July 26, 2017

Options Indicator Signals Tech Overbought

Here's the list of the ETFs that make up the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator. Hopefully (time permitting), I will be back with another post later this evening. Stay tuned! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Short-Term Reprieve Occurs – Will It Continue?

The short-term reprieve that I mentioned in the Free Weekend Report (Sign-Up Free Here) occurred today and by the looks of it we could see more downside tomorrow. As I mentioned in the report "as for the current technical picture, the all of the major indices and most sectors are in a short-term "very overbought" state as we head into the week of options expiration. Not only are the major benchmarks in one of the most short-term overbought states that we have seen in quite some time, but we are now hitting strong overhead resistance with two unclosed gaps directly underneath. Combine all of the aforementioned and you can quickly see why the risk/reward scenario leans heavily towards a short-term reprieve next week." Now all of our … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability Mean-Reversion Options Indicator

[Read more...]

Options Trading Requires Patience

Market Mumbo Jumbo Yesterday, I stated the rally could be short-lived. The S&P 500 (SPY) moved lower to close Tuesday's upside gap and kept moving south as the trading day progressed. Not a good sign for the bulls. However, until the $125 level is broken the bulls remain in good standing. A push below $125 and I think a waterfall, capitulation type move could occur. If a sharp decline occurs I would suspect that SPY will see the 12/1 upside gap close at $118.03 (the high from 11/30). Again, as long as SPY is able to hold the March lows I think the market will be okay. Although, when I say okay, I mean a move back near the top of the established trading range – $125-$137. Let the range-bound trading begin. Options Indicator – … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Silver (SLV) Hits Another Short-Term Extreme

The last time Silver hit a short-term "very overbought" extreme, I called for a short-term reprieve in SLV and the High Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy made 19.8 % on the trade (you can check out the trade at my third-party monitoring service here). If the Silver ETF opens up tomorrow I will be making the same call so paid subscribers stay tuned for the potential for a real-time trade alert. As for the rest of the market, well, it seems as though everyone is anxiously waiting for Bernanke & friends to release some type of catalyst over the next two days. I expect to see the market move into the summer doldrums for various reasons immediately following (if not before) Bernanke's first press conference on Wednesday. Gold (GLD), … [Read more...]

Strategy Continues to Outperform the Market – Up 34.6%

I took a hiatus from my daily post yesterday so that I could evaluate the latest trades in my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy. I closed out my Silver (SLV), Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&p 500 (SPY) positions during the last two trading sessions for an nice overall return. Both the SLV (+19.8%) and IWM (+21.3%) trade were profitable. However, the SPY trade did not experience the same good fortune. The strategy experienced its first loss since it was initiated back in November as SPY lost 20.2%. The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy is now up 34.6% since it was initiated six months ago with a win ratio of 92.3%. So far the strategy is up 14.2% for the month April. Check out the results yourself. The performance … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy

Up, up and away! Low inflation, low interest rates, accommodative Fed policy, strong earnings and healthy corporate balance sheets have helped to keep the market racing higher. Or maybe it is just the Fed pumping money into the economy through QE2? Either way, the market has been on a historical tear over the past two years. Absolutely, nothing can hold this market down. The nuclear incident in northeast Japan remains unresolved. Coalition jets are bombing North Africa, namely Libya. More protests in Yemen, Syria and even Jordan. A grim UK budget prognosis. More Eurozone debt bailouts on the way in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. New home sales plunged to a historical low. Again, it doesn't matter - the markket … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator

Here are the current readings for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Oh yeah, if you haven't noticed the table is slightly different. I would love to know what you guys/girls think. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Also if you have any suggestions for ETFs that you would like to see on the list let me know. Just know that the bid-ask spread must be reasonable or i just isn't worth following because an options trade would not make sense when using the strategy. Liquidity is key. … [Read more...]