As for the strategies, well, it has been quite some time since our last trade. While I am not concerned (just look at the overall performance over the past three years while the rest iof the market has been tumbling) I know many of you have issues with the lack of trading. As it states on the website, the ETF Extremes strategy can go months without a trade, ultimately it is the long-term performance that matters. If you are looking for a short-term fix then this is not the strategy for you. I have seen way too many options strategies do well over a course of a few months only to blow up and then proceed to take heavy losses. I will not accept that as a strategy. I am in this for the long haul. Remember, this is a marathon and not a sprint.

Overbought-Oversold levels for May 27, 2009

ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy

* S&P 500 (SPY) - 46.3 (neutral)
* Dow Jones (DIA) - 43.6  (neutral)
* Russell 2000 (IWM) - 52.0 (neutral)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 60.6 (neutral)

Other ETFs 

* Ultra Long (SSO) - 45.7 (neutral)
* Ultra Short (SDS) - 51.5 (neutral)

The market shot back up today and into what I consider an area of strong resistance at the 910 level on the S&P. As seen below the indexes are currently near an overbought level so I expect to see a short-term pullback. Moreover, we are entering a period of holiday seasonality that has historically displayed a bearish bias leading up to the holiday and a strong bullish slant two to five days after the holiday. I think history could repeat itself again this year but nly time will tell. For the moment, I am watching the 910-875 are in the S&P and a breach and hold above/below those levels would lead me to look further into the next short-term move. 

A move back to a firm neutral state should lead to our first official Iron Condor trade (Insiders Only). I will have more details about the specifics of the trade tomorrow, hopefully intraday, but don’t hold me to it. 

Overbought-Oversold levels for May 18, 2009

ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy

* S&P 500 (SPY) - 60.7 (neutral)
* Dow Jones (DIA) - 64.1  (neutral)
* Russell 2000 (IWM) - 56.5 (neutral)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 60.6 (neutral)

Other ETFs 

* Ultra Long (SSO) - 60.4 (neutral)
* Ultra Short (SDS) - 37.2 (neutral)

As forthe Iron Condor strategy, we had our first successful trade several weeks ago and know I will look carefully to find another opportunity for our next trade. Ideally, I would like to see a push back into neutral territory in SPY and then I will start to look at the prices. I will then use a delta between .10 and .06. I will talk about this further over the coming days. Stay tuned!!!

Have a great night!

Andy

Overbought-Oversold levels for March 23, 2009 for the ETF Extremes Strategy (available only to subscribers)

I am currently offering a deal that is available on the Subscribe page. It is a deal that will run through the February expiration cycle and will consist of all of my strategies, plus my new Iron Condor strategy for $39.95. Yes, $39.95. I know I am practically giving it away, but admittedly I am close to filling my cap for the newsletter so I thought this would be a good way to encourage some of my readers over the last three years to join the newsletter. Once the Insiders page is complete I think all of you will be life long members. 

Subscribers that are currently in two or more strategies, you may go ahead and cancel your other subscriptions and keep the ETF EXtremes. You may still autotrade all three strategies under the new subscription package.  

Anyway, tell your friends because this will not last. 2008 was a great year for our ETF Extremes strategy and I think those of you who have been in it for the long haul can speak volumes about the overall returns. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to email me. I will be happy to answer any of your questions or comments.

Have a great evening!

Andy

Hopefully, 2009 will be a successful as 2008. Cetainly the changes that we are making will provide more pertinent info to the trader/investor. Stay tuned!

Andy

Andy

I am making some big changes to the newsletter for 2009 so get ready. Subscribers will find that the changes will create much more value to their current subscriptions. I will also be offering some combo deals, plus quarterly and annual subscriptions. I will also be offering some strategy updates which I know will please many of you. Stay tuned!

I will be taking a few weeks off from blogging to spend some quality time with my family. Volume promises to be low which means market action will be highly unpredictable over the next 6 trading days. However, I would like to leave you with an interesting seasonal tendency that might just please a few of you short-term bulls.

“On a seasonal basis, next week should see exceptionally low volume with it trickling lower as the weeks comes to an end. This is typical for this time of year. The last 7 trading days of December have finished in positive territory 64 out of the last 80 years (80%) in the S&P with an average return of 1.2%. Not too shabby. The max gain was 2.0% and the max loss was -1.0.”

Have a wonderful holiday and a happy New Year! See you in 2009!

Kindest,

Andy

I guess I should start by pointing out that the Health Care sector (XLV) was able to sustain a short-term overbought reading over the last two days which, well, could lead to another leg higher for the overall market, at least over the short-term. I think if and when one or both of the aforementioned sectors hits a “very overbought” state we will see another short-term decline for the overall market.

Right now my I am seeing a short-term bias to the upside particularly for the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ). As you can see (hopefully the chart is clear) or not, I am watching the $29.00 area (more specifically $29.25) as the first area of support in the QQQQ.

If that level does not hold, well, I think we might quickly see the tech-heavy benchmark move back down to the $27 area. Just look at how the Q’s have performed around the $27 level. It looks to be a very strong area of support.

Also, I would like to point out that we have reached another inflection point- the 50-day moving average.

