More Volatility – August is Often Bleak
July 31, 2007
Yesterday I talked about the importance of the 1490 area on the S&P (SPX). I stated that once reached, it would most likely act as an area of strong resistance and as a result bring in sellers.
The market was able to push the S&P (SPX) to the 1490 level early this morning (with a gap up) only to quickly fade and continue the move lower as the day progressed. The sell-off moved into high gear at the end of the day and brought back recent bad memories of last Friday’s collapse. Now the market as a whole is back in an oversold state so one would expect to see another push higher by the bulls in the coming days. However, I am not so certain this time around. The end of the day sell-offs have been sharp and severe. Furthermore, we are moving into a period of bearish seasonality. We could move deeper into oversold territory before we see another push higher.
August has been the worst performing month in the S&P since 1987 and the second worst in the Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq. Moreover, the short-term seasonal scenario does not look so great either. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac “the first trading day in August has been atrocious” with the Dow down last 13 of 20 with only a 38.1% chance of finishing the day to the upside.
Tomorrow (and the rest of the week for that matter) brings some vital economic reports that could potentially move the market. The subprime woes continue to plague the market and have brought a new level of anxiety to the market that has not been seen in quite some time. Just look at the VIX. The February jitters did not have the same effect on the VIX (investor’s fear gauge). This should give some insight as to how the broader market feels towards the current market condition.
This is one of the reasons that I decided to take off our short put spread in the SPX Short Iron Condor strategy and did not immediately add another short bull put spread. I want to see how the market reacts to the upcoming economic reports. After the market has had the ability to absorb some of the info I plan on adding another short put spread. As I stated yesterday with volatility this high we have the ability to be somewhat patient here. We have already eliminated all downside risk by taking off the short put spread, but we had to take a loss to do so. Now our goal is to bring the loss back to breakeven or as close as possible before the August cycle is over in a little less than three weeks. As always I will keep the Iron Condor subscribers abreast of any adjustments in real-time. As for the rest of you I will try and keep you informed as the days progress.
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 31, 2007
- SPY - 26.7 (oversold)
- IWM - 22.1 (oversold)
- DIA - 25.3 (oversold)
- QQQQ - 22.9 (oversold)
- GLD - 38.4 (neutral)
- OIH - 33.2 (neutral)
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Expected Bounce Leads to….? Iron Condor Adjustment
July 30, 2007
The anticipated short-term oversold bounce occurred today and has pushed all but one (IWM) of the indices we follow back into a neutral state. As I mentioned last week, extremely oversold conditions coupled with short-term seasonal winds were due to blow in Monday and Tuesday and should lead to a decent bounce. They blew in and yes, the indices advanced. That being the case we could see some follow through tomorrow, but I have a nasty feeling that we will see the recent lows in the not-so-distant future. Remember, the gap from 4/3 and 4/16 are not yet closed and unclosed gaps when approached again tend to weigh down the market. Time will tell.
If the market happens to retest the recent lows this would not be out of the ordinary. Typically, when we have a correction of any magnitude the lows will be tested within a few weeks, so expecting it would be the conservative approach. Everyone seems to be paying close attention to the 1490 area of the S&P (SPX). If we see the S&P (SPX) reach this level while simultaneously moving into an overbought state then I expect to see some short-sellers step in, halting any bullish attempts, at least momentariliy. How powerful the selling is anyone’s guess, just be aware of the situation if it indeed comes to fruition.
We exited the short put spread in our Iron Condor for a loss today eliminating any downside risk, at least for the moment. I say for the moment because I intend on adding another put spread in the coming days which will bring in more premium and as a result, decrease our loss even further. Moreover, we have the ability to roll our call spread down which will also bring in more premium and will bring our August SPX Iron Condor position closer to breakeven. The VIX is over 20 and so premium is very high right now (in comparison to the average over the last few years) so the aforementioned scenario looks good. Subscribers can read all of the details on the Insider’s/Member’s page of the website under the Condor Trades section/ August Cycle Adjustments.
The one thing that Iron Condor strategies cannot handle is quick decline/advances. We witnessed the largest decline in over five years last week and yet our range was still in tact and our short put strike was not breached. Coming into this week our goal was to adjust our position for capital preservation reasons. A decent gap lower would bring our position into max loss territory so we decided to err on the side of caution. We have no qualms taking a loss in the strategy, particularly in this situation. It is taking significant losses that truly effect the strategy or any strategy for that matter. This is why capital preservation techniques and more importantly, position sizing are such an important factor when implementing options strategies into any portfolio.
