April Expiration Report

April 20, 2008

The April Expiration report (subscribers only) is now available on the Insiders page of the website.

Have a wonderful rest of the weekend! See ya bright and early.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Options expiration ends with a bang

April 18, 2008

I am going to keep it fairly short tonight.

Today was the second substantial gap higher this week. The gap from Tuesday never closed and neither did today’s gap. Now the major benchmarks are in an overbought state with two large gaps below and post expiration weakness ahead. This is the set-up that I have been writing about for several days.

Given the current readings the chance of further short-term upside looks minimal.

The gap higher today led to a signal in the Gap Fade strategy. Given the readings I mentioned earlier today’s signal looked promising. After the opening bell QQQQ moved slightly lower then began to rally only to take a break during the latter part of the day. Unfortunately, the gap never filled and per the Gap Fade guidelines I closed the trade out at the end of hte day. The result was a $.10 loss or 5.0%.

Anyway, I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend and subscribers don’t forget to check the premarket report Monday for potential set-ups Monday, particularly in the ETF Extremes.

April 18, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) – 76.3 (overbought)
S&P (SPY) – 75.8 (overbought)
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 69.3 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) – 76.2 (overbought)
Emerging Markets (EEM) – 73.3 (overbought)

more overbought/oversold levels on additional sectors found in the Insider’s page (Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) – less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Mixed bag as we head into options expiration

April 17, 2008

It was a mixed bag today. The major indices opened lower and by the end of the day they had pushed higher mostly on the back of the Oil Services sector. So basically nothing has changed from yesterday.

Tomorrow brings options expiration and I have stated over the past few days my hope is that the major benchmarks will be able to hold the current levels or better yet push higher into an overbought state. Why? Combine short-term overbought levels with the short-term seasonal weakness that typically occurs the day after options expiration and a large unclosed gap directly below and the probability of a short-term fade increases dramatically.

After being fairly busy with trading in the strategies over the first few weeks of April things seem to have calmed down a bit. I would expect this to pick up over the next few weeks as earnings season begins to wind down. So far I have been a bit surprised by the lack of gaps that have occurred during this earnings season, but there are still a few weeks left so who knows.

Anyway, enjoy the day!

April 17, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) – 69.1 (neutral)
S&P (SPY) – 68.2 (neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 62.4 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) – 59.2 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) – 65.6 (overbought)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Trend Day and Overbought Extremes

April 16, 2008

I mentioned how I was hesitant to place a trade in the Gap Fade strategy this morning due to the recent oversold conditions and low neutral state. Typically the risk/reward would have been very good, but given the aforementioned oversold conditions it just wasn’t as good as I had hoped. However, I was still planning on placing a trade, but with a tighter stop than usual. Well, the Tick/Trin continued to display signs of a trend day and that is exactly what happened today. Fortunately, the decision to stay on the sidelines was a smart one as the gap higher today never came close to closing. What does that mean going forward over the short-term?

My hope is that we see this rally continue into the weekend and eventually move into an overbought state. Typically, after options expiration we see weakness, particularly the day after expiration so I will be watching to see if this set-up comes to fruition.

After today’s rally many of the market sectors I follow pushed into an overbought state so we could see a short-term reprieve before the week is over. I have not seen this many “overbought” to “very overbought” readings among the sectors in quite some time. Couple the overbought readings with the gap higher that went unclosed today and I think we are in a similar situation that we were in just a few weeks ago. The RSI Wilder (2) in many of the sectors and major indices have yet to move into an extreme state, but that could change with another push higher over the next few days.

As always I will have more (including potential trade set-ups) in tomorrow’s premarket report. Until then have a wonderful night!

Overbought/Oversold for April 16, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) – 68.7 (neutral)
S&P (SPY) – 67.1 (neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 66.9 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) – 61.6 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) – 73.9 (overbought)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Do we have a catalyst?

April 15, 2008

The market chopped around all day in an attempt to find some type of conviction from the bulls/bears. Unfortunately no one stepped up, but that looks like it will change as soon as the opening bell rings tomorrow. Why?

Intel reported earnings that seems to have pleased Wall Street in after hours trading. As a result, the underlying major indices that we follow could potentially open with a fairly large gap higher. Of course things could change overnight, but that seems unlikely. There are a few closely watched economic reports due at before the bell (CPI, Housing Starts) so who knows what tomorrow will bring. I will post any potential trades in the premarket report (@ 8:30 EST) on the Insiders page of the website. There could be reason to tread lightly on a trade if a signal actually occurs. Again, I will write about this tomorrow morning.