The two other times that that it hit this area over the past year was right before the June earnings and the September earnings, both times it failed and failed miserably. Will the pattern continue? I will have more on how the market has performed after hitting the 50-day MA for the first time in over two months. Stay tuned!

I have been stating over the past few months that I expected to see a move to the upside through the New Year with another test of the recent lows as we enter the first month or two of 2009. My guess is that it will occur sooner than later, but only time will tell.

I will have more tomorrow on this subject plus a seasonal look at the next two weeks. Get ready bulls?

Overbought-Oversold levels for December 18, 2008

ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy

* S&P 500 (SPY) - 44.7 (neutral)
* Dow Jones (DIA) - 45.5 (neutral)
* Russell 2000 (IWM) - 60.8 (neutral)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 50.5 (neutral)

Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy

* Biotech (IBB) - 70.3 (overbought)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 53.4 (neutral)
* Health Care (XLV) - 74.0 (overbought)
* Financial (XLF) - 49.9 (neutral)
* Energy (XLE) - 36.9 (neutral)
* Industrial (XLI) - 45.5 (neutral)
* Materials (XLB) - 50.9 (neutral)
* Real Estate (IYR) - 51.1 (neutral)
* Retail (RTH) - 60.4 (neutral)
* Utilities (XLU) - 49.2 (neutral)

Ultra Extremes (Insiders Page Only)

* Ultra Long (SSO) - 50.9 (neutral)
* Ultra Short (SDS) - 46.3 (neutral)

If you would like to follow my strategies with real-time alerts or have them auto-traded by a participating broker please click the following link! Try my options trading strategies.

Furthermore, the Sector ETF Extremes still has a few ETFs held in a short-term overbought state today. The Health Care (XLV) and Materials (XLB) sectors currently have my attention and much like the ETF Extremes options strategy we could potentially see a trade over the next few trading sessions.

I really do not have much to say tonight. I have been blogging every day (well almost) for the last three years and I think I have hit one of those walls. It typically occurs around the holidays and often the New Year brings fresh ideas and more interesting content.

Have a great night!

Overbought-Oversold levels for December 17, 2008

ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy

* S&P 500 (SPY) - 60.2 (neutral)
* Dow Jones (DIA) - 58.3 (neutral)
* Russell 2000 (IWM) - 63.5 (neutral)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 59.8 (neutral)

Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy

* Biotech (IBB) - 69.6 (neutral)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 69.8 (neutral)
* Health Care (XLV) - 70.5 (overbought)
* Financial (XLF) - 57.5 (neutral)
* Energy (XLE) - 62.9 (neutral)
* Industrial (XLI) - 66.2 (neutral)
* Materials (XLB) - 72.2 (overbought)
* Real Estate (IYR) - 66.4 (neutral)
* Retail (RTH) - 64.3 (neutral)
* Utilities (XLU) - 44.5 (neutral)

Ultra Extremes (Insiders Page Only)

* Ultra Long (SSO) - 59.6 (neutral)
* Ultra Short (SDS) - 36.2 (neutral)

If you would like to follow my strategies with real-time alerts or have them auto-traded by a participating broker please click the following link! Try my options trading strategies.

All of the major benchmarks have moved close to a  short-term overbought state after the nice rally today. The market moved higher at the open today and never looked back as the day progressed. The Fed announcement was just icing on the cake.

Now the S&P has moved close to the highs from last week. This area should act as a decent area of overhead resistance while the 900, 880 and most notable, the 850 area should act as potential areas of support.

I would also like to point out that a few of the sector ETFs that I follow have officially moved into a hort-term overbought state. That being said there is a very good chance to see our first trade in a few months in the Sector ETF Extremes strategy over the next few trading sessions. Subscribers stay tuned!

One last note is that we closed near the highs of the day today so we also have the potential to witness a Gap Fade trade tomorrow. Could we see the trifecta tomorrow? It sure would be nice, especially if they were all profitable signals. Subscribers, as always I will send out a real-time trade alert if and when a trade occurs. Again, stay tuned.

Have a great night!

Andy

Overbought-Oversold levels for December 16, 2008

ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy

* S&P 500 (SPY) - 65.9 (neutral)
* Dow Jones (DIA) - 67.5 (neutral)
* Russell 2000 (IWM) - 68.9 (neutral)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 66.7 (neutral)

Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy

* Biotech (IBB) - 68.0 (neutral)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 68.3 (neutral)
* Health Care (XLV) - 77.6 (overbought)
* Financial (XLF) - 59.9 (neutral)
* Energy (XLE) - 56.2 (neutral)
* Industrial (XLI) - 66.0 (neutral)
* Materials (XLB) - 71.9 (overbought)
* Real Estate (IYR) - 63.7 (neutral)
* Retail (RTH) - 64.2 (neutral)
* Utilities (XLU) - 58.9 (neutral)

Ultra Extremes (Insiders Page Only)

* Ultra Long (SSO) - 65.1 (neutral)
* Ultra Short (SDS) - 31.5 (neutral)

If you would like to follow my strategies with real-time alerts or have them auto-traded by a participating broker please click the following link! Try my options trading strategies.