August 19, 2017

Archives for January 2008

Back near short-term overbought state with strong overhead resistance.

I often follow the RSI (2) to determine short-term overbought/oversold extremes. There is still a bit of room left until the major indices I follow reach an extreme, but it will not take much to enter into that area. Tomorrow brings the highly anticipated jobs report so a positive report should certainly push the market into the aforementioned area. A higher open will also create a gap higher which would be another short-term bearish sign. As I stated earlier the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) are a bit stretched at this point so my hope is to see a positive open to fade tomorrow. Will we get it? Who knows, but that is certainly my hope for a high probability set-up. If we don't get that then I will be sitting on th sidelines once … [Read more...]

Where Now?

The market spiked higher after the Fed announced a 50 basis point cut, but the advance did not last long. Strong overhead resistance and short-term overbought conditions were too much for the bulls to overcome. Will we test the recent lows now? If I had to take a guess I would say yes. Just look at the technicals and you can deduct that the probability of a continuation of the move lower is probable. Tomorrow will be interesting. The futures have spiked lower on several bad earnings reports. After hours SPY is currently trading around the 134 level and the low today was 134.58 so if the futures continue to hold te market lower into the open tomorrow I would expect to see the gap close and then the market begin the descent. Of course, no … [Read more...]

Expect to see choppy trading and then fireworks

Not much to say tonight. As the market prepares for the upcoming Fed announcement tomorrow, I expect to see low volume and tight range-bound trading. The release is due out shortly after 2 EST and I expect to see some fireworks following. As I stated yesterday if the market decides to continue the rally from today then we will want to watch the 1375 level (on the S&P) as the first area of strong overhead resistance. A move to the downside and I will be watching the recent lows. Overbought/Oversold for January 29, 2008  S&P (SPY) - 54.8 (neutral) Russell 2000 (IWM) - 61.3  (neutral) Dow (DIA) - 58.8 (neutral) Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) - 36.5 (neutral)  We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily … [Read more...]

Pivotal Week Ahead

This week could be a catalyst for the intermediate-term future of the market. With several major economic events (fed announcement, Jan. employment numbers) occurring this week plus a plethora of earnings reports we should expect to see volatility continue. If the market decides to continue the rally from today then we will want to watch the 1375 level (on the S&P) as the first area of strong overhead resistance. A move to the downside and I will be watching the recent lows. Unless something triggers a sharp move and an extreme I will most likely be sitting in cash until after the Fed announcement Wednesday. Overbought/Oversold for January 28, 2008  S&P (SPY) - 50.9 (neutral) Russell 2000 (IWM) - 59.5  (neutral) Dow (DIA) - … [Read more...]

Gap higher sucks in buyers and immediately sells-off

The gap higher today (on the heels of the Microsoft earnings report) was quickly sold-off, mostly due to the reasons I mentioned in the psiot yesterday. The gap higher pushed the market into a short-term overbought state as well as into strong overhead resistance. I would not be surprised to see the market test the recent lows over the coming days before attempting to move higher once again. One thing is for certain a sustained push lower will be detrimental to the market over the intermediate-term. As expected, our short-term overbought levels wore off today with the decline. It looks as though a test of the recent lows will put us back in  an oversold state and again hoping that a signal is triggered in the ETF Extremes. I will be … [Read more...]

Gap up Friday could push indices into strong overhead resistance – nearing short-term overbought

QQQQ gapped slightly higher at the open continued to rally throughout the first half hour of the trading day. This left our signal behind; however, surprisingly we are nearing a short-term overbought state which, in a bear market, is often a good indication of a temporary reprieve to the downside. The question is are we indeed in a bear market. Many of the technicals I follow certainly indicate that we have moved to that sentiment. According to the futures the market should open Friday with a gap higher. If the futures hold and indeed we move higher this could add another feather into the bears hat, again, over the short-term. THe gap higher should push the indices back into whats should act as an area of strong overhead … [Read more...]

QQQQ lowest oversold reading in over a year

Keeping it short tonight as I am working on updating the site it (should be finished in the next few weeks). Stay tuned! That is right the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) actually remained in the red today while the other major indices moved into black and rallied into the closing bell. Yes, QQQQ did move well off its lows, but it still was unable to push into positive territory. As a result, our ETF Extremes strategy is very near a signal which could come as soon as tomorrow. Yippee!!! Hopefully, things hold up and the signal kicks in and most of all lets hope for a positive trade if indeed one occurs. Overbought/Oversold for January 23, 2008  S&P (SPY) - 35.4 (neutral) Russell 2000 (IWM) - 48.3  (neutral) Dow (DIA) - 44.7 … [Read more...]

Cash is a position and the ETF Extremes Strategy proves just how valauble a position it is

The holiday shortened week began much like last week left moff. By now everyone knows what happened today in the market (emergency rate cut)so I will not bother you with the details. It was interesting to the see the VIX reach the August highs around 37.5 before moving lower. The 37.5 reading in August marked an intermediate-term low in the S&P, so it will be interesting to see if the same occurs this time around. The market is extremely oversold right now so I would expect to see a bounce over the next few sessions, but as we have seen lately and what is indicative of a bear market, oversold rallies don't come as quickly. We did make our first RUT Iron Condor trade today for a credit of $.75. I will post the details tomorrow. We … [Read more...]

January 2008 Expiration Report Now Available on Insider’s Page

Crowder Investment Research, LLC  The January 21, 2008 Expiration Report, Issue #28 is now available on the Insider's page of the website.   Please do not hesitate to email us with any suggestions, questions, comments, etc. We welcome and appreciate all of your feedback.   Click here to access the Crowder Investment Research website.  Sincerely,   Andrew Crowder   Crowder Investment Research, LLC   … [Read more...]

What a horrible way to start 2008!

What a great wat to start out 2008 with one of the worst months in many, many years.  Today marked the worst pre-options expiration performance in over 15 years. Losses during a one month time frame are reaching historical proportions. One thing  is for certain, I am very discouraged by the outcome today and what looks like a max loss in the SPX Iron Condor for the January expiration. Unless Big Ben comes in with a rate cut tomorrow moring we will experience our first max loss in the SPX Iron Condor strategy since we went to using an extra-wide range. This is why I talk about the importance of position sizing in the newsletter. SPX was 13 points above the short out strike at the close yesterday. It actually opened the day higher and … [Read more...]