June 23, 2017

Archives for December 2010

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. GDX Looking Good!

As I stated yesterday, December is a bullish month for the market, but the bullish days are heavily weighted towards the beginning and end of the month. Since SPY began 15 years ago, the close of the 3rd day of December through the next two weeks have only been positive 5 times or roughly 33% with an average return of -0.6%. Moreover, the next three trading days are overwhelmingly bearish so given all of the aforementioned I can’t help but think that we are due for a short-term reprieve over the next few days. Well, I think after today's price action a short-term reprieve looks likely. Of course, as we all know there are no guarantees in trading. We still have overbought to very overbought readings in most of the ETFs I follow for … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Mr. Probability is Leaning Towards a Short-Term Reprieve.

IT was a light trading day and the third consecutive day of range-bound movement within the major market benchmarks. Most of the ETFs I follow within the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy have not been able to make much progress since the gap up last Wednesday (12/01). I made a trade last Friday (will be sending out details later to paid subscribers detailing the trade) and surprisingly the market was able to make some additional headway since the trade was placed. IF you look at the figures below you will notice that one thing is clear, the market is in a short-term overbought state. Almost all of the ETFs I follow for the strategy has moved into an "overbought" to "very overbought" state. This could be the perfect … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Overbought and Ready.

I apologize for the late post tonight. I have been frantically working on a few side projects that should really bring increased value for the readers of this blog and more importantly for my loyal paying subscribers. The New Year promises to bring quite a few changes to CrowderOptions.com. Anyway...... today the bulls continued their recent push and now just as the market is ready to absorb another jobs report, the majority of the ETFs I follow using my short-term indicators have moved into an overbought state. Yes, finally after three weeks of patiently waiting on the sidelines while the market muddled around in a fairly tight range the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy could have a signal forthcoming. In most cases, I … [Read more...]

Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Potential Trade Around the Corner?

What a difference a day makes! Historically, the first few days of December are bullish and today certainly lived up to its historical billing. Of course, a slew of positive economic news didn't hurt. The ADP jobs number, Q3 productivity, November auto sales and the Fed Beige Book were all favorable and as a result the major market benchmarks tacked on 2%. There is no doubt that on a fundamental basis, at least for the short-term, it was a good day. However, on a short-term technical basis there are a few bearish signals that could be lining up. First, we have the large gap up today in almost every ETF I follow. Typically gaps after major economic reports, particularly when they push the major market ETFs into near overbought or … [Read more...]