August 22, 2017

Archives for September 2008

Opportunities Are Made Up Easier Than Losses

Wow! 1% to 3% moves in less than fifteen minutes. Headlines are driving the market and I am determined to stay on the sidelines to keep risk at bay. Risk management is the most important aspect of trading and I intend to remain patient for high probability signals. Time does not define signals. This is the mistake traders and strategists of other newsletter/advisory services make. I can’t tell you how many people have canceled my service because they thought my signals were not frequent enough. Other services tout monthly trades, but what good are monthly trades when they eventually fail because of a forced trade. Not trading is the tough part. Time never defines a professionals traders strategy why should it for newsletters? Because … [Read more...]

Remember, Cash is a Position – Less Exposure is Better

Some Quick Thoughts Yes, I have stated repeatedly since my service began back in early 2006, "cash is a position". What do I have to do to get people to understand the value of the strategies that I offer. All of them have outperformed the market and the ETF Extremes options strategy has outperformed the major benchmarks by a substantial margin. Trading often does not mean, trading success. There are so many options strategists out there that employ strategies that keep there subscribers in the market at all times. Iron condors, LEAP strategies, calendar strategies all have value, but over the long-haul they all experience enormous draw downs because of the constant exposure to the market. I am not claiming outstanding gains, although I … [Read more...]

Thanks Tim and What Will Options Expiration Bring?

First I would like to thank Tim Knight of The Slope of Hope for his kind words today. I enjoy Tim's blog immensely and find it to be a valuable resource for options traders of all levels. Anyway, the market moved sharply off the lows today even though the Fed decided to keep interest rates at 2.0%. I would have thought that the market would have sold off after the news, but at least for now buyers are in control. However, as we all know that could end tomorrow. Given the fact that the Dow futures are lower 100 points as I write this says that volatility is far from over during this week of options expiration. Although I do think tomorrow could trigger a few signals in our Extremes strategies. We have been patiently waiting on the … [Read more...]

Crowder’s Options Trading Strategies – ETF Extremes

Before I delve into the ETF Extremes strategy, I would like to discuss the current market environment. The sharp sell off today was fierce on the surface, but under the hood panic has yet to officially hit the market. All of the major benchmarks I follow for the ETF Extremes options strategy have moved into a short-term oversold state, yet only two sectors I follow for the Sector ETF Extremes have pushed into a short-term oversold state. Even with the oversold state of the major benchmarks I am still not completely sold on a short-term bounce. Yes, the fed comes out tomorrow and will mostly lower lower interest rates, but even then will that really solve any of the issues that currently reside in the market? I am not here to guess how … [Read more...]

How Our Stock Options Strategies Have Fared During During This Bear Market (plus today’s intraday posts)

What a day! I have to say I called it almost perfectly today. Of course, because no one seems to want to participate in my online discussion here I am left to make intra-day comments over at Tim Knight's option trading site, The Slope of Hope. I am including the following comments stated in Tim's blog today to give you an example of the type of commentary that I am willing to give throughout the trading day, but I need participation from the community here to make it worth the effort. I really think we can (and I certainly can) provide a valuable community-based forum for traders, more specifically options traders. Ideas and how to trade them are hard to come by and I think with a few keen minds out there who are willing to participate we … [Read more...]

Overbought-Oversold Readings for September 12, 2008

As always, here are the end of the week overbought-oversold rankings for the ETFs in my options strategies. I will be back later this weekend with more info regarding next week. Overbought-Oversold levels for September 12, 2008 ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy * S&P 500 (SPY) - 52.9 (neutral) * Dow Jones (DIA) - 51.1 (neutral) * Russell 2000 (IWM) - 55.9 (neutral) * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 39.0 (neutral) Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy * Biotech (IBB) - 48.8 (neutral) * Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 57.6 (neutral) * Health Care (XLV) - 55.1 (neutral) * Financial (XLF) - 45.7 (neutral) * Energy (XLE) - 54.2 (neutral) * Industrial (XLI) - 49.3 (neutral) * Materials (XLB) - 60.8 (neutral) * Real Estate (IYR) … [Read more...]

ETFs are back in a neutral state. Where now?

All of the major sectors and benchmarks that I follow for my options strategies have moved back in a neutral state which means there really isn't a short-term edge at the moment. As a result, I will sit back and wait for another signal to come down the pipeline. My guess is, or should I say I hope that this rally will last for a few days. I would like to see the sectors and benchmarks push back towards a short-term overbought state. I have stated over the past few days, if this type of price action comes to fruition we could see another trade in the ETF Extremes Options Trading Strategy and the Sector ETF Options Trading Strategy. I should also point out that the QQQQ closed near the highs of the day so some good economic news tomorrow … [Read more...]

Only Two ETFs Remain

Just a short note tonight. Only two ETFs remain in a oversold state, QQQQ and Consumer Discretionary (XLB). There is a possibility that I could enter into a trade in both the Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy and the ETF Extremes Options Strategy over the next day or so, but I am more inclined to wait until the ETFs I follow below hit a short-term overbought state to enter a trade. Of course, my proprietary indicators will give me more clues, but this is my hunch for now. I guess time will tell. I will be watching the 1260-1265 area of the S&P to move back in,  but again, I will have to see where my short-term proprietary indicators are at the time we hit the aforementioned area. By the way the response to the ETF Extremes … [Read more...]

ETF Extremes Gains 147% while S&P gains 1.1% Over Last 2 1/2 Years. More Trades Ahead? Sectors Hitting Extremes.

Half of the sectors have now moved into a 'oversold' to 'very oversold' state. Moreover, the high-beta benchmarks, QQQQ and IWM, have also moved in similar oversold states. What does mean going forward? Well, in most cases, the short-term probability leans towards the bullish side when we see readings like this in various sectors and major benchmarks, especially when they reach an extreme 'very oversold' reading. My take is no different this time around. Yes, capitulation could occur and we could witness a flush of the market, but I am certainly not going to sit idle when the short-term readings are in such an extreme 'very oversold' state. As long as there is a definitive stop-loss there should never be fear of a losing trade. As I … [Read more...]

Overbought-Oversold Readings – More Potential Trades

Subscribers - Read the prior post for info on the Gap Fade trade. It was a hectic day for traders. Up, down, up, down - the market was all over the place. After all the dust settled an the final trades were placed the consensus shows a mixed market. Just look at the overbought-oversold levels in the sectors. I am focused on the NASDAQ 100 for the next few days as we have a short-term 'very oversold' reading in the indicators. I expect to see at least a test of the high established today over the next few days, so we could see yet another trade in the coming days - this time in the ETF Extremes Options Strategy. Furthermore, we have a few extremes in the sectors I follow which could also trigger a few signals over the coming days. … [Read more...]