June 27, 2017

Archives for September 2013

The Selling Continues…But for How Long?

We've seen quite the reprieve in the S&P 500 (SPY) from the closing high set back on September 19th. And as you can see (and confirmed in the High-Probability table below) this has pushed the ETF into a short-term oversold state. The question is how do we approach the situation? The answer...spreads mixed in with some short-term directional trades. Knowing that I am predominantly a high-probability, spread trader I only care about the next 30 -50 days. The premium left in  SPY (due to its relatively low implied volatility) for the October expiration is probably limited, so I would probably look towards November as it has over 40 days left until expiration. That should create adequate premium that will also allow us to create a … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator

If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t, join my Twitter feed or Facebook. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

TBT and UNG

Quick update... Both Natural Gas (UNG) and Ultra-Short Bonds (TBT) look ripe for a few bull put spreads. I will be discussing both in my weekend report, Vertically-Inclined. Have a good night! -A   If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t, join my Twitter feed or Facebook. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

The Money Chart and a Few Words on IWM

Just a quick post tonight. I wanted to at least get the High-Probability chart up tonight. The ability of IWM to remain in an overbought state while everything else is selling off has been, well, amazing to watch over the short-term. I'm very interested to see how it plays out. We are seeing some really bearish intermediate-term indicators moving into the market. One thing is certain, even with another short-term push higher in IWM, a bear call spread seems very appropriate at the moment. So subscribers, stay tuned for a potential trade alert over the next few days. If the price action allows, I plan on making several more trades for the October and November expiration cycles. Anyway, I hope to have a bit more info in tomorrow's … [Read more...]

A Lesson Worth Learning…Video: How the Economy Works by Ray Dalio

I was made aware of this by my friend over at The Slope of Hope, Tim Knight. Check it out it's well worth the effort. If you are a believer in a statistical approach towards investing please do not hesitate to try my options strategies. I use simple mean-reversion coupled with probabilities for each and every trade. Give it a try, it’s free for 30 days. If you haven’t, join my Twitter feed or Facebook. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

The Reprieve is Here…But for How Long?

A Few Random Thoughts Last week we were witness to some of the most short-term overbought conditions seen all year. Now, post fed-taper, what should we expect to see? Well, for starters the week following options expiration, particularly triple witching, is historically bearish. Couple that with the unclosed gap in the S&P 500 (SPY) from 9/10 and I anticipate we will see $167.73 sooner than later. We worked off the overbought conditions in most of the major ETFs and actually closed the first gap from 9/16 today. Now we patiently wait for the other shoe to fall. All of our positions established last week are in great condition. Moreover, we might have the opportunity to sell more credit spreads to turn our verticals to iron … [Read more...]

The Right (and Wrong) Way to Approach Options Trading

I just want to start off with a few random thoughts. Enjoy the post and as always, please do not hesitate to email me with any questions or comments.  September expiration has finally passed us by. It was a rather smooth month until Helicopter Ben stepped in this past Wednesday. Of course, the bulls were certainly more than ecstatic about the results. But, the move was short-lived and as we enter post triple witching we should expect to see further declines. On second thought, Ben's message might have been one of the best things to happen to the bears in quite some time. Couple the aforementioned with the fact that we are witnessing record inflows into funds and you start to get the sense that the bears might have a turn … [Read more...]

The Only Way to Successfully Trade Options

Market Notes More of the same today. We have to remember that the week of triple witching is historically higher and expiration the percentage of bullishness increases even further. But, let's not forget that the week following triple witching is historically bearish. Over the last several days we have seen several unclosed gaps into short-term very overbought extremes. Now we have a few seasonal winds (triple witching) blowing our way as well. I expect to see a reversion to the mean over the next 1-5 trading days and intend on taking advantage with a few more credit spread trades, coupled with the possibility of a directional trade or two. Subscribers stay tuned! The Only Way To Successfully Trade Options  Any time you make a … [Read more...]