into overbought to very overbought territory at strong overhead resistance, a short-term reprieve is to be expected. However, if you recall, I expected to see  a reprieve after last Tuesday's large upside gap, but the gap in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (one of my positions at the moment) has yet to close. But, now that we have seen the all of the major ETFs, SPY, DIA, IWM and … [Read more...]

The 2011 Options Strategies Review

I just wanted to thank all of you for a wonderful 2011. My theory on how to effectively trade options is finally catching on and the response has been overwhelming. I continue to be amazed by all of the positive feedback. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Daily Thoughts Patience, patience, patience. I have been patiently waiting for one of the ETFs I follow to hit a short-term extreme and after today's huge rally we are finally beginning to see some short-term extremes enter the market. As a result, I will most likely be placing a trade in the Theta Driver strategy over the next few days and if we see a continuation of this beginning of the year rally we could also see a trade in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion … [Read more...]

The Market Moves Further Into and Oversold State

The market has pushed into one of the most short-term oversold states that I have seen in quite some time. Almost every ETF I follow is now in a "very oversold" state with RSI (2) readings below 5 and over half below 1 - a rarity indeed. So, now is the time that I want to be aggressive on the long side, but only for a few trading days. Conditions like the aforementioned almost always work themselves back to mean-reversion and I want to be a participant when the short-term occurs. I already have several trades on in both of my options strategies and plan on adding several more over the next few trading days, that is unless we see an enormous bounce before the opening bell Friday, which I think is highly doubtful. It is during times … [Read more...]

The Sell-Off Continues – Several ETFs in a Short-Term Oversold State

 The market continued to sell off today and as a result we have several short-term oversold readings in the high-probability, mean-reversion options indicator. So, with options expiration tomorrow and several oversold ETFs I WILL be making a few trades in one or both of my options strategies. So subscribers stay tuned. For the rest of you here are the short-term overbought/oversold readings. As always feel free to email me if you have any questions or comments. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of … [Read more...]

The Perfect Environment for Selling Options Premium

Let the selling continue - the selling of options premium. Implied volatility remains high as the market remains anxious about the next piece of news. You can thank the Eurozone for the heightened VIX. At 30, the investor's fear gauge affords sellers of options premium the opportunity to create spreads with incredibly high (by historical standards) premium. Premium affords investors/traders the ability to increase the risk/reward of their respective trade in various ways and I am a high-probability trader in every sense of the term. So as one could expect, this environment lends well to my Theta Driver strategy . I sell premium, mostly through out-of-the-money vertical bear calls and vertical bull puts, but more importantly the trades … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator

Nothing has changed since last Friday. My hope is that we see a short-term extreme very soon in one of the ETFs we follow in our options strategies. I will be back tomorrow with a few more posts. Stay tuned! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Do You Want to Make Money?

Change the way you invest! Hundreds of thousands of money managers don't understand how to manage money effectively. People blindly giving professional money managers that are not able to articulate the strategy they use to make the money they claim to make. It frustrates me beyond belief to hear professional money managers talk about a stock and their respective fundamentals and why you should should just blindly buy the stock based on their recommendation. No strategy talk whatsoever. Just blindly believe them and buy. Yet, they only have a 50/50 chance of success picking stocks and have no idea how to use options to increase their odds of success. I would never and I repeat NEVER even speak with a money manager if they were not … [Read more...]

An Interesting Chart

Will the whipsaw ever end? I will be back later this weekend with a few posts. Also, don't forget to check out my Free Weekly Report for Friday's High-Probability, Mean-Reversion indicator results and more. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]