Performance speaks for itself

April 30, 2008

I had my first loss of the year in the ETF Extremes strategy. I should probably say that  it was only the second trade of the year, but even so, the strategy is still up 7.5% for the year. My performance goal for the year in both strategies is 30% - 50%.

The market moved just high enough to hit my stop-loss this morning, so I was unable to take advantage of the move lower after the fed announcement. The market could have easily interpreted the data differently, in which case the stop-loss woud have proved effective, but just the opposite occurred. Losing trades are a definite. It is how they are managed over the long-term that proves the success of a strategy and I think I have shown over the past few years that I have managed the strategy appropriately. The performance speaks for itself.

April 30, 2008 - Crowder’s Overbought/Oversold Readings

Major Benchmarks

  • Dow (DIA) - 61.1 (neutral)
  • S&P (SPY) - 49.5 (neutral)
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - 50.9 (neutral)
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 60.7 (neutral)
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - 59.2 (neutral)

Sectors

  • Biotech (IBB) - 43.7 (neutral)
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - 50.0 (neutral)
  • Health Care (XLV) - 44.3 (neutral)
  • Financial (XLF) - 57.8 (neutral)
  • Energy (XLE) - 50.0 (neutral)
  • Industrial (XLI) - 63.6 (neutral)
  • Materials (XLB) - 35.2 (neutral)
  • Real Estate (IYR) - 39.7 (neutral)
  • Retail (RTH) - 52.5 (neutral)
  • Utilities (XLU) - 39.4 (neutral)

International

  • Brazil (EWZ) - 65.8 (neutral)
  • China (FXI) - 72.1 (overbought)

Others of Interest

  • Clean Energy (PBW) - 34.7 (neutral)
  • Water (PHO) - 62.7 (neutral)
  • Agriculture (DBA) - 22.8 (oversold)
  • Commodity Index (DBC) - 34.7 (neutral)
  • Oil Services (OIH) - 41.8 (neutral)

(Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) - less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

QQQQ remains short-term overbought

April 29, 2008

I really do not have much to say today. My stance is still the same as yesterday, at least in the tech-heavy QQQQ.

From yesterday: All of the major indices are sitting directly below strong overhead resistance. Combine this with the aforementioned overbought conditions and the probability of a fade increases. Furthermore, the two gaps (4/16 & 4/18) from two weeks ago continue to weigh on the recent low volume rally. If I sound a bit bearish at the moment, well, I am, but only over the short-term. Of course, we could see an intermediate-term decline going forward (or the exact opposite) but for the purpose of my options strategies I will stick to the short-term time frame.

April 29, 2008 - Crowder’s Overbought/Oversold Readings

Major Benchmarks

  • Dow (DIA) - 60.9 (neutral)
  • S&P (SPY) - 64.3 (neutral)
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - 57.9 (neutral)
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 75.7 (overbought)
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - 40.4 (neutral)

more overbought/oversold levels on additional sectors found in the Insider’s page (Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) - less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

All Four Major Indices in Overbought Territory - ETF Extremes

April 28, 2008

All of the major benchmarks that I follow are back in a short-term overbought state. Typically, when this type of extreme occurs a short-term reprieve follows.

All of the major indices are sitting directly below strong overhead resistance. Combine this with the aforementioned overbought conditions and the probability of a fade increases. Furthermore, the two gaps (4/16 & 4/18) from two weeks ago continue to weigh on the recent low volume rally. If I sound a bit bearish at the moment, well, I am, but only over the short-term. Of course, we could see an intermediate-term decline going forward (or the exact opposite) but for the purpose of my options strategies I will stick to the short-term time frame.

Eight out of the seventeen sectors I follow (Insiders page only) have also moved into an overbought state with several reaching a short-term overbought extreme.  I will discuss these as well as my potential trades for the PaperTrade Sector Extremes in the premarket report tomorrow morning (Insiders page).

I also placed a trade in the ETF Extremes strategy (our second trade of the year in the strategy) today. Hopefully, the trade will go as well as the prior trade. At the beginning of the month we made 18.3%  for a cumulative return that now exceeds 130% since the strategy was initiated two years ago. I will let everyone know the details  of the trade once the position is closed.

Have great night!

April 28, 2008 - Crowder’s Overbought/Oversold Readings

Major Benchmarks

  • Dow (DIA) - 77.6 (overbought)
  • S&P (SPY) - 78.1 (overbought)
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - 73.2 (overbought)
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 70.3 (overbought)
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - 59.6 (neutral)

more overbought/oversold levels on additional sectors found in the Insider’s page (Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) - less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

ETF Extremes Options Strategy

April 28, 2008

62.gifIndividuals that look for frequency of trading within a given options strategy are often disappointed with the long-term results. In most cases, the less you trade, the better you will do in the long run and the long run is what matters most.

