August 17, 2017

Archives for January 2012

Why a Short-Term Decline is Highly-Probable

We witnessed another upside gap today and in my opinion the bears were handed a gift, at least for the short-term. Most of the highly- liquid ETFs I follow here at Crowder Options have pushed into a short-term overbought extreme, with several actually reaching a very overbought extreme. Typically, when we see this type of price action, that is an upside gap into overbought to very overbought territory at strong overhead resistance, a short-term reprieve is to be expected. However, if you recall, I expected to see  a reprieve after last Tuesday's large upside gap, but the gap in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (one of my positions at the moment) has yet to close. But, now that we have seen the all of the major ETFs, SPY, DIA, IWM and … [Read more...]

Payroll Probabilities. Ready to Employ Options Strategies?

Jason Goepfert of came out tonight with some interesting statistics on how the S&P has performed immediately following the January payroll report. The S&P has declined 6 of the last 8 years on the day the Nonfarm Payroll report was released in January. Often, that weakness has continued, which is what we've been touching on with regard to questionable seasonality heading into the latter half of the month. There is optimism the Payroll report will beat expectations due to the big beat from the ADP report on Thursday. When the Payroll report beat expectations in January, then over the next two days it rose only 1 out of 5 times, averaging a return of -1.1%. When it missed expectations, … [Read more...]

Will the Gap Close?

All of the major indices gapped up on the first day of the trading year and now we are seeing a push into overbought territory coupled with decent overhead resistance. As an options trader this is the types of set-up that I look for and trade without hesitation. Once I make the assumption that the gap will close and the overbought state will move back into neutral territory I then use the appropriate options strategy to take advantage. I am an options trader. I trade strategies based off probabilities. Nothing new here. I just want to teach people how to trade effectively and profit by using my options high-probability options strategies.  For successful investors/traders, its about your strategy, your logic, your process and nothing … [Read more...]

The 2011 Options Strategies Review

I just wanted to thank all of you for a wonderful 2011. My theory on how to effectively trade options is finally catching on and the response has been overwhelming. I continue to be amazed by all of the positive feedback. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Daily Thoughts Patience, patience, patience. I have been patiently waiting for one of the ETFs I follow to hit a short-term extreme and after today's huge rally we are finally beginning to see some short-term extremes enter the market. As a result, I will most likely be placing a trade in the Theta Driver strategy over the next few days and if we see a continuation of this beginning of the year rally we could also see a trade in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion … [Read more...]