August 17, 2017

Archives for April 2008

April Expiration Report

The April Expiration report (subscribers only) is now available on the Insiders page of the website. Have a wonderful rest of the weekend! See ya bright and early. … [Read more...]

Options expiration ends with a bang

I am going to keep it fairly short tonight. Today was the second substantial gap higher this week. The gap from Tuesday never closed and neither did today’s gap. Now the major benchmarks are in an overbought state with two large gaps below and post expiration weakness ahead. This is the set-up that I have been writing about for several days. Given the current readings the chance of further short-term upside looks minimal. The gap higher today led to a signal in the Gap Fade strategy. Given the readings I mentioned earlier today’s signal looked promising. After the opening bell QQQQ moved slightly lower then began to rally only to take a break during the latter part of the day. Unfortunately, the gap never filled and per the Gap … [Read more...]

Mixed bag as we head into options expiration

It was a mixed bag today. The major indices opened lower and by the end of the day they had pushed higher mostly on the back of the Oil Services sector. So basically nothing has changed from yesterday. Tomorrow brings options expiration and I have stated over the past few days my hope is that the major benchmarks will be able to hold the current levels or better yet push higher into an overbought state. Why? Combine short-term overbought levels with the short-term seasonal weakness that typically occurs the day after options expiration and a large unclosed gap directly below and the probability of a short-term fade increases dramatically. After being fairly busy with trading in the strategies over the first few weeks of April things … [Read more...]

Trend Day and Overbought Extremes

I mentioned how I was hesitant to place a trade in the Gap Fade strategy this morning due to the recent oversold conditions and low neutral state. Typically the risk/reward would have been very good, but given the aforementioned oversold conditions it just wasn’t as good as I had hoped. However, I was still planning on placing a trade, but with a tighter stop than usual. Well, the Tick/Trin continued to display signs of a trend day and that is exactly what happened today. Fortunately, the decision to stay on the sidelines was a smart one as the gap higher today never came close to closing. What does that mean going forward over the short-term? My hope is that we see this rally continue into the weekend and eventually move into an … [Read more...]

Do we have a catalyst?

The market chopped around all day in an attempt to find some type of conviction from the bulls/bears. Unfortunately no one stepped up, but that looks like it will change as soon as the opening bell rings tomorrow. Why? Intel reported earnings that seems to have pleased Wall Street in after hours trading. As a result, the underlying major indices that we follow could potentially open with a fairly large gap higher. Of course things could change overnight, but that seems unlikely. There are a few closely watched economic reports due at before the bell (CPI, Housing Starts) so who knows what tomorrow will bring. I will post any potential trades in the premarket report (@ 8:30 EST) on the Insiders page of the website. There could be reason … [Read more...]

Oversold Sectors Making an Appearance

Not a long post, but power packed. The Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) pushed further into an oversold state. The S&P (SPY) has moved close to a short-term oversold extreme with an RSI Wilder (2) of of 3.1. A move towards 2 and I predict that we will see another signal in the ETF Extremes strategy. As always, a real-time trade alert will go out to all subscribers of the ETF Extremes if the trade indeed occurs over the next day or so. As for the sectors, XLY, XLI and XLF have all moved into an oversold state. All three are on my watch list but XLF is the indice that I will be watching closely tomorrow. XLF has officially moved into a short-term oversold extreme with an RSI below 1. An flat or lower open tomorrow and I would expect to … [Read more...]

Great Week for the Extremes Strategies – Market Moves into Short-term Oversold

It was a very good week for the strategies that I employ here at Crowder Investment Research. The ETF Extremes had its forst trade in quite some time for an 18.2% gain. Not bad considering the market has been markedly lower since the last trade. Comparitively the strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 25%. The winning trade has brought the cumulative total for the strategy to over 130%. Admittedly, I lost quite a few people due to the lack of signals in the ETF Extremes strategy, but that is okay, I will continue to stick with my guidelines through thick and thin. With a stellar two year performance under its belt the strategy has certainly lived up to my expectations. Give it a try, there is plenty of room and you can't beat the … [Read more...]

XLE Trade and a Good Two Weeks

Short post tonight. It was another good day for the PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy. I closed the XLE trade early this morning with the dip in the underlying. As a result, the trade made $.65 for a gain of 22% on the trade.  Here is the entry and exit price. Both were placed on the Insiders page immediately following each trade. The strategy has a cumulative gain that exceeds 130%. Energy is still extremely overbought in the short-term. The Oil Services sector (OIH) has an RSI (2) of 99.8. For now I am sitting on my hands. Yes, cash is a position. The last few weeks have been rather crazy with trading so a day or two of sitting on the sidelines might be a nice break. Overbought/Oversold for April 10, 2008 Major … [Read more...]

Energy Sector Remains Short-term Overbought – XLE Trade

Yesterday I mentioned the likelihood of another trade in the PaperTrade Sector Extremes strategy. Well, early this morning I placed the following trade and then immediately placed it on the Insiders page. (Insiders Only) As you can see by the execution time I was able to get in fairly close to the highs this morning. XLE continued to move higher throughout the morning and the RSI (2) pushed to 99.6 so I decided to place the trade. As it stands the trade has made roughly 10%, but as well know nothing is certain until trade is closed. Hopefully, the overbought conditions will finally push the sector lower over the next few days. One thing is for certain, XLE has not seen extreme levels like this in quite some time. Again, this trade … [Read more...]

ETF Extremes Trade and Sector Extremes

Yippee! It was another good day for strategies. While the market has moved lower in 2008, the strategies have performed extremely well. I closed out the ETF Extremes strategy trade today for a nice 18.2% gain. It was the first trade in the strategy since way back in July. Yes, July. The market has lost over 6% since that time and the strategy has gained 18.2%. While I was frustrated at the lack of signals at time, I knew that the strategy worked and continued to stay disciplined with the strategy’s guidelines. Admittedly, I lost quite a few subscribers as a result of the lack of signals, but I think this proves my belief in the long-term viability of this strategy. Simple, effective and best of all profitable. Check out the ETF Extremes … [Read more...]