July 21, 2017

Archives for July 2008

Could We See A Sector ETF Extremes Signal Tomorrow?

Just some short snippets today, but first I would like to point out that the strategies are filling up and quickly. I limit my subscribers to 75 per strategy to keep things manageable on all levels. If you have any questions about the service or the strategies please do not hesitate to email me at andy(at)crowderinvestments.com. Will the bears reign supreme in early August? Possibly. Recent market history shows that over the last ten years the first few weeks of August have only finished positive 3 times. After the plunge in the market today all of the major benchmark ETFs that I follow are back in a neutral state. However, with the release of the employment report tomorrow that could quickly change. Biotech (IBB) and now Health … [Read more...]

Will We See Short-Term Reprieve In Early August?

I mentioned yesterday about the market's bullish tendency for the end/beginning of the month . I should point out that I typically, actually I should say, almost never trade based on seasonal tendencies. However, I do like to use seasonal biases as a tool to push the probability of a potential position on my side. That being said, according to my overbought/oversold screen below, the major benchmarks have pushed close to a short-term overbought state. While I do not use the numbers bloew to place a trade I do use htem as the initial screen for potential trades. Okay, now back to the current market. Tomorrow brings the highly anticipated GDP which many expect will be a market moving report. Friday is also a big day for market moving … [Read more...]

The Talking Heads Are At It Again!

The seasonal end/beginning of the month bullish tendencies coupled with some short-term oversold levels helped to push the market higher today. The news out surely could not perceived as good or could it. I think any sane person can see that the economy still has some struggles to work through. I typically never watch or listen to the talking heads, but today's advance caught my curiosity so I decided to use the CNBC tab on the Thinkorswim software. What did I hear? Well, what a surprise the sentiment was slanted to the bullish camp. The bottom is in, buy now. Really? One day of trading and this is what the bright minds of the financial media conclude? Of course they (and many of the analysts they interviews) could be right in their … [Read more...]

Could we see another gap lower tomorrow? What would it mean for the options trading strategies?

Another decline and more oversold readings. We also (depending on the reaction tomorrow morning to the economic reports) could have a signal in the QQQQ Gap Fade strategy. A sharp gap lower tomorrow would certainly put the tech-heavy index back in a short-term oversold state and if you couple this with the aforementioned gap there could be a nice set-up in the making. Subscribers, as always, I will send out a trade-alert, if and when a trade occurs. So far since the strategy is up 24.2% with a win ratio of 75% (6 out of 8 trades) since it was initiated in early Feb '08. There are a few sectors back on my radar after today's plunge. Materials (XLB) and Utilities (XLU) are the two that I am watching closely especially if we see the overall … [Read more...]

Weekly Review/Preview

stated last week that we would most likely see a short-term reprieve in the major market stalwarts and that is indeed what occurred. During the prior week the market was able to reap exceptional gains, but unfortunately the Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) were not able to build upon last week’s advance. For the week the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 finished the week mixed at -1.1%, -0.2%, 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Fundamentally, the market should have moved higher as oil prices continued the trend lower as the market scalped another 4.7% off the price to finish the week at $123.77 a barrel. Also, the financial sector received more positive news, this time from Bank of America which stated that it would not have to cut its … [Read more...]

Overbought/Oversold Reading for July 25th – Crowder’s Options Strategies

As I reported last week, every Friday my blog will only contain the overbought-oversold readings for the ETFs I follow for my strategies. My commentary or market review/preview will be available each Sunday. Have a great weekend! Andy Overbought/Oversold levels for July 25, 2008 ETF Extremes Options Strategy * S&P 500 (SPY) - 45.5 (neutral) * Dow Jones (DIA) - 42.5 (neutral) * Russell 2000 (IWM) - 61.0 (neutral) * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - 55.9 (neutral) Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy * Biotech (IBB) - 85.3 (very overbought) * Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 49.1 (neutral) * Health Care (XLV) - 68.8 (neutral) * Financial (XLF) - 51.1 (neutral) * Energy (XLE) - 27.4 (oversold) * Industrial (XLI) - 55.8 … [Read more...]

Winning Sometimes Hurts

Patience pays off again. Are you starting to get the idea of how I trade? The Sector ETF Extremes options strategy has its first trade. Late in yesterday's trading session a signal was finally triggered in the Sector ETF Extremes. It was the first signal since the strategy was initiated on June 16th. XLF had moved into a "very overbought" state and my shortest-term proprietary model was reading an extreme state so I sent out a trade alert to the subcribers' of the Sector ETF Extremes options strategy. The position was XLF Dec08 23 puts (XLFXW) for $2.55. Early in the trading session the market turned decisively lower so I decided to take a 9.8% profit off the table. Check out the performance page. Certainly not a bad day by any … [Read more...]

Sector ETF Extremes – Strategy’s First Trade Today

We had our first trade in the Sector ETF Extremes trade today. The trade is still open so I will not report anything until the position is closed (hopefully for a profit) as it would not be fair to those who pay to subscribe to my service and receive real-time alerts among many other things. IWM looks even more delightful at these levels. As we can all plainly see by today's action, even short-term overbought levels do not necessarily mean further upside is out of the question. I have remained on the sideline because my short-term overbought/oversold readings (proprietary) have told me to sit patiently for a signal. Will we see one tomorrow? Possibly, but as you all know by now I never force a trade. Again, opportunities are made up … [Read more...]

Another Gap Fade Success! Options Strategy up 24.2% YTD. Enjoy the Profits!

Yes, another successful trade in the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) Gap Fade options strategy today. The market moved sharply lower at the open and as a result a signal was triggered in the Gap Fade strategy. About 90 minutes later I was out of the trade for a 6% gain on the day. Check out the details of the trade here. It was the 8th trade of the year. Yes, I have only been exposed to this market for all of 8 days in the Gap Fade strategy. Amazing, eh. Some of you are slowly catching on; trading every day or just using an options strategy that exposes you to the market on a daily basis will eventually catch-up to you. If you feel like you must have action every day then why not at least hedge your strategies with one of mine? As I always say the … [Read more...]

30 day Risk-Free Trial – Small-Caps Nearing Extreme

Not too much going on today. The Russell 2000 (IWM) and Biotech sector (IBB) have moved into an overbought state, but not yet near an extreme. My proprietary short-term overbought/oversold model shows IWM is getting very close and a decent open to the upside tomorrow could push it there. I will be waiting and as always I will send out an alert if and when a signal occurs. Okay, I have been doing this for over two years now and yes, I am finally offering a 30 day risk-free trial offer for the first time ever. I truly feel that I offer a service that is unlike any other and by capping my subscribers (75 per strategy) I am able to concentrate on what is important. If you would like to know more about the service browse around the site and … [Read more...]