August 19, 2017

Archives for October 2010

More Bearish Short-Term Indicators

As expected, given the recent blast rally, more and more bearish indicators have entered the market. Seasonal weakness has once again entered the market. Historically, the market underperforms when during earnings season when the major benchmarks are near recent highs. Moreover, weakness usually occurs when the VIX hits a low in early October. Also, as I stated in an earlier post weakness often follows a payroll report that leads to a multi-month high. Lastly, October typically witnesses weakness during options expiration week. Once again, we shall see if the bearish indicators come to fruition. I am waiting for the 2:00 report out of the Fed today. The report should give the market some direction on the day. So far, nothing … [Read more...]


Subscribers - check your emails for the latest TZA trade (two alerts, the latter being most important). As I stated in the post earlier this morning, I will be back with some interesting notes on the current state of SPY and the market in general. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

Potential Trade – DBA

I still have 3 positions in SPY that I have accumulated over the past six week. Signals have been few and far between during this time, but as all of my loyal readers know this is just a part of any trading plan. There will be stagnant periods as well as periods of significant trading. Unfortunately, for the active traders, my strategies have fallen into the latter as of late. Of course, this doesn't bother me at all. It is the long-term that matters. I can't allow a period of six weeks define my trading. I honestly have to laugh at the emails that I receive regarding my lack of trading recently. Obviously there is an inherent lack of understanding regarding trading my strategy and most importantly, trading in general. Anyway, I am … [Read more...]

A Must Read

I hope everyone finds the following article enlightening. It involves one of the crucial aspects of trading - patience. Enjoy. Understanding Your Patience Threshold Please do not hesitate to email me with any further questions or feedback. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

Max Pain Near?

Yes, max pain is near. I will begin to take off a few of my short positions if we surge higher in to the $116's. I expect to see a short-term reprieve, but I will have to wait and see how the pullback, if indeed one occurs, acts around what should be decent support at $ 115.00 and $113.20. If we get the same type of price action as before I will look to take off my November puts. The next few days are certainly pivotal for my SPY puts. If I do take a loss it will be the first sizable one for My Options Portfolio. Losses are expected, it just a part of trading. It is how you fare long-term that matters and staying to play another day is the key to any long-term investment strategy, particularly a highly volatile options strategy. It … [Read more...]

A Couple of Links

Here are a few links that might be of interest: SPY : How can Mr Market fool us ? Is Silver Sustainable? Interested in Amazon at 160? Looking Like Bear Prints. Have a great night. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

S&P (SPY) Heading South? How Far?

As I write this the S&P 500 (SPY) is down $1.28 or 1.1%.  Since 9/20 the S&P has been testing the $115.0 level and has failed to push through and sustain the area strong overhead resistance. Moreover, the S&P has broken the low of the tight trading range that the major market benchmark trading in last week. Is the gap from 9/13 near? A move down to the $111.02 would close the gap and I would close the majority of  My Options Portfolio's month-long SPY puts off the table. Click chart to make larger. According to Jason Goepfert of the, the so-called "smart money", has recently established the largest net position on record by an enormous amount. In the past, the market has waned when these traders have … [Read more...]

Yes, it is finally over!

Just a quick post: The month is finally over. The improbable 9% gain in the S&P was, well, the best on over 70 years. Oh yeah, historically, September is the wort month for the market.  History certainly did not repeat itself in 2010. I have had a short position (puts) in the S&P (SPY) for several weeks now and I have added them at various times throughout the month at various strike prices. Currently I hold puts at the 112, 113 and 114 strikes. So, of course, As you can probably deduct, I am still anticipating a short-term decline that should take us down to the $111.02 area on the SPY and close the first of several gaps that exist beneath the major market benchmark. However, I must say that my stance is being tested as … [Read more...]