April 24, 2017

Archives for November 2014

One Anomaly After Another

It’s been a while since my last post. In fact, it’s been exactly one month. During that time I received the following email from a long-standing subscriber: I'm sure that you don't need reinforcement for your strategies, but the following summary of SPY by Tom Sosnoff pretty much echoes your take on the current situation. Since October expiration, yesterday’s rally in the SPY marked 12 out of 16 days it’s gone up. Assuming that there’s a 50/50 chance that the SPY will go up or down on a given day, there’s about a 2.78% probability of having only 4 down days out of 16. And it’s unlikely even if you don’t believe that the probability is exactly 50/50. If that weren’t unlikely enough, the SPY is up over 8% since Oct expiration. … [Read more...]