Quite a few sectors have moved into an overbought state, but none have yet to move into an extreme short-term overbought state.

Now that the major indices (QQQQ, SPY,) have a catalyst to jump start the price action maybe we will see the market move higher into the weekend. If this occurs and the major benchmarks move into an overbought state I would expect to see the seasonal weakness that typically occurs post options expiration. I will talk about this more if the aforementioned situation actually comes to fruition.

Have a great night!

Overbought/Oversold for April 15, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) – 32.7 (neutral)
S&P (SPY) – 30.8 (neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 40.1 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 35.3 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) – 56.7 (neutral)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Oversold Sectors Making an Appearance

April 14, 2008

Not a long post, but power packed.

The Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) pushed further into an oversold state. The S&P (SPY) has moved close to a short-term oversold extreme with an RSI Wilder (2) of of 3.1. A move towards 2 and I predict that we will see another signal in the ETF Extremes strategy. As always, a real-time trade alert will go out to all subscribers of the ETF Extremes if the trade indeed occurs over the next day or so.

As for the sectors, XLY, XLI and XLF have all moved into an oversold state. All three are on my watch list but XLF is the indice that I will be watching closely tomorrow. XLF has officially moved into a short-term oversold extreme with an RSI below 1. An flat or lower open tomorrow and I would expect to see a trade in the PaperTrade Extremes strategy. As always I will post the trade on the Insiders page of the website once the trade occurs.

My hope is that we see a nice large gap tomorrow. If so, it should be a very busy day for me as all three strategies could see a trade. Have a great night.

Overbought/Oversold for April 14, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) - 26.1 (oversold)
S&P (SPY) - 25.3 (oversold)
Russell 2000 (IWM) - 30.1 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 33.5 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) - 45.4 (neutral)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Great Week for the Extremes Strategies – Market Moves into Short-term Oversold

April 11, 2008

It was a very good week for the strategies that I employ here at Crowder Investment Research. The ETF Extremes had its forst trade in quite some time for an 18.2% gain. Not bad considering the market has been markedly lower since the last trade. Comparitively the strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 25%. The winning trade has brought the cumulative total for the strategy to over 130%. Admittedly, I lost quite a few people due to the lack of signals in the ETF Extremes strategy, but that is okay, I will continue to stick with my guidelines through thick and thin. With a stellar two year performance under its belt the strategy has certainly lived up to my expectations. Give it a try, there is plenty of room and you can’t beat the price of $40 a month. Most services charge far more for far less. Remember, this is a long-term stock options strategy. A marathon and not a sprint. You get the picture. Please do not hesitate to email me with any questions or comments that you might have.

As for the Sector Extremes strategy I had another two winning trades to make it 6 for 6. Believe me I realize that not every trade is going to be a winner, but by eliminating false signals and sticking with extremes (much like the ETF Extremes strategy) I expect to see continued long-term success.

The sharp decline has put several of the major benchmarks back into an oversold state. DIA and SPY have an RSI Wilder (2) of roughly 6 and 4, respectively. That is surprisingly low, so my guess is that a sustained move to the downside, over the short-term, will not hold. A short-term bounce looks imminent. SPY and QQQQ almost closed the gap from 4/1 and I expect to see both close early next week. I think a few days ago I spoke about the 4/1 gap and the other signals that were pointing towards a short-term reprieve. Hmmmm. Toot toot. Have a great weekend!

Overbought/Oversold for April 11, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) - 27.2 (oversold)
S&P (SPY) - 27.8 (oversold)
Russell 2000 (IWM) - 31.9 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 36.1 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) - 47.4 (neutral)

Sectors

Biotech (IBB) - 49.6 (neutral)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 32.8 (neutral)
Health Care (XLV) - 44.1 (neutral)
Financial(XLF) - 28.4 (neutral)
Energy (XLE) - 54.4 (neutral)
Industrial (XLI) - 21.5 (oversold)
Materials (XLB) - 49.1 (neutral)
Real Estate (IYR) – 34.8 (neutral)
Retail (RTH) - 38.7 (neutral)
Utilities (XLU) – 59.1 (overbought)

International

Brazil (EWZ) - 50.7 (overbought)
China (FXI) - 48.8 (neutral)

Others of Interest

Clean Energy (PBW) - 45.6 (neutral)
Water (PHO) - 34.6 (neutral)
Agriculture (DBA) - 52.7 (neutral)
Commodity Index (DBC) - 64.4 (neutral)
Oil Services (OIH) - 61.9 (very overbought)

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

XLE Trade and a Good Two Weeks

April 10, 2008

Short post tonight.

