August 20, 2017

“Moneyball” Takes Down Wall Street

Before I get started I wanted to let all of you know that I will be opening up my two (possibly three) strategies over the next week. So far, the interest has been overwhelming. I will be limiting the number of subscribers to keep emails down and to make this a very personal experience for subscribers. If you are interested or have any questions please do not hesitate to email me at crowderoptions(at) By now I am sure all of you are aware of statistics guru, Nate Silver. The unabashed numbers geek, professional poker player, baseball statistician and creator of the FiveThirtyEight blog on The New York Times website correctly predicted the outcome of all 50 states. In 2008 he accurately predicted 49 out of 50 states. There … [Read more...]

When Trading Options Use Probabilities to Your Advantage

I am often amazed by the  lack of common sense when it comes to investing. Investors seek the best possible information, unfortunately most turn to the wrong sources. For starters, turning on the television for investment advice, in most cases, is a big no no. Yet, how many people listen intently to the daily drivel coming out of screaming mouths on CNBC. Investors, particularly traders, should know that every trade spouted from these sources have a 50% chance of success. Add in transaction costs and the probability declines further. Yet, the majority of investors and traders take this approach, mostly because they aren't privy to any other form of investing. Self-directed investors aren't aware that there are strategies based purely … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator Screaming Short-Term Overbought

As the old Wall Street adage goes, "don't sell a dull market". The S&P 500 came into the holiday shortened week in a short-term "very oversold" extreme. So the bounce this past week came as no surprise. It was the magnitude of the bounce that surprised many. The S&P as seen through SPY climbed 3.7% in a little over 3 days. But now, the bears are salivating as the pot odds move back to their least over the short-term. As seen in the chart below, not only SPY, but all of the major market ETFs have pushed into a short-term overbought state. Moreover, several sectors have moved into a "very overbought" state. Couple the aforementioned extremes with strong overhead resistance and you can quickly see why the bears … [Read more...]