June 25, 2017

Archives for April 2011

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Silver (SLV) Hits Another Short-Term Extreme

The last time Silver hit a short-term "very overbought" extreme, I called for a short-term reprieve in SLV and the High Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy made 19.8 % on the trade (you can check out the trade at my third-party monitoring service here). If the Silver ETF opens up tomorrow I will be making the same call so paid subscribers stay tuned for the potential for a real-time trade alert. As for the rest of the market, well, it seems as though everyone is anxiously waiting for Bernanke & friends to release some type of catalyst over the next two days. I expect to see the market move into the summer doldrums for various reasons immediately following (if not before) Bernanke's first press conference on Wednesday. Gold (GLD), … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – Silver Hits Short-Term Extreme

I am keeping it short tonight. My parents just arrived and my daughter and I are enjoying their company. Anyway, let's get to it. Last week I made 19.8% on my SLV puts and I hope to have the same good fortune if my signals are triggered tomorrow. SLV has once again hit a short-term extreme. All of my proprietary readings have hit a short-term extreme and the RSI (2) has confirmed as well. Now all I need to see is a higher open and I will most likely place a trade in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy. So, paid subscribers stay tuned. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info there as well. Just click … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – TBT Moves Into An Extreme State.

It has been a strange few weeks in the market. We had several trading days of strong resistance in the S&P 500 (SPY) and have basically sold off since the beginning of earnings season. Is it me, or does the market almost seems too predictable at the moment. Will the market truly be this simple to predict over the coming months? I am certainly not claiming to have the magic crystal ball, but at the moment the market just feels heavy and tired. With the old Wall Street adage about to grace us with its seasonal presence, I feel like we have seen the highs for a while. I expect to see a decent decline during the summer doldrums, which I think will offer a very good buying opportunity over the long-term. We could see a few gaps … [Read more...]

Strategy Continues to Outperform the Market – Up 34.6%

I took a hiatus from my daily post yesterday so that I could evaluate the latest trades in my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy. I closed out my Silver (SLV), Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&p 500 (SPY) positions during the last two trading sessions for an nice overall return. Both the SLV (+19.8%) and IWM (+21.3%) trade were profitable. However, the SPY trade did not experience the same good fortune. The strategy experienced its first loss since it was initiated back in November as SPY lost 20.2%. The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy is now up 34.6% since it was initiated six months ago with a win ratio of 92.3%. So far the strategy is up 14.2% for the month April. Check out the results yourself. The performance … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy – Silver, Russell Trades Successful and A Brief Discussion on Position-Sizing (SLV, IWM)

The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy reaped further success today. Towards the close of the trading session I was able to close out IWM from last week and an SLV trade that I placed this morning - both for a nice profit. The IWM trade made 21.2% and the SLV made 19.8%. So far the strategy is up 8.9% for the month of April. Check out the results here. I still have my other trade on from several weeks ago and I expect to close out the trade once the gap from 3/30 is closed. Yesterday I mentioned that if Silver (SLV) opened up todaythat I would send my subscribers a real-time trade alert. Indeed that set-up came to fruition after SLV pushed $0.30 to $0.40 higher at the open. Towards the end of the day SLV had pushed almost … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy – A New Addition (SLV)

Per the title of my post, I have decided to add the Silver ETF (SLV) to my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy. The ETF has wonderful volume/liquidity which makes the bid/ask spread extremely tight. It is certainly an appropriate addition to the strategy. Thanks Betty! With that being said, Silver (SLV) has pushed into an extreme "very overbought" state. Couple that with an RSI (2) of 99.9 and I think a short-term lies ahead. If indeed SLV opens higher Monday I will most likely place a trade in the strategy. Subscribers stay tuned for your real-time alerts and tweets. If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info there as well. … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy – SPY Continues to Trade in a Tight Range Bound Fashion

Another day in the range. The S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) continues to trade in a tight sideways, range bound fashion - seven days to be exact. Since the gap higher  on 3/30 , SPY has vacillated between $132.36 to $1340.00. Typically, when the broad market ETF trades in this tight of a range, we will see SPY spike out of the range in a violent way. I expect to see much of the same this time around. Basically, the tighter and longer the congestion, the larger the move. If the bears do take the reigns they will first have to overcome the $131.90 of the first gap. If SPY continues to move through that level I would expect to see SPY move back to close the second upside gap that was established back on 12/1 at $118.03. Remember … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy

After marching higher for most of the day, the major market indices came back near the closing bell to close the day basically flat. We have seen several days of range bound trading and I expect to see a violent move outside of the range when it inevitable occurs. Given the extreme short-term overbought state in most of the ETFs I flilow for my ETF/Options strategy I expect to see a short-term reprieve over the coming days. Because of the extreme overbought nature of the ETFs I still have both of my positions on. I will take them both off once we get back to neutral territory. Until then, I will sit back and patiently wait for the trade. This type of price action has happened before and it will happen again. However, if we look … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy

Up, up and away! Low inflation, low interest rates, accommodative Fed policy, strong earnings and healthy corporate balance sheets have helped to keep the market racing higher. Or maybe it is just the Fed pumping money into the economy through QE2? Either way, the market has been on a historical tear over the past two years. Absolutely, nothing can hold this market down. The nuclear incident in northeast Japan remains unresolved. Coalition jets are bombing North Africa, namely Libya. More protests in Yemen, Syria and even Jordan. A grim UK budget prognosis. More Eurozone debt bailouts on the way in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. New home sales plunged to a historical low. Again, it doesn't matter - the markket … [Read more...]

Short-Term, High-Probability Mean-Reversion – Several ETFs Hit Short-Term Extremes

Several of the ETFs I follow in the High-Probability, Mean Reversion strategy have hit a short-term "very overbought" extreme. Typically, when this type of event occurs a short-term reprieve (1-3 days) is right around the corner. Unemployment numbers are out before the bell tomorrow so I expect to see a pop at the open. If the market opens higher tomorrow I expect to make a trade in the strategy, so subscribers stay tuned. I currently have a trade on, so of course a move lower at the open would not upset me either. I expect tomorrow will be a very interesting day. Have a great night! If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info … [Read more...]