April 24, 2017

Archives for November 2011

ETFs Back in a Short-term Neutral State

All of the ETFs I follow are back in a short-term neutral state. The two day rally has pushed all of the ETFs I follow back into a neutral state from the extreme oversold readings reached late last week. So, in terms of an edge, there really isn't one based on the high-probability, mean-reversion indicator I follow for my two options strategies. However, the market is currently entering one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year and a Santa Claus rally look imminent. As a result, I am short-term bullish on the market. I will be back later with more details, but I wanted to get out my indicators sooner than later. As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments that you might … [Read more...]

Is This the Beginning?

A Few Random Thoughts I can't remember how many times I have seen 300 point opens in the Dow futures. The rally today was strong. The talking heads will attribute the advance to Europe or a piece of economic data, but in reality the pop came on the heels of one of  the lowest short-term oversold readings in years. As a result, the probability of a short-term advance was extremely high. Last week the market lost over 4% in just over 3 1/2 days on extremely low volume. The entire move displayed very little conviction. Bullish? Yes, I think this move could extend itself for several weeks as Santa Claus and his typical holiday rally looks imminent. Add the fact, that seasonally we are entering one of the strongest periods of the … [Read more...]

The Market Moves Further Into and Oversold State

The market has pushed into one of the most short-term oversold states that I have seen in quite some time. Almost every ETF I follow is now in a "very oversold" state with RSI (2) readings below 5 and over half below 1 - a rarity indeed. So, now is the time that I want to be aggressive on the long side, but only for a few trading days. Conditions like the aforementioned almost always work themselves back to mean-reversion and I want to be a participant when the short-term occurs. I already have several trades on in both of my options strategies and plan on adding several more over the next few trading days, that is unless we see an enormous bounce before the opening bell Friday, which I think is highly doubtful. It is during times … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Short-Term Extremes Reside

I will be back later with a more thorough account of the day and my thoughts as we head towards the holiday. For now check out the short-term extremes in the market. A bounce looks imminent. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

The Market Presents Another Short-term Opportunity

I am going to keep it very short tonight. I think my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion chart says it all - a short-term bounce (1-3 days) is imminent. Yes, the market has pushed into a short-term oversold state and as a result, I have been trading like mad in both of my options strategies. As a contrarian, it is times like these that I feel most comfortable taking a position. When the ETFs I follow have RSI (2) readings below 2 and followed by a gap lower in the market I am perfectly comfortable adding exposure through directional plays like calls and of course, selling bull put spreads. The market doesn't offer this type of set-up often, so I have to take advantage of the short-term condition while it lasts. Oftentimes, traders … [Read more...]

The Sell-Off Continues – Several ETFs in a Short-Term Oversold State

 The market continued to sell off today and as a result we have several short-term oversold readings in the high-probability, mean-reversion options indicator. So, with options expiration tomorrow and several oversold ETFs I WILL be making a few trades in one or both of my options strategies. So subscribers stay tuned. For the rest of you here are the short-term overbought/oversold readings. As always feel free to email me if you have any questions or comments. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of … [Read more...]

The Perfect Environment for Selling Options Premium

Let the selling continue - the selling of options premium. Implied volatility remains high as the market remains anxious about the next piece of news. You can thank the Eurozone for the heightened VIX. At 30, the investor's fear gauge affords sellers of options premium the opportunity to create spreads with incredibly high (by historical standards) premium. Premium affords investors/traders the ability to increase the risk/reward of their respective trade in various ways and I am a high-probability trader in every sense of the term. So as one could expect, this environment lends well to my Theta Driver strategy . I sell premium, mostly through out-of-the-money vertical bear calls and vertical bull puts, but more importantly the trades … [Read more...]

High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Indicator

Nothing has changed since last Friday. My hope is that we see a short-term extreme very soon in one of the ETFs we follow in our options strategies. I will be back tomorrow with a few more posts. Stay tuned! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Options Strategy : Free 30-day trial Theta Driver Options Strategy (limited room available): Free 30-day trial Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE. … [Read more...]

Options Expiration is Upon Us

As we enter the week of options expiration the bulls and bears are playing a fierce game of tug of war. Europe, more specifically the Euro (FXE), continues to be the leading factor of the huge daily swings and until it is resolved I expect  we will see similar price action going forward. While, four of the five last trading sessions were positive we had an absolutely ugly day on Wednesday and one that could be a precursor of things to come as we move into 2012. The move came as the Italian bond rate pushed above 7%, which many see as a threshold for inevitable Italian default. However, many economists and banks have come out with thresholds far lower than 7%. The loss on Wednesday was the worst one-day percentage drop for the … [Read more...]

Do You Want to Make Money?

Change the way you invest! Hundreds of thousands of money managers don't understand how to manage money effectively. People blindly giving professional money managers that are not able to articulate the strategy they use to make the money they claim to make. It frustrates me beyond belief to hear professional money managers talk about a stock and their respective fundamentals and why you should should just blindly buy the stock based on their recommendation. No strategy talk whatsoever. Just blindly believe them and buy. Yet, they only have a 50/50 chance of success picking stocks and have no idea how to use options to increase their odds of success. I would never and I repeat NEVER even speak with a money manager if they were not … [Read more...]