July 28, 2017

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Materials Sector (XLB) Moves Further Into Overbought Territory.

I am still sitting on my hands waiting to take a position. I have mentioned a few key statistics over the past few days and I expect to see these stats come to fruition as we enter 2011.

Yesterday, I mentioned how a position in XLB looked possible. As my subscribers know by now, no position was taken, but that does not mean that I am not still watching the ETF closely for a potential opportunity. Subscribers, you should still be on the lookout for a possible trade alert.

The market remains stagnant as volume and volatility continue to be minimal. This is no surprise, volume and volatility are typically quite low during the last week of the year.

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Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 12/28/10

Benchmark ETFs

* S&P 500 (SPY) – 76.1 (overbought)
* Dow Jones (DIA) –74.0 (overbought)
*
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 64.6 (neutral)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 55.7 (neutral)

Sector ETFs

* Biotech (IBB) – 66.4 (neutral)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 42.4 (neutral)
* Health Care (XLV) – 57.0 (neutral)
* Financial (XLF) – 76.0 (overbought)
* Energy (XLE) – 73.7 (neutral)
* Gold Miners (GDX) – 62.1 (neutral)
* Industrial (XLI) – 67.1 (neutral)
* Materials (XLB) – 87.1 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 97.9
* Real Estate (IYR) – 72.0 (overbought)
* Retail (RTH) – 74.0 (overbought)
* Semiconductor (SMH) – 43.8 (neutral)
United States Oil Fund (USO) – 73.2 (overbought)
* Utilities (XLU) – 73.4 (overbought)

International ETFs

* Brazil (EWZ) – 34.9 (neutral)
* China 25 (FXI) – 28.4 (oversold)
* EAFE (EFA) – 50.2 (neutral)
* South Korea (EWY) – 68.3 (neutral)

Commodity ETFs

* Gold (GLD) – 75.5 (overbought)

Ultra Extremes

* Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 25.5 (oversold)
* Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 73.2 (overbought)
* UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 58.6 (neutral)
* Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 83.9 (very overbought)
* Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 17.1 (very oversold)
* UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 62.8 (neutral)

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