July 21, 2017

Archives for January 2011

Another Gain in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy

The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy reaped its first gain of 2001 today as it made 13.8% on the recent XLB trade. So far, since HPMR was established back in early November 2010, the strategy has advanced 16.8%. As I state on the site, patience is the key ingredient to the success of my strategy and forcing a trade is, in most cases, detrimental to any strategy. The strategy requires patience coupled with a disciplined approach. Waiting for the appropriate scenario to recommend trades with a high probability of success is what makes my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy successful. Here are the stats. Just look at that Sharpe ratio. http://high-probability-etf.collective2.com If you haven’t already, don’t forget to … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Overbought Readings Continue to Increase. Is Something About to Give? Mr. Probability Says, “YES”!

It was the best start to a year in over seven years, but I am not sure how long today's gain will last, at least over the short-term. According to my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion overbought/oversold indicator most of the ETFs I follow have pushed into a short-term "overbought" to "very overbought" state. As I have stated ad nauseum, when this many ETFs hit a short-term extreme the market typically takes a short-term reprieve (1-3 days). The XLB position that is currently held in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy moved in the red today although it was only a slight move. The position, in my opinion, still looks rather well-positioned given the short-term extreme overbought state of the market and XLB. Since I placed … [Read more...]