July 21, 2017

Ignore the Noise. Trade Strategies Based off Probabilities

"What do you think about the latest economic report, data coming out of Europe, etc?" That's a question I often receive. My typical response, I don't care. Okay, that may be a bit harsh, but it is true. For the most part I really don't care about the daily news that flows in and out of the market. I am an options trader. I trade strategies based off probabilities. I create statistical advantages based on my current market assumptions. We must realize that knowing what is going on in the news and knowing how to make money consistently are two separate things. For successful options investors it's about your strategy, your logic, your process, it doesn't matter what you think the market the latest economic report is going to say. I … [Read more...]

The 2011 Options Strategies Review

I just wanted to thank all of you for a wonderful 2011. My theory on how to effectively trade options is finally catching on and the response has been overwhelming. I continue to be amazed by all of the positive feedback. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Daily Thoughts Patience, patience, patience. I have been patiently waiting for one of the ETFs I follow to hit a short-term extreme and after today's huge rally we are finally beginning to see some short-term extremes enter the market. As a result, I will most likely be placing a trade in the Theta Driver strategy over the next few days and if we see a continuation of this beginning of the year rally we could also see a trade in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion … [Read more...]

An Interesting Chart

Will the whipsaw ever end? I will be back later this weekend with a few posts. Also, don't forget to check out my Free Weekly Report for Friday's High-Probability, Mean-Reversion indicator results and more. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Thank You Papandreou

I am going to keep it short and sweet tonight. I am amazed at just how many people I know that have turned bullish. Seriously, bullish? Absolutely, nothing has changed since a few months ago, if anything we have more clarity as to why this recent bounce was just a bear market rally. This euro crisis is far from over and I still think that the gap from 9/1/10, yes 9/10 is going to close before we move substantially higher. But, people are easily swayed by a sharp rally. So, as I type this futures are substantially lower, again. And, my guess is that the selling continues throughout the evening and into the open tomorrow. Check out the following vid: Easy Come , Easy Go If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for … [Read more...]

Short-Term Reprieve Occurs – Now What?

In my Free Weekly Report this past weekend I spoke about how I thought a short-term reprieve was lurking. I spoke about a return to 1220 and well, we are here already. Now what? The market gapped significantly lower at the open and never looked back. Now all of the ETFs I follow for the options strategies are well within a neutral state. The only ETF that has pushed into a short-term oversold state - TBT. And if the RSI (2) of TBT moves even lower tomorrow I will most likely take another position. Other than that I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next set-up. According to Jason Goepfert: "The Beta Chase Index jumped above 6 on Monday, very unusual for a down day in the market. Part of the reason was that … [Read more...]

Back in a Neutral State. Where Now?

The market moved decisively lower today and while most think it was just a normal decline I think there could be more ahead. Tim Knight of Slope of Hope recently stated that he thought the 1223 area on the /ES would act as a strong area of support and I think he is correct in his assumption. If we break that area then I would expect to see a decisive decline as we head into December. The true test will be once the market reaches its next short-term oversold state. If the bounce is violent then, yes, I would expect to see another push higher into November expiration. But, if the the bounce is weak, then bears should have good reason to rejoice as another swift decline could be in order. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for … [Read more...]

More Downside To Come?

Today was a banner day for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy. The IWM puts that I purchased near the close yesterday closed the day up 27.9% and if we continue to move to the downside tomorrow, which looks highly likely we could see even greater gains. My thought is that we will close the gap in IWM, DIA and SPY that occurred last Friday. This would take the major market ETFs to $69.73, $115.77 and $122.10, respectively. If we happen to close the aforementioned gaps then the next move could take the major market benchmarks down to close the gap from 10/10. A move like this over the next few weeks would lead to extraordinary gains in the strategy. A move to close the gap from last Friday could lead to us to a … [Read more...]

Options Indicator Signals Tech Overbought

Here's the list of the ETFs that make up the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator. Hopefully (time permitting), I will be back with another post later this evening. Stay tuned! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy

I hope all of you with a bearish lean are surviving this absolutely crazy market. I know that it has been the most difficult month for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy in since its inception. The ongoing nine day rally has pushed both of our positions in losing territory, yet I am still confident that the performance will improve as we move towards the latter part of the month. No one said trading was easy, especially options trading, but it is all about perseverance . As for the Theta Driver Options Strategy we are well on our way to the third straight month of gains. All of the major indices have moved into short-term "very overbought" extremes, while hitting strong overhead resistance. Moreover, we have two large … [Read more...]

Options Offer Tremendous Opportunities

I am always amazed how large the opportunity to "make it big" factors into the great magnetism of the market. The belief that anyone, from any background can be successful and make tons of money has quite the allure. But, in all of this euphoria people neglect to think about all of those that failed before them. And believe me the failure rate is high. Yet, investors/traders continue to choose the most difficult of investments to trade - stocks. Stock-only traders are at a complete disadvantage because they have no way to trade the randomness of the market. They have a 50/50 chance of success for each and every trade. Bottom line - stock investors/traders are truly at a disadvantage. Again, stock investors only have two ways to make a … [Read more...]