August 17, 2017

Archives for December 2011

Market Sets Record

What a day! According to Jason Goepfert, Tuesday was "the best day in 30 years." "The buying stampede resulted in just under 98% of all volume being transacted in stocks that were positive on the day." The highest ever. Historically, after large Up Volume days the market consolidates and I would expect that this time would be no different. All of the ETFs I follow have pushed back into neutral territory and several of the major market benchmarks are very close to a overbought state. With that being said, I intend to add a credit spread in the Theta Driver strategy tomorrow and depending on the price action tomorrow I might just add a position in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy. Subscribers stay … [Read more...]

Oversold States in the Major Benchmarks

Random Thoughts I have taken another much needed hiatus to concentrate on a few additions to the website. The members page is still int he works although progressing much slower than I originally anticipated. It will be worth the wait. Until then, we still have two of the most successful options strategies on the internet. The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy is up over 58% since its inception and the Theta Driver Strategy just reaped two more winners. The portfolio has had an average winner of over 13% per trade. As the year pushes to an end I will begin to start ramping up my posts and my intention is to ramp up my posts on a daily basis in 2012. Oversold Again The Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) among many … [Read more...]

Major Indices Remain in a Short-term Overbought State

Random Thoughts Three of the top five most short-term overbought ETFs that I follow are major market ETFs. DIA, SPY and IWM (in that order) are currently "very overbought" on a short-term basis. The RSI (2) of SPY and DIA are roughly 96 and above and IWM is not far behind at 92. As I write this the futures are higher and if we open at these levels we will see another test of the recent overhead resistance that has plagued the bulls since last Wednesday's historical surge. As I stated yesterday with DIA and SPY in short-term extreme overbought states coming off huge gaps to the upside and battling with strong overhead resistance the probability for a short-term reprieve is high. However, as we all know, stranger things have … [Read more...]

Bullish – Bearish – Bullish – Bearish

On the Tuesday before Thanksgiving I turned into a short-term bull. The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator had pushed into a short-term oversold state with readings not seen in months and as a result, I bought a few, two-month out calls. I recently sold my calls after the huge advance last Wednesday in the HPMR strategy and now I find myself back in the bearish camp. Over the past several days the market has struggled with what seems to be an area of strong overhead resistance. The struggle follows the huge gap from last Wednesday. Couple the aforementioned with the short-term overbought extremes in the market and I expect to see another short-term pullback over the next few trading sessions. It is my hope that the market allows … [Read more...]