August 22, 2017

Market Remains Range-Bound – Options Strategy Remains Patient

The anticipated bounce occurred today. However, I would not get overly excited because the rally could be short-lived.

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped higher at the open today and never moved lower to close the gap. I would expect to see a close at $128.24 in SPY before the market is able to make any ground. We are already nearing an oversold state in my shortest-term indicators, so it could be a tough few days for the bulls. Although, as long as SPY is able to hold the March lows I think the market could be okay. When I say okay, I mean a move back near the top of the established trading range – $125-$137.

If SPY pushed through strong support at the $125 level then I think we could se a waterfall decline that could take us as low as  $118 in SPY.

Options Indicator – Overbought – Oversold

All of the ETFs I follow in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy have moved back into a short-term neutral state. With that being said, I will be patiently waiting on the sidelines until an ETF moves into a short-term extreme. Patience is by far the hardest aspect of trading. Inherently trading is exhilarating so it makes perfect sense to want to do it as frequently as possible. Unfortunately, that goes against the main goal of any strategy which is to make money. Wait, wait, wait and then pounce on a high-probability opportunity. That is how money is made trading – at least if you have a long-term approach to creating and more importantly accumulating wealth.

As for the following I guess I can’t reiterate my sentiment enough.

I do find it interesting that over the years, when these lulls do occur that some subscribers flee. They want action. The are too short-sighted by the the excitement of trading options. Believe me, we have all been there. If they could only realize that patience coupled with sound risk-management is what makes an options strategy successful.

Remember, CASH IS A POSITION.

You can see all of the performance results for the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy here.

Daily Options Links of Interest

Summary

Same message: Not much has changed over the past few weeks – range-bound trading persists. I appears we could see the markets move sideways for a few more months. Are the summer doldrums already upon us? How long can SPY stay in this range of roughly $126 to $137? The question is, while I continue trading extremes in the HPMR strategy , how can I take advantage of the range bound movement at the same time. You guessed it – a credit spread! I will discuss this further in Weekly Options Report.

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High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator