August 20, 2017

The Reprieve is Here…But for How Long?

A Few Random Thoughts Last week we were witness to some of the most short-term overbought conditions seen all year. Now, post fed-taper, what should we expect to see? Well, for starters the week following options expiration, particularly triple witching, is historically bearish. Couple that with the unclosed gap in the S&P 500 (SPY) from 9/10 and I anticipate we will see $167.73 sooner than later. We worked off the overbought conditions in most of the major ETFs and actually closed the first gap from 9/16 today. Now we patiently wait for the other shoe to fall. All of our positions established last week are in great condition. Moreover, we might have the opportunity to sell more credit spreads to turn our verticals to iron … [Read more...]

The Only Way to Successfully Trade Options

Market Notes More of the same today. We have to remember that the week of triple witching is historically higher and expiration the percentage of bullishness increases even further. But, let's not forget that the week following triple witching is historically bearish. Over the last several days we have seen several unclosed gaps into short-term very overbought extremes. Now we have a few seasonal winds (triple witching) blowing our way as well. I expect to see a reversion to the mean over the next 1-5 trading days and intend on taking advantage with a few more credit spread trades, coupled with the possibility of a directional trade or two. Subscribers stay tuned! The Only Way To Successfully Trade Options  Any time you make a … [Read more...]

Strategies Excel During “Sell in May”…Here’s Why…

April expiration has finally passed. And it was a good one for our options strategies. All three strategies reaped profits. Again, the goal is to produce as much income as possible each and every expiration cycle. But, keeping risk-defined is the key to any successful long-term approach, so expectations should always be reasonable. No speculation...just high-probability strategies that hit lots of singles and doubles. The occasional home run happens, but it's an anomaly. Anyway...the expiration cycle witnessed a wide-range of short-term sentiment. Mid-way through the cycle most of the major indices were hitting all-time highs. But, as we have all witnessed over the past several week the bulls reign is over. Now all of the major … [Read more...]

Strategy Continues to Outperform – Up 28.0% Since Inception

A wonderful beginning indeed. The strategy had another successful trade marking the eighth straight winning trade since the strategy was initiated for a win ratio. The return - 28.2%. Check out the results (trades, returns, ratios, etc.) at the following link: High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy Obviously I am pleased with the win ratio (100%) since I initiated the High_-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy, but I am a realist. I realize there is no holy grail in trading. One thing I do know for certain is that I have a unique, and concrete, options trading strategy that makes the world of sense to me and I trade it to make money over the long-term. Furthermore, I realize that the less I trade, the better my strategy will … [Read more...]