July 26, 2017

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Short-Term Reprieve Looks Imminent

It was another day of sideways trading. The market was able to hold gains for yet another day which was impressive given the short-term overbought extremes, strong overhead resistance and yesterday's huge upside gap. I am still leaning towards a close of the upside from yesterday which would bring SPY down to $117.25, DIA down to $112.21 and QQQ down to $54.66. I would expect that this occurs over the next 2-3 days, but Mr. Market always has a way of playing games with what should be obvious price levels. I found an interesting nugget from Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader.com today. "According to Bloomberg , at least 500 more stocks last traded on an uptick than a downtick on each session during the past week.  The 5-day average of … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy – Major Benchmarks Reach Short-Term Extreme

The S&P 500 (SPY) has pushed 11% higher since its low set last Tuesday. It has indeed been a "rip your face off" type of rally with many bears left for dead. I added two more positions today: one in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy and one in the Theta Driver Options Strategy. The latter certainly looks to be in much better shape at the moment, but I believe we will witness a decent pullback over the coming days. Why? As I said before, the major benchmarks are currently in a short-term overbought state, but now all of them what has been strong overhead resistance. Furthermore, we had a very large gap today in all of the major indices that went unclosed. Combine the three and the risk/reward leans heavily towards a … [Read more...]

My Favorite Options Strategies

News equals noise. When are people going to get it? The news means absolutely nothing to me as an options trader. The entire industry has been commoditized. And when I say this I mean that one offering (financial media outlet) is nearly indistinguishable from another. Why? Technological innovation. News is widely accessible and therefore basically the same everywhere. The only difference is how they market themselves and as a trader I just don't care about their marketing techniques. Nor do I care about the news that they spew out on a daily basis. As an options trader it doesn't matter to me. Fear is what sells. It's all over the news, every day, every hour. And while I do care about the macro-picture for my own self-interests, … [Read more...]

Responsible Options Strategies

I had the pleasure to speak with a gentleman from a prominent newsletter service this past week. It was interesting to see just how he traded and how his newsletter service and others that he was affiliated with used options. As I suspected - irresponsibly. And I told him so. His response - I was an idealist. An idealist? Why? Because I do not allow marketing efforts control my options strategies? Because I do not gamble with options by attempting to guess which way an earnings call will go? Because I do not buy out-of-the-money options in hopes that an option will move towards my chosen strike price? I could go on and on. I was amazed how little he knew about how to effectively trade options. He actually asked me about how I … [Read more...]

Options Strategies Continue to Roll

I am back after another short hiatus. We have had a few great trades over the past few weeks, one in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy (up 7.4% in September) and one in the Theta Driver Options Strategy (expires tomorrow with over a 12% gain). I will be sending out the Weekly Report that details each trade and the performance of each strategy. I was unable to get out the FREE Weekly Report last week due to unforeseen circumstances, but will have the my Expiration Report out Sunday. Stay tuned! I will be back with my regular blog posts next week. Thanks for being patient. Hey, at least we have some really great trades to talk about. Both strategies continue to move onward and upward and that is the most important of my … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator

I am going to keep it short tonight. As you can see per the chart below, all of the ETFs I follow in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy are in a neutral state. However, there are some very good opportunities in the Theta Driver Options Strategy and I plan on making a trade in the strategy tomorrow. I would expect after Big Ben speaks we will see a few short-term extremes enter the market which should give us a few potential set-ups in the HPMR strategy. I am still waiting patiently for a trade. Subscribers stay tuned, particularly those of you who are members of my Theta Driver strategy. Until then, Andy Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info on the social network as well. … [Read more...]

Credit Spread Opportunities Are Bountiful

The pre-market action has really left the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy with very little opportunities for entry. There are still a few potential trades in the work, but if August goes without a trade then so be it. I am not going to force a trade. Trading to fulfill some type of quota is ridiculous. Trading is not based on the calendar, it is based on opportunities and unfortunately the opportunities have been non-existent. However, as we all know they will be back and be back with vengeance. That just seems to be how the market and moreover, how the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy works. As for the Theta Driver strategy, the trade is currently worth $.09. The underlying of the trade is still well below the short … [Read more...]

Options Trade in the Works?

I am going to keep it short tonight. The market kicked up higher at the open and never turned back. As a result, I did not make a trade in either of the strategies today, but tomorrow is a new day and there are still quite a few viable trades out there as you can see in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion chart below. So, again, subscribers stay tuned. Market Mumbo Jumbo Daily options report VIX Crush - Fed Stimulus Theta and Time Decay If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info on the social network as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Options Trades in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategies

A trade in the High-Probability, Mean Reversion Strategy looks likely if IWM happens to open flat or open tomorrow. Of course, there are a few other thng is that need to line-up, but the first trade of a slow August seems likely. Subscribers stay tuned! Our latest Theta Driver Options trade looks very good. Last Monday, I placed our first trade for a credit of $0.25 and thanks to some help from the bears (although a flat to slightly higher market would have worked as well, just not so quickly) the credit spread is now worth less than $0.05. With only $0.05 and 25 days left until September expiration I will mostly likely lock in the gain for roughly a 9% gain (including commissions) and place another Theta Driver trade within the next few … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Advantages of Diversified Options Strategies

Before I get started I want to discuss a lingering frustration of mine - the financial services arena. Yesterday, I posted a WSJ interview with Mark Cuban. Mark had a few very insightful ideas for the public including "buy and hold is a crock of s#$!" and "diversification is for idiots." I definitely agree with Mark's first statement - buy and hold is no longer a viable strategy. However, I think he needs to expand on his last statement. While I do agree that diversification in stocks is well, not useful when applied in the typical manner. Because most over-diversify. And quite honestly, I don't bother investing in stocks. It ties up way too much of my capital and I can create far better statistical advantages using options rather than … [Read more...]