In April we went with a 100 point range which was not nearly enough. Since then we have opted for ranges of 140-180 and have been very successful. The large range worked again this month, as it allowed us to adjust our position for a loss which could potentially lead to a break even August cycle, although that will depend on how much premium we can bring in and of course how the underlying acts. Once we add the put spread back on, the Iron Condor is back in play and the underlying SPX breaching the short put strike will once again be a concern. As I stated, if you are interested in what we have planned in the strategy please go to the insider’s/member’s page of the website. It is times like these where we all learn the most. Take advantage.
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 30, 2007
- SPY - 32.6 (neutral)
- IWM - 26.0 (oversold)
- DIA - 31.1 (neutral)
- QQQQ - 35.7 (neutral)
- GLD - 37.7 (neutral)
- OIH - 39.5 (neutral)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter, the ETF Extremes and SPX Short Iron Condor.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Market Moves Deeper Into Oversold Territory. Now at Historical Extremes.
July 27, 2007
Did you see the drop this afternoon? the S&P (SPY) moved lower $3 in just under an hour. Wow! Now the S&P is just below the 1460 area at 1458.95. Everyone knows that 1460 is a very strong area of support and given the extremely oversold nature (almost an understatement) of the market I would expect to see a bounce in the next day or so. Moreover, Monday and Tuesday are seasonally very bullish.
The one thing that would lead me to believe we could see another push lower is the gap in the S&P (SPY) on 4/16 that was never closed. I have a feeling we could close that in the next week or so. That being said, the underlying SPX is quickly approaching our short put strike and an adjustment needs to be made. We are hoping to get a bounce over the next day or so that would allow us to make an adjustment without much harm, but at this point we just want to make sure our basis are covered. Of course, a Black Monday could be devastating to the strategy, but given the already extremely oversold nature of market I have my doubts. However, stranger things have happened so nothing would surprise me at this point.
Will this be another good buying opportunity or will the situation continue to get worse? This is the question on every trader’s mind right now and I can tell you it wil be an anxious, long weekend for many traders/ hedge funds/ etc. Monday will definitely be one to watch and could be give us a very good indication as to where we are headed over the next few months.
I plan on writing another post sometime this weekend once I have a chance to digest some of the information that was released. Stay tuned!
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 27, 2007
- SPY - 10.9 (very oversold)
- IWM - 5.2 (very oversold)
- DIA - 14.8 (very oversold)
- QQQQ - 14.9 (very oversold)
- GLD - 25.6 (oversold)
- OIH - 34.4 (neutral)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter, the ETF Extremes and SPX Short Iron Condor.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Major Sell-Off. How Did Our Strategies React?
July 26, 2007
Now the market stands $.19 above the opening price of the third trading day in May, when the “Sell in May” theory begins. Even with the sharp decline today our Iron Condor position is still roughly 40 points above the short put strike, so we still have a little wiggle room. If the market bounces, which I expect to see over the next couple of days given the extremely oversold nature of the market, I might use it as an opportunity to widen the range (lowering our short put strike) which will decrease the risk a bit. We shall see when the time comes.
Our ETF Extremes did not make out as well today. As we state on the site we discuss winners and losers, reagrdless. Losing trades is where you learn the most so it is imperative to dissect a trade once it is closed, particularly if it is a loser.
We established a position yesterday for all of the reasons I have stated over the past few days i.e., very oversold, positive seasonality, etc. Well, the late bounce yesterday looked good for the trade and gave us hope that we could take a profit again today especially given the sharp advance in the futures after the closing bell. Even late last night the futures were still significantly higher.
However, the situation changed dramatically overnight as the futures gapped lower to the tune of $1.48 in IWM. When you are long a position this is never a good situation to wake up to, but as a trader you have to roll with the punches. Losses happen and they will contniue to happen throughout your investing and trading lifetime. This is one thing that I can guarantee!
The bounce at the open gave us the opportunity to get out for a reasonable loss given our long only position and the huge gap lower. Per our stop-loss and capital preservation guidelines we knew it was appropriate to take the loss and move on to the next trade. Never allow your emotions and your personal opinions get involved. Had we waited we could have potentially lost 38.9%. Constantly seeking to reduce risk and protect capital must always come before making money.
Remember, as we always say, this is a marathon and not a sprint.