It was another good day for the PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy. I closed the XLE trade early this morning with the dip in the underlying. As a result, the trade made $.65 for a gain of 22% on the trade. Here is the entry and exit price. Both were placed on the Insiders page immediately following each trade. The strategy has a cumulative gain that exceeds 130%.

Energy is still extremely overbought in the short-term. The Oil Services sector (OIH) has an RSI (2) of 99.8.

For now I am sitting on my hands. Yes, cash is a position. The last few weeks have been rather crazy with trading so a day or two of sitting on the sidelines might be a nice break.

Overbought/Oversold for April 10, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) – 61.6 (neutral)
S&P (SPY) – 54.8 (neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 53.7 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) – 60.2 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) – 63.0 (neutral)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

Energy Sector Remains Short-term Overbought – XLE Trade

April 9, 2008

Yesterday I mentioned the likelihood of another trade in the PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy. Well, early this morning I placed the following trade and then immediately placed it on the Insiders page.

(Insiders Only)

As you can see by the execution time I was able to get in fairly close to the highs this morning. XLE continued to move higher throughout the morning and the RSI (2) pushed to 99.6 so I decided to place the trade. As it stands the trade has made roughly 10%, but as well know nothing is certain until trade is closed. Hopefully, the overbought conditions will finally push the sector lower over the next few days. One thing is for certain, XLE has not seen extreme levels like this in quite some time. Again, this trade has a short-term frame (I probably should have taken the gain) but with the XLE still in a extreme overbought state the most practical approach is to stick with the trade.

Overbought/Oversold for April 8, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) – 56.5 (neutral)
S&P (SPY) – 52.2 (neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 41.5 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) – 45.4 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) – 52.1 (neutral)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

ETF Extremes Trade and Sector Extremes

April 8, 2008

Yippee! It was another good day for strategies. While the market has moved lower in 2008, the strategies have performed extremely well.

I closed out the ETF Extremes strategy trade today for a nice 18.2% gain. It was the first trade in the strategy since way back in July. Yes, July. The market has lost over 6% since that time and the strategy has gained 18.2%. While I was frustrated at the lack of signals at time, I knew that the strategy worked and continued to stay disciplined with the strategy’s guidelines. Admittedly, I lost quite a few subscribers as a result of the lack of signals, but I think this proves my belief in the long-term viability of this strategy. Simple, effective and best of all profitable. Check out the ETF Extremes performance page for more details on the trade.

Since the first trade two years ago, the strategy has had a total of 16 trades (14 wins/2 losses) for a win ratio of 87.5%. The cumulative gains in the strategy have moved to an all-time high of 131.7%. Not too shabby in comparison to the performance of the major benchmarks during that same time frame. I have to admit I am proud of the ETF Extremes strategy.

Due to the success of the ETF Extremes strategy I recently created a PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy that I use specifically for subscribers who frequent the Insiders page (paid only) of the website. In doing this I hope to create a community on the Insiders page who have like-minded goals without the bother of a public forum that often gets side-tracked with spam, other topics, etc.

Anyway, the PaperTrade Sector Extremes had another successful trade today making that the fifth straight successful trade since I initiated the strategy back on 2/26 of this year. I know it is a bit early to call this short of a time frame a success, but I am certainly pleased with the results so far and hope the success in the ETF Extremes will be a foreshadowing of of the performance in the PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy.

As you can see by the execution time I made the following trade soon after the opening bell. As I stated yesterday the strategy takes advantage of short-term extremes in the market so I do not like to hold a position for long. Lock in the profits and move along to the next short-term setup.

(Insiders Only)

The trade ended up making 31.0%. Certainly a respectable gain in the options world. I typically like to take gains that are a bit smaller (roughly 15%) but the gap down at the open helped to extend the gains. The cumulative gains now exceed 120%.

Overall today was a great day for the strategies.

As for the sectors, XLE and OIH remain the most overbought with XLE reaching an astounding RSI Wilder (2) reading of 99.6. It doiesn’t get much more extreme on a sohrt-term basis than that. As a result, I wil lmost likely be placing another trade in the PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy. I will have more details tomorrow in the premarket report on the Insiders page.

Overbought/Oversold for April 8, 2008

Major Benchmarks

Dow (DIA) - 68.0 (neutral)
S&P (SPY) - 69.2 (neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) - 67.9 (neutral)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 59.5 (neutral)
Emerging Markets (EEM) - 70.3 (overbought)

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

Filed Under Crowder's Daily Market Commentary ·

« Previous Page — Next Page »