August 17, 2017

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – TBT Moves Into An Extreme State.

It has been a strange few weeks in the market.

We had several trading days of strong resistance in the S&P 500 (SPY) and have basically sold off since the beginning of earnings season. Is it me, or does the market almost seems too predictable at the moment.

Will the market truly be this simple to predict over the coming months?

I am certainly not claiming to have the magic crystal ball, but at the moment the market just feels heavy and tired.

With the old Wall Street adage about to grace us with its seasonal presence, I feel like we have seen the highs for a while. I expect to see a decent decline during the summer doldrums, which I think will offer a very good buying opportunity over the long-term. We could see a few gaps close that were created months ago. I to plan to discuss the gaps in an upcoming weekly newsletter edition stay tuned. There just isn’t enough room here.

However, I am not overly concerned with the long-term , at least in my strategy. I only want to take advantage of short-term high-probability set-ups created by a variety of extremes in the market.

This is one of the reasons that led me to options. Options, when used in the proper way, allow you to profit from bullish, bearish or sideways price action. I truly doesn’t matter.

Over the coming months, in my free weekly newsletter, I plan to speak more about various options strategies and how to apply them to current market conditions.

Believe me I have a few favorites, including credit spreads, iron condors and other premium selling strategies that I often use with my favorite strategy – the HP-MR strategy.

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Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 4/19/11