July 21, 2017

Archives for July 2010

My Options Portfolio Keeps Chugging Along

My Options Portfolio experienced its third straight month of gains and is currently up 50.1% since its inception back in early May 2010. Click here for all of the trades. I have also posted all of the trades for each month (I do this at the end of each month) from my ThinkorSwim account. I hope this helps all of you with transparency concerns. My loyal readers already know that transparency is king in my eyes. By the way, any trades that are currently open will go on next months account post. I currently have an SPY and IWM position open and I have posted both trades in recent posts. Furthermore, as always I will post these trades as soon as they are closed. For the month the My Options Portfolio advanced 17.5% or $6,155.50. Again it is … [Read more...]

Short, Shorter and Shortest – Are the Bears Near?

Here are the two trades that I placed yesterday. My Options portfolio  now about 50% short. The overbought state of the major indices has increased the probability of a short-term reprieve. There are also a few other factors that are playing into the bears favor over the very short-term. Only time will tell. Have a wonderful night and see you all bright and early for another exciting day. … [Read more...]

SPY Trade

Just a quick post  - I added to my current SPY put position by adding a few more contracts at the 111 strike. The major benchmarks have pushed into a short-term overbought state so I expect a reprieve in the next day or two. I will be back with the official trade this afternoon after the bell. Happy trading! Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

New Position in SPY

I decided to place the following trade today: My trade is based on a few factors that have come into play. While the major benchmark is not overbought it did hit a rare TICK reading yesterday (+1624), which in the the second reading in history. In the past, when a TICK hits 1500 or above the following trading day (today) is only positive 25% of the time. Moreover, the next two days are historically weak with the the days trading positive at the end of the day 28% and 34%, respectively. I will be back later this evening with more. I would love to hear what you have to say in the comments section of this post. Trading ideas/ thoughts, etc. Kindest, Andy … [Read more...]

SPY Trade Today – Options Portfolio at High – Up 50.1%

If you were following me in the comments section of the latest post (where I have been announcing my trades in real-time) you should be aware of the trade I posted earlier in the trading day. Friday's selling left the market in a short-term oversold state, so after another plunge at the open I decided to buy a few SPY calls to take advantage of the short-term situation. Not my typical trade (as I am more of a swing trader), but certainly not out of the ordinary if Mr. Probability is showing me an edge. As a result, I made 5.6% on the trade, or $205 after commissions, to bring My Options Portfolio up 0.4%, to 50.1%. You can check out the all of my trades here. As always I also post my trades directly from my TOS account (above) because … [Read more...]

Bears Take Charge – My Options Portfolio Up 49.4% YTD

What a day! After building a short position in SPY based on my short-term analysis the bears finally took charge today and pushed the market lower 2.75%. Over the past week or so I have been writing about how the probability of a short-term decline was imminent. It took patience and discipline to stick by my analysis while keeping my focus on the most important factor of any trade, risk management. Once again, patience pays. The trade tacked on another 5.4% or $2,095. As a result, My Options Portfolio is now up 49.4% since its inception on May 8, 2010. You can view all of my trades here and verify my all of my trades as I post all of my trades directly from my TOS account at or near the time of the trade (typically in the afternoon after … [Read more...]

Yes, Trading Can Be Frustrating At Times

Yes, today was, should I dare say, frustrating. My combined position of SPY puts moved into positive territory near the open only to rally hard at the close of the day. It is certainly easy to be look in hindsight and say, I should have taken off my positions when the $108.24 level on the S&P was hit (close of the gap from several days ago), but the major benchmark was still in an overbought extreme so I thought more selling was ahead. Of course, the selling could be right around the corner and I think it is over the short-term, but (for reasons I will state shortly) that still does not hide the fact that trading can often be an endeavor that requires much patience and conviction. As an options trader outside noise (media, etc.) creates … [Read more...]

The Week Ahead – Up, Down, Sideways? Hmmm.

Last week I spoke about the short-term oversold nature of the major indices and how a bounce was likely given the extreme oversold readings. In addition, the seasonal winds were blowing in the direction of the bulls as the Nasdaq’s 12-day mid-year rally began (in late June and ends on July 13th). According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac the average gain for the 12-day mid-year tech rally is 3.2% versus the 0.1% for July as a whole. Moreover, the Almanac states to watch for “huge market gyrations” after July 4th, “both up and down”. The Almanac goes on to mention that  ”in the mid-80’s the market began to evolve into a tech driven market and control in summer shifted to the outlook for the second quarter earnings of technology companies”. … [Read more...]

My Options Portfolio – Up 41.7% Since Inception in May

I was able to exit all of my open positions today and as a result, My Options Portfolio advanced 10.4%. My Options Portfolio is now up 41.7% since its inception in the beginning of May. A disciplined risk-management approach (position-size, stop-loss) has helped me to achieve my current percentage gains. Also, as you can see through my transparency (all of my trades have been posted directly from my ThinkorSwim account) my strategy of patience coupled with a sound risk-management has been quite effective. My hope is that all o you will join me on my journey and participate in the comments section of the website. Click Image to View Trades Check out out all of my trades since the inception. Moreover, you can view all of the trades … [Read more...]

June 29th Gap Fill Ahead?

Several of the major indices I follow (SPY, QQQQ, and DIA) have moved ever closer to closing the gap that was established on 6/29. IWM, well, it is a different story. The divergence from the other major benchmarks has been somewhat puzzling, but I still think the gap will eventually close before any significant decline occurs. In yesterday's post I mentioned several reasons why I think the market was headed higher over the short-term. The large gap in all of the major indices (plus almost all sector ETFs) from 6/29 has yet to close All of the major indexes have moved into a short-term oversold extreme (just look at the RSI (2) readings) Read the first link from my aforementioned links. Serge is right on in my opinion. Lastly, … [Read more...]