August 17, 2017

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – EFA Trade Still In Play

Today the major market indices bounced off of short-term “very oversold” extremes and pushed the them back into a short-term neutral state.

The EFA trade obviously benefited from the surge higher and is now well within reach of a nice profit, especially if the futures (which are significantly higher as I write this) hold into the open tomorrow.

Tomorrow also marks triple witching, which is when stock index options, stock index futures and stock options all expire. Some traders refer to the day as “Freaky Friday”.

Triple witching brings volatility (like we haven’t seen enough of that this week) and I expect we will see plenty of that tomorrow as everything expires and headline news continues to pour in regarding the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and the catastrophic aftermath that has plagued Japan.

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Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 3/17/11

Benchmark ETFs

* S&P 500 (SPY) – 36.5 (neutral)
* Dow Jones (DIA) 36.4 very (neutral)
*Russell 2000 (IWM) – 25.9 (oversold)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 27.5 (oversold)

Sector ETFs

*Biotech (IBB) – 33.1 (neutral)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 41.6 (neutral)
* Health Care (XLV) – 36.2  (neutral)
* Financial (XLF) – 36.1 (neutral)
* Energy (XLE) – 54.0 (neutral)
* Gold Miners (GDX) – 28.3 (oversold)
* Industrial (XLI) – 41.6 (neutral)
* Materials (XLB) – 44.8  (neutral)
*Real Estate (IYR) – 39.3  (neutral)
* Retail (RTH) – 21.5 (oversold)
* Semiconductor (SMH) – 28.6  (oversold)
* United States Oil Fund (USO) – 52.4 (neutral)
* Utilities (XLU) – 21.8 (oversold)

International ETFs

* Brazil (EWZ) – 31.3 (neutral)
* China 25 (FXI) – 29.7 (oversold)
* EAFE (EFA) – 37.2 (neutral)
* South Korea (EWY) – 49.9 (neutral)

Commodity ETFs

* Gold (GLD) – 41.4 (neutral)

Ultra Extremes

* Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 72.4 (overbought)
* Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 27.1 (oversold)
*UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 26.4 (oversold)
* Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 35.1 (neutral)
* Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 62.9 (neutral)
* UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 31.4 (neutral)

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