August 22, 2017

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. USO Trade Monday?

Yesterday, I mentioned how several of the ETFs that I follow in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy had moved into a short-term “very overbought” extreme. USO and XLE continued to push further into an extreme state today which will most likely lead to a short-term position in the strategies early next week. If one or both open the week higher I will most likely send out a real-time alert to my loyal subscribers. So, if you are a subscriber stay tuned early next week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) has now advanced 13 out of the past 15 trading days.  This is the first time since 1971 the market has seen a streak like this extend into December.  The other dates were 12/8/59, 12/2/68, 12/7/70 and 12/15/71.  The first two led to almost immediate, and severe declines.  The latter two led to a continued, and impressive rally. We shall see soon enough how this one plays out, but given the move into a short-term “very overbought”

There are a few other bearish indicators that have moved into a short-term extreme which I will mention in my upcoming monthly report.

If you were unable to check out the results last night here they are: High-Probability, Mean-Reversion ETF Options Strategy

I am going to keep it short tonight. The holidays are here and I am anxious to spend some quality time with my family. I hope all of you have a safe and wonderful holiday weekend.

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Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 12/23/10

Benchmark ETFs

* S&P 500 (SPY) – 72.5 (overbought)
* Dow Jones (DIA) –78.9 (overbought)
* Russell 2000 (IWM) – 70.2 (overbought)

* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 64.2 (neutral)

Sector ETFs

* Biotech (IBB) – 88.3 (very overbought)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 57.5 (neutral)
* Health Care (XLV) – 63.3 (neutral)
* Financial (XLF) – 69.2 (neutral)
* Energy (XLE) – 80.4 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.5
Gold Miners (GDX) – 29.9 (oversold)
* Industrial (XLI) – 67.4 (neutral)
* Materials (XLB) – 84.1 (very overbought)
* Real Estate (IYR) – 58.2 (neutral)
* Retail (RTH) – 75.5 (overbought)
* Semiconductor (SMH) – 48.6 (neutral)
United States Oil Fund (USO) – 86.0 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.7
* Utilities (XLU) – 63.6 (neutral)

International ETFs

* Brazil (EWZ) – 38.6 (neutral)
* China 25 (FXI) – 37.2 (neutral)
* EAFE (EFA) – 53.7 (neutral)
* South Korea (EWY) – 67.7 (neutral)

Commodity ETFs

* Gold (GLD) – 42.5 (neutral)

Ultra Extremes

* Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 16.1 (very oversold)
* Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 83.1 (very overbought)
* UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 67.4 (neutral)
* Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 81.6 (very overbought)
* Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 19.2 (very oversold)
* UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 52.9 (neutral)

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