We are obviously disappointed with the end result, especially because the trade looked so promising after the close when the futures shot up after the AAPL earnings were released. But, we are realists. We know there is no fool proof method of trading. No holy grail where the win ratio is 100%.
This is our second loss since our first trade in early ‘06 and it brings our win ratio down to 86.7%. Our cumulative return stands at 113.3%.
Losses happen; it is how you manage them that counts. Again, trading guidelines that include stop-loss limits, capital preservation techniques and position sizing are an integral part to investing/trading. Your most valuable commodity in investing/trading is your capital. Preserve it! We will continue to teach these valuable concepts and how they relate to our strategies in our newsletter and the daily commentary.
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 26, 2007
- SPY - 16.8 (very oversold)
- IWM - 8.3 (very oversold)
- DIA - 22.6 (oversold)
- QQQQ - 27.5 (oversold)
- GLD - Quote vendor stats are not correct
- OIH - 47.7 (neutral)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter, the ETF Extremes and SPX Short Iron Condor.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Seasonal Tendencies Do Not Disappoint
July 25, 2007
Our quote vendor is down tonight so there will not be an overbought/oversold report. Beginning next week we will be offering sector overbought/oversold readings which should be of great help to many of you. You requested it and now we are offering it. If there are other indices that you would like for us to add to the overbought/oversold list please do not hesitate to email us with your request.
Over the past few days I have stated that Wednesday begins a short-term (1-5 days) period of seasonal bullishness and given the “oversold” to very oversold” nature of the major benchmarks there could be a short-term bounce in the near future. Well, after quite a bit of volatility today the bounce finally took place at the end of the day.
The market sold off sharply after the strong opening which had many frightened. This is often the best time to take advantage of te current move, especially given the technical oversold readings that were in place. Often, when we see this type of pessimism in an already oversold market the probability of a short-term bounce is likely.
As I stated, the bounce came late in the day. After the bell the futures advacned sharply and if they hold up we could see a continuation of the bounce tomorrow. The Russell (IWM) is still in a “very oversold” state as it was the only proxy we follow that finished lower on the day. With the positive seasonal conditions ahead I would not be surprised to the IWM move into a neutral state in the next few days.
Again, we apologize for the brief post and the lack of our proprietary indicators on today’s post. Hopefully, we will be back in full force tomorrow.
Have a wonderful night!
Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com
“Sell In May and Go Away” Revisited
July 24, 2007
Today officially ended the mid-July seasonal weakness and as I have stated over the past few posts Wednesday brings a new outlook, at least over the short-term. Tomorrow is the 17th trading day of July and brings bullish seasonality with 71% (since 1985) of the days witnessing a positive return. It could be convenient timing indeed and one that could bode well for our ETF Extremes strategy.
The gap from July 12th in the S&P closed today. Yesterday, I stated “the S&P looks like it wants to close the gap before any serious attempt upwards reconvenes”. Well, now that the gap has officially closed we will see if the bulls have enough left in the tank to push the market higher. Over the short-term (1-5 days) the probability of a short-term bounce looks likely. Given the “oversold” to “very oversold” state of the largest benchmarks we follow (check below) the possiblity for at least a short-term bounce seems like a reasonable expectation.
Now let us revisit the “Sell and May and Go Away” theory that I spoke about in early May and several times since. Below are just a few snippets of prior posts involving the old Wall Street adage.
- The Stock Trader’s Almanac states “a $10,000 investment compounded to $544,323 during the November-April period over the last 56 years compared to a $272 loss for May-October”. I think that sums up the significance of the historical period known as the “Summer Doldrums”.
- Just look at the historical average return of the S&P on a monthly basis over the last 60 years.
Jan. – 1.4% Feb. – (0.2%) Mar. – 1.0% Apr. – 1.3% May – 0.3%
Jun. – 0.2% Jul. – 0.9% Aug. – 0.0% Sep. – (-0.6%) Oct. – 0.9%
Nov. – 1.8% Dec. – 1.7%
As you can see the “Sell in May” theory has some validity and should be taken into consideration. The above stats proce that the “summer doldrums” are not a figment of Wall Street’s imagination.
This year the S&P (SPY) opened at $149.34 and now it currently stands at $151.30. This equates to a gain of $1.96 or 1.3% over nearly three months. Paltry indeed.
Well, as my loyal readers know signals in the ETF Extremes have been few and far between lately. However, when looking at the performance since the “Sell in May” period came to fruition the strategy has actually outperformed the market by 5.2% with only one trade during that time frame.
Moreover, the SPX Short Iron Condor strategy