This options trading strategy uses our proprietary models to take advantage of sentiment and technical extremes. We are proud to be one of the only stock options-based newsletters to offer recommendations based on sentiment and technical extremes in the market. This options strategy requires patience coupled with a disciplined approach. The strategy will make approximately, on average 1 to 3 recommendations a month with holding periods of 1 to 15 days; however, there will be some months when no recommendations are made. The key to this options trading strategy is patience. Waiting for the appropriate scenario to recommend trades with a high probability of success is what makes this strategy a success.

DIA, IWM, SPY and QQQQ are the underlyings of choice for the ETF Extremes Options Strategy.

Unfortunately, this strategy is proprietary so we are unable to give you all the details.

Check out the performance!

button_subscribe3.png

If you like the idea of trading stock options, but also have a life away from your computer, Autotrade is the perfect solution. You no longer have to wait by your computer screen and monitor every e-mail throughout the day. The Autotrade service is “hands free” trading and is provided to you at no extra cost to the subscription price. With the proper authorization, an online broker can execute all recommended trades both entry and exit, profit or loss, faster than you could place them yourself and often at better prices.

Click here to find out more about Autotrading.

Sector ETF Extremes Options Strategy

April 28, 2008

62.gif A short-term stock options strategy that is based on a technical mix of overbought and oversold extremes in the market. The Sector ETF Extremes Stock Options Strategy is the same as the ETF Extremes Options Strategy with the only difference being the underlyings of choice.

Biotech (IBB), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Health Care (XLV), Financial (XLF), Energy (XLE), Industrial (XLI), Materials (XLB), Real Estate (IYR), Retail (RTH), Utilities (XLU) are the underlyings of choice for the Sector Extremes Option Trading Strategy.

Individuals that look for frequency of trading within a given strategy are often disappointed with the long-term results. In most cases, the less you trade, the better you will do in the long run and the long run is what matters most.

This strategy uses our proprietary models to take advantage of sentiment and technical extremes. We are proud to be one of the only stock options-based newsletters to offer recommendations based on sentiment and technical extremes in the market. This options strategy requires patience coupled with a disciplined approach. The strategy will make approximately, on average 1 to 3 recommendations a month with holding periods of 1 to 15 days; however, there will be some months when no recommendations are made. The key to this stock options strategy is patience. Waiting for the appropriate scenario to recommend trades with a high probability of success is what makes this strategy a success.

Unfortunately, this options strategy is proprietary so we are unable to give you all the details. Although, we are certain if you follow our daily commentary and any subsequent trades you should gain a firm grasp of the strategy.

Check out the performance!

button_subscribe2.png

If you like the idea of trading stock options, but also have a life away from your computer, Autotrade is the perfect solution. You no longer have to wait by your computer screen and monitor every e-mail throughout the day. The Autotrade service is “hands free” trading and is provided to you at no extra cost to the subscription price. With the proper authorization, an online broker can execute all recommended trades both entry and exit, profit or loss, faster than you could place them yourself and often at better prices.

Click here to find out more about Autotrading.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) Gap Fade Options Strategy

April 28, 2008

62.gif

Bring your stock options trading to new heights. The Gap Fade stock options strategy is one of the most effective and easiest options trading strategies to learn. It also has the potential to be very profitable over the long-term. In fact, James Altucher, a successful money manager and author of “Trade like a Hedge Fund” dedicated the first chapter in his book to trading gaps. He states that gap trades are the “bread and butter trade” for many hedge funds.

Here at Crowder Investment Research, LLC, we have an unconventional method of trading gaps in the ETF QQQQ which represents the NASDAQ 100. Backtesting this particular method shows a win ratio which has exceeded 78% over the last ten years. Furthermore, the options strategy had a win ratio of 79% during the bear market of March 2000-September 2002. Take that win ratio and add a disciplined approach to trading the strategy and it’s easy to see how successful this unique strategy can be.

Basically, the Gap Fade options trading strategy consists of short-term options trades utilizing calls or puts that last a maximum of two days. The strategy typically trades one to five times a month, thereby limiting exposure to the market.

