Please let me know if you have any questions.

Kindest,

Andy

In the Overbought/Oversold section of my Weekly Report (subscribers only) almost every ETF that I follow had reached a short-term overbought state, so a trade could be right around the corner, but the 8/11 gap is still lingering overhead and I would feel more comfortable taking a position when that gap fills. As I stated before once that gap fills, I think a move back down to fill the 9/1 gap could occur.

Another reason I think a decline is imminent is that volatility is giving another sell signal similar to the ones back in January and April. The VIX has once again pushed below its lower Bollinger Band. There have been seven other occurrences when the VIX has dropped below the lower half of its Bollinger Band while below the S&P is below its 200-day Moving average and only once was SPY higher a week later. The average loss one week later was 2.4%.

I hope all of you are trading well.

Kindest,

Andy

Serge from ETF Corner has a chart that is in line with my thoughts for the market over the short-term. http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/09/spy-if-i-had-a-crystal-ball-.html

I am currently sitting on my hands waiting patiently for a set-up that fits my style of trading. High-probability, mean-reversion trading is my game, so I am waiting for one of the ETFs that I follow to hit a short-term extreme and then hopefully a few other of my favorite indicators to fall in line so I can take a position. Currently, there is nothing out there that suits my fancy. Had we moved higher to close the 8/11 gap today I would have taken a position and if we do happen to reach that level this week I will most likely take a position so stay tuned. Subscribers, be on the lookout for a real-time trade alert and a tweet. Both should come directly to your email and cell phone.

For those subscribers who have yet to join my twitter feed, please do so – you will gain valuable insight into my daily thoughts on the market, etc. Let me know if you need help joining. I do not want you to miss out on one of the wonderful benefits of my service.

Also, I have a few spots left so if you want to join let me know. You can join here. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to email me.

Kindest,

Andy

Kindest,

Andy

If you look at the trades you will notice that I had a total of 9 trades in the month of August, three of which were closing trades from late July. Of the 9, only one, was an outright loser and one was break-even, but with commissions the latter trade was indeed was a loser. The loss was -64.3%, but as you can see my position-size was calculated (roughly 6%), so the loss was minimal to My Options Portfolio as I went on to gain over 15% for the month.

In my opinion, position-sizing is the most important aspect of trading. Remember, this is a marathon and not a sprint and by limiting your exposure to any given trade, you allow yourself to absorb a losing trade without devastating your portfolio. I cannot emphasize this enough and is why I always encourage a well-thought out position-size plan before you initiate your journey into trading. Of course, everyone will have different position-size plan because everyone has a different risk-tolerance. You need to figure out just how risk-averse you are as a trader/investor and, in my opinion, once you have figured that out, you should proceed to take another step that errs on the conservative side. Believe me, it pays in the long run to start out conservative and then increase your risk rather than the reverse.

As part of my newsletter I send out real-time trade alerts that include my position-size. Of course, this is not advice, it is just to show my subscribers how I use position-size in my own account. As I stated earlier, it is up to you, the individual investor to do your due diligence and figure out what is best for your given situation. You earned this money, treat it with respect.

Anyway, I once again wanted to thank all of you who have signed up for my newsletter service. I truly appreciate the loyalty and support. Hopefully, I can provide some insight through my newsletter that will help you prosper over the long-term using options. I still have a few spots remaining and will continue to take requests that will be added to a waiting list. I have decided to limit my service to 100 subscribers. Smaller is better.

Market Commentary

As for the current state of the market, well, you have to be encouraged by the gap today and the sharp push higher if you are a bear. Yes, I said it, a bear. The push moved the market closer to a short-term overbought state. Moreover, we officially closed the gap from 8/24. However, I think the 8/11 gap still might be a push to close ($11.37), at least during this latest mini-rally. I would love to see a gap tomorrow morning, because I will certainly take a position if indeed that occurs. I am not sure I would hold it into Friday as the much-anticipated August unemployment report will certainly move the market sharply and I typically do not like to get caught up in the game of guessing the report. It is typically a futile attempt, but if the technicals are already in an extreme when the market enters such a report I will sometimes take a smaller position. We shall see soon enough. The next few days should be quite interesting.

Kindest,

Andy

SPY Trade

Subscribers

To all of my wonderful and loyal subscribers I want to thank you for all of your support over the past week. The response has been overwhelming. I will be sending out all my service details in the first Weekly Newsletter Report which will come to via email Sunday. Until then, if you are a subscriber, do not forget to sign up for my subscriber-only access twitter page. Sign up for a twitter account then go here http://twitter.com/acrowder. I will allow you access. This will be a key area for my subscribers so don’t miss out. However, the key elements of my service (newsletter, real-time trade alerts) will still be sent out through email (twitter as well). I want to make my service as tech and user friendly as possible. Access to my information is key and I want it performed in a timely manner.

Again thanks to all of you – subscribers, loyal readers, etc.. I appreciate all of the wonderful feedback. Keep it coming! I hope through your participation that I can make this an incredibly unique and most important, prosperous for all of us. My performance speaks for itself.

Kindest,

Andy

You can see all of the trades here and all of the trades verified at my Thinkorswim account (scroll down the page at the aforementioned link to see all of my trades).

Over the past few months, I have had numerous requests to initiate a newsletter service that follows my trades in real-time and discusses the options strategies, technical indicators, and sentiment indicators that I incorporate in my trading. The response has been overwhelming and certainly a wonderful surprise. The kind words and encouragement regarding my options trading and the strategies I use have certainly been a positive reinforcement after 10+ years of trading options.

I hope that now I can prosper and share my trading ideas alongside of all of you who have encouraged me over the past few months. Again, the response has been overwhelming and as a result I have decided to limit my newsletter to 50-100 subscribers. I hope this will not disappoint those of you who are unable to get in. If you are unable to get in please email me and I will add you to a waiting list.

Service details below.

Newsletter Service Details

• 3-10 Options Trades Per Month – my proprietary trading system allows me to generate consistent winning trades, and as a member you will have full access to those trades the minute I post them.
• Real-time Trade alerts – get every trade update the instant I post it, sent right to your email inbox and twitter account. Trades are also updated live on my website.
• Crowder Options Strategy Guide – a concise introductory guide that gives you some insight into how I trade.
• Market commentary – I update my market outlook daily (and sometimes more) here on my blog, and only members get access to my inside perspective on twitter.
• Weekly Newsletter – includes weekly RSI overbought/oversold levels on 15-20 of the most liquid ETFs
• Access – I am available any time to answer your questions about my trades, my options strategies, and my thinking about the markets. Whether you’re new to options trading or are an inquisitive seasoned pro, I am glad to hear from you and will help in any way I can.

If you wish to subscribe, click on the Subscribe Here link below. Also, if you have any questions or comments please do not hesitate to email me at andy.crowder@gmail.com.

Subscribe Here!

SPY Trade

Stay tuned for the newsletter out today plus an end of the day post. Kindest, Andy

SPY Trade

I have also been looking at a few Iron Condor trades, but I will save my thoughts until a later date.

I hope all of you are having a wonderful start to the week and stay tuned for my newsletter tomorrow.

Until then have a wonderful night!

Kindest,

Andy

Anyway, I will have my service details out to everyone by Wednesday of this week so check your emails.

As for the market, I have spent the day going through charts and mostly sitting on hands. I am currently leaning towards a short-term decline, but I want to see a bit more to the upside before I take a position.

I hope all of you are well and thank you all for the kind words over the past week. I look forward to prospering on this long-term journey together.

Kindest,

Andy