August 17, 2017

Archives for October 2008

Nice week for the ETF Extremes – Stay Tuned for Weekend Update

Overall it was a great week for our small newsletter service. After a roughly two months of sitting on the sidelines the ETF Extremes managed to have another profitable trade - 13.3% to be exact. It has been quite a ride for the ETF Extremes over the past 30 months with close to a 86% win ratio (18/21 winning trades). Yes, only 21 trades in 30 months, but the key is to look at the final result. The performance speaks for itself. The strategy is once again near the top of the list for options strategies at the third-party newsletter monitoring service pro-trading-profits. One thing is certain, the high-probability approach (trading extremes) has proven successful.  Sector ETF Extremes The strategy has not had a trade in several … [Read more...]

Potential Short-Term Overbought State Ahead???

Another rally today and another push closer to a short-term overbought extreme. While I do think the intermediate-term outlook is bullish (at least through the 4th quarter) I do think that we will witness a short-term pullback before we see another decent leg to the upside. I have stated this repeatedly over the past few weeks. We do have some positive seasonality ahead.  The first three days of November are overwhelmingly bullish which could help to push the market into a short-term overbought state which could lead to another signal in our ETF Extremes strategy and potentially in our Sector ETF Extremes strategy. I do not trade based on seasonal biases alone, but I do like to keep close tabs on the historical seasonal extremes in the … [Read more...]

Support and Resistance – ETF Extremes

Some Random Thoughts The highly anticipated Fed announcement left much to be desired. Everyone knew that at least a 50 basis point cut was the most likely scenario, but most traders were hoping for a deeper cut of 75 basis points. The reaction was volatile after the announcement, but settled down towards the final minutes of the trading day to close lower. On the heels of another successful ETF Extremes (read yesterday's post) trade is an expected neutral market which is indicated by all of the short-term overbought/oversold readings below. I am still focused on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). There is currently a lot of wiggle room between the next area of support (approx. $29.25) and resistance (approx. $34.28) and with the … [Read more...]

Overbought-Oversold Readings

Here are the overbought/oversold readings. I will be back later this evening with a post. Stay tuned! Overbought-Oversold levels for October 29, 2008 ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy * S&P 500 (SPY) - 55.3 (neutral) * Dow Jones (DIA) - 53.2 (neutral) * Russell 2000 (IWM) - 44.1 (neutral) * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 55.8 (neutral) Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy * Biotech (IBB) - 54.0 (neutral) * Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 55.7 (neutral) * Health Care (XLV) - 49.1 (neutral) * Financial (XLF) - 56.5 (neutral) * Energy (XLE) - 56.3 (neutral) * Industrial (XLI) - 51.3 (neutral) * Materials (XLB) - 53.4 (neutral) * Real Estate (IYR) - 42.4 (neutral) * Retail (RTH) - 60.9 (neutral) * Utilities (XLU) - 50.5 … [Read more...]

Another Successful Day for the Options Strategies – ETF Extremes Strategy Continues to Shine

It was a wonderful day for the ETF Extremes and New Ultra Extremes (Insiders Page only). The ETF Extremes strategy made 13.7% while the Ultra Extremes made 13.3% (options portfolio) and 4.0% (equity-only). I am ecstatic about the results today (other than one exception which I will discuss at the end). The ETF Extremes strategy continues to outperform the market by a substantial margin and due to the success over the past three years I am debating starting a fund that employs the basic tenets of the ETF Extremes guidelines and my proprietary indicators. As discussed in the options blog on the site I have been watching the strong support at $29.25 in QQQQ and was waiting to see a push into a short-term oversold state. The short-term … [Read more...]

Another Banner Day for the ETF Extremes Options Strategy

It was a good day for several of my options strategies. Both, the ETF Extremes options strategy and the New Ultra Extremes strategy (Insiders Page Only) had profitable days. The ETF Extremes continues its winning ways by patiently waiting for high-probability trading opportunities. More details to come. I am in the process of updating the performance page on the website as well as the Insiders page so I will not have another post to this page until later tonight. I will discuss the ETF Extremes trade in full, so stay tuned. One thing is certain, the ETF Extremes strategy continues to thrive (up 13.7% today), especially over the long-term. The track record can't be denied. Overbought-Oversold levels for October 28, 2008 ETF … [Read more...]

Subscribers – Check the Insider’s Page of the website for the first Ultra Extremes trade.

Yes, I have added another strategy to the mix, but this one will only be available to paid subscribers. I just wanted to clear up any confusion on the matter because I have had a few emails recently. Anway, subscribers, if you are interested in the trade please check the Insiders Page of the website for all the details. Click on the thumbnail. The trade is time-stamped with all the details. Let me know if you have any questions. Andy … [Read more...]

The Volatility Is Maddening

We are only 90 minutes into the trading day and already the S&P 500 (SPY) has moved from a high of $88.31 to now a new low at $84.53. Opportunities are made up easier than losses is my matra at this stage. For a mean reversion trader like myself, very short-term intraday trades have been tough. Volatility would have certainly stopped me out of several potential trades in the recent past.  So, for risk-management purposes I will continue to patiently wait on the sidelines until a high-probability trade set-up occurs. If a trade does indeed occur I will keep my stop-losses at the same levels. … [Read more...]

Trades Abound?

The market moved further into a short-term oversold state and in some areas an extreme short-term 'very oversold' state. We continue to see temporary bullish price action, but the efforts have not been sustained and eventually sell-off towards the latter part of the trading day. The major market benchmarks (DIA and SPY) once again held the October 10 lows. As I stated last week, a move into a short-term 'oversold' to 'very oversold' state while successfully testing the October 10 low could lead to a signal in a few of our options strategies. Simply put, this market is stretched! I am watching a few of the ETFs in the ETF Extremes and Sector ETF Extremes strategies. Moreover, we will most likely see a trade in our new Ultra Extremes … [Read more...]

It is all about managing risk.

As I predicted, QQQQ struggled with support around the $29.25 area. The underlying ETF did carve out new lows (down to $28.90) before it began to rally late in the day (check the recent post with my QQQQ Fib chart). The higher beta Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) struggled mightily all day while the market stalwarts, the Dow (DIA) and S&P 500 (SPY) were able to move into positive before the end of the trading day. I wanted to place a trade, but my price target was not met and as a result I did not send out a trade alert to subscribers. The recent volatility (5%-7% swings intraday) has certainly increased the risk of any trade particularly if they border on marginal and my strategies will not accept marginal trades which is … [Read more...]