Statistical Data

The underlying QQQQ has a success rate of over 78% for the last ten years. With a total of 817 gap fade opportunities with 649 successful gap fills it is imperative to stay disciplined with this strategy. The following chart shows the year to year success rates of QQQQ gaps that are filled within the same day. The percentage is even higher if trade is held for a longer period. However, the risk exposure is also higher, so in most cases it is recommended that you follow the guidelines. Inherently options have finite lives, so holding on to an option for a lengthy period of time, in hopes of the initial gap filling, has the capability of being catastrophic to your investment capital.

Check out the performance!

button_subscribe1.png

If you like the idea of trading stock options, but also have a life away from your computer, Autotrade is the perfect solution. You no longer have to wait by your computer screen and monitor every e-mail throughout the day. The Autotrade service is “hands free” trading and is provided to you at no extra cost to the subscription price. With the proper authorization, an online broker can execute all recommended trades both entry and exit, profit or loss, faster than you could place them yourself and often at better prices.

Click here to find out more about Autotrading.

My Stock Options Trading Strategy E-Book (White Paper)

April 28, 2008

112.gifLearn the secrets of my favorite options strategies: “Patience, Position-Sizing and Long-Term Performance: A Guide to Several Unique Stock Options Trading Strategies that have passed the Test of Time”. My acclaimed E-book provides you with all of the details and research necessary to effectively trade our options strategies. Purchase today and receive TWO FREE months of our acclaimed newsletter plus Insider privileges ($40 value).

Book Includes

  • The Greeks
  • Seasonality
  • ETF Extremes Options Strategy
  • Gap Fade Options Trading Strategy
  • Everything Iron Condor - A Powerful, Neutral-Based Options Strategy
  • Various Position-Sizing Techniques for Your Risk Profile
  • Risk Management

button_subscribe.png

Overbought and nearing yet another signal

April 24, 2008

Two out of the four major indices and a few sectors I follow have moved back into an overbought state. The tech-heavy NASDAQ (QQQQ) is back on my radar as the indice is once again near an overbought state. My preference would be to see QQQQ (and all of the major indices) move slightly higher tomorrow. A move higher would certainly push QQQQ into an short-term extreme overbought state.

Also on my radar (for the PaperTrade Extremes) is the Materials sector (XLB). It has yet to move into an oversold state, but the RSI Wilder (2) has pushed towards 5, so another day of declines should see a trigger in the strategy.

April 23, 2008

Major Benchmarks

  • Dow (DIA) - 72.3 (overbought)
  • S&P (SPY) - 68.3 (neutral)
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - 59.8 (neutral)
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 72.5 (overbought)
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - 56.5 (neutral)

more overbought/oversold levels on additional sectors found in the Insider’s page (Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) - less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

Will we see more short-term overbought readings over the next few days?

April 23, 2008

The major indices continued to move higher today ahead of the Apple earnings after the close and by the post market action in Apple (as I write this) we should see a continuation of the move tomorrow. If the market is able to continue the advance tomorrow we should see overbought conditions in many of the major benchmarks I follow, especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ).

I am still on the sidelines at the moment as the market just hasn’t displayed any signs of extremes. My guess is that we might see another push into overbought which should make for another decent opportunity to fade the overbought readings. The upside gaps from 4/16 and 4/18 have yet to close and I still feel as though any meaningful move to the upside will not occur until the two aforementioned gaps have closed.

April 23, 2008

Major Benchmarks

  • Dow (DIA) - 64.0 (neutral)
  • S&P (SPY) - 62.1 (neutral)
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - 48.8 (neutral)
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 67.8 (neutral)
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - 72.0 (overbought)

more overbought/oversold levels on additional sectors found in the Insider’s page (Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) - less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

Post Expiration Weakness

April 22, 2008

As I reported late it is anyone’s game, at least over the short-term so I will be sitting on my hands until an extreme situation occurs again. I apologize for the short posts this week, but things should be back to normal once I get back to  the Green Mountain State  next week. Have a great night!

April 22, 2008

Major Benchmarks

  • Dow (DIA) - 65.3 (neutral)
  • S&P (SPY) - 65.8 (neutral)
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) - 47.9 (neutral)
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 61.4 (neutral)
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) - 63.1 (neutral)

more overbought/oversold levels on additional sectors found in the Insider’s page (Buy the White Paper and receive Two Months of the Insiders Page Free) - less than $1 a day.We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.

Check out our Gap Fade strategy and ETF Extremes strategy! Learn the simplicity of four powerful options strategies in our newsletter including SPX and RUT Iron Condors.

acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter plus unlimited access to our Insider’s page enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!

Next Page »