August 17, 2017

Archives for August 2008

Crowder Options – Weekly Market Preview

First I would like to inform subscribers that the August Stock Options Expiration Report will be available Monday afternoon (not today, as reported earlier) and from this point forward it will always be available the Monday following options expiration. Go to the Insider's page to access the report. Now on to the Weekly Market Preview The higher-beta indexes (QQQQ and IWM) pushed into a short-term overbought state during the latter part of last week. Typically this means that a short-term reprieve is right around the corner. This also means that a potential signal could occur for one or more of my stock options trading strategies, especially the ETF Extremes options strategy. To compound the already overbought state of the NASDAQ 100 … [Read more...]

Overbought/Oversold Readings

As always I will have commentary available this upcoming Sunday in the Weekly Review/Preview. Also, subscribers look for the August Expiration report this Sunday on the Insider's page of the website. Until then have a wonderful weekend! Andy Overbought/Oversold levels for August 15, 2008 ETF Extremes Options Strategy * S&P 500 (SPY) - 62.6 (neutral) * Dow Jones (DIA) - 56.3 (neutral) * Russell 2000 (IWM) - 72.1 (overbought) * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 76.6 (overbought) Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy * Biotech (IBB) - 64.9 (neutral) * Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 69.3 (neutral) * Health Care (XLV) - 80.0 (very overbought) * Financial (XLF) - 49.2 (neutral) * Energy (XLE) - 37.6 (neutral) * Industrial (XLI) … [Read more...]

QQQQ near a short-term extreme

Sorry for the late post tonight. My wife, child and I headed out for a late hike at Lake Willoughby afternoon so again I apologize for the tardiness of the post. It was a gorgeous day in VT so we had to get outside. Anyway.... The QQQ's continue to struggle with overhead resistance at current levels and have me wondering if we are going to witness the typical post-expiration collapse that often plague the market the trading day following options expiration. Certainly another advance or flat day tomorrow would play into the seasonal tendency so we will soon enough. One note of interest is that volume has been declining as the week has progressed which is just another sign that we are in the midst of a bear flag with another … [Read more...]

Bearish Attempts Thwarted Once Again

Bearish attempts (at least in small-cap and tech-heavy indexes) were once again thwarted at the end of the day today. The seems to be a tug-of-war at the current levels in the Russell (IWM) and NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ). It was the second straight day that the prior highs were not taken out which is a positive for the bears. However, the price action has been frustrating and difficult to trade for both, the bulls and bears. I continue (due to the overbought nature of the higher-beta sectors) to have a short-term lean towards the bearish camp and if the $46.90 area is taken out (and holds below this level) I expect to see a wave selling. It still looks like a bear flag set-up at this juncture and until that is broken I wil stay with the … [Read more...]

QQQQ still in a short-term overbought state

Not too much to report tonight so I will keep it rather short. Other than the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ), the other major benchmarks managed to move decisively lower today and are back in a neutral state. The QQQs still have my attention as they have pushed into short-term overbought state and are nearing an extreme. Moreover, they started to show some weakness around the recent highs from yesterday which could indicate a near-term decline over the next few days. My shortest-term overbought/oversold proprietary indicator still has a bit of room before it is triggered, but it is very close to a signal which could come as soon as tomorrow. Overbought/Oversold levels for August 12, 2008 ETF Extremes Options Strategy * S&P 500 (SPY) - 53.9 … [Read more...]

Will the week of options expiration be witness to another short-term extreme?

I am still overwhelmed with emails from last week regarding the ETF Extremes strategy (among the various other strategies I follow). The long-term success in the ETF Extremes options strategy is finally being realized after a 2 1/2 year track record and the recent response shows. I will try and get to all of the emails in an orderly and timely fashion. I just want to remind everyone that I do put a cap on subscribers at 100 per strategy (keeps the emails down, liquidity reasons, etc) so if you wish to join please keep this in mind as each day the strategies get closer to the max. If you wish to see the post from last week about the long-term performance (including commissions and the monthly subscription fee) please click here. Okay, … [Read more...]

Weekly Market Review/Preview

As expected, the Fed decided to keep interest rates at 2.0% on Tuesday. The announcement was accompanied by a message on inflation and the economy that eased concerns about a potential rate hike in the near future. The S&P rallied 2.9% on the news and created quite a few subplots for the rest of the week The news led to a 21 month high in the dollar which also helped push oil prices to a three month low. All in all, it was a wonderful week for the bulls. For the week the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 advanced 3.6%, 2.9%, 4.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The FOMC’s statement Tuesday warned of higher inflation and continued weakness in the economy yet the stock market loved the message. Why? Traders were relieved by the growing … [Read more...]

Overbought-Oversold Readings – Important Link

As always on Friday the post only includes the overbought/oversold readings. I will be back on Sunday with the 'Weekly Market Review/Preview'. However, if you haven't had a chance to read the post from Thursday you should. It is a very important post to understand the strategies I use (especially the ETF Extremes) and how the have performed with commissions and monthly subscription fees taken into account. Have a great (and hopefully sunny) weekend! Andy Overbought/Oversold levels for August 8, 2008 ETF Extremes Options Strategy * S&P 500 (SPY) - 63.4 (neutral) * Dow Jones (DIA) - 64.3 (neutral) * Russell … [Read more...]

Another Successful ETF Extremes Trade – Sample Allocation (Important Please Read)

This post will cover quite a few topics including the most recent ETF Extremes trade and a sample allocation of the ETF Extremes strategy and how a $5000 account would have performed since the strategy was initiated over two years ago. According to the abundance of emails, many of you were able to take advantage of the post-fed reversal that I have mentioned over the past few days. You have no idea how happy this makes me. Enjoy the profits! All I ask is that you keep reading and supporting the service. Thank you again for all of your kind words. Anyway, I mentioned that a signal was triggered in the ETF Extremes options strategy yesterday. The trade was a result of the various short-term bearish indicators that had pushed into the … [Read more...]

Post Fed Reversal Part II

Sorry for the late post, I ended up losing all of my post which as we all know is a very discouraging experience. Anyway..... Yesterday, I mentioned the historical tendency for a post-fed reversal. I stated the following: "I went over a few stats today and found that when the market, more specifically the S&P 500 (SPY), is higher before and after the FOMC release the often performs poorly over the short-term. Since 1998 the market has only witnessed this type of scenario seven times and the following day only two occurrences pushed higher and only by a paltry amount. A week later all seven instances were lower by an average of approximately 1%. I have mentioned several times about the tendency for a post-Fed fade and, at least … [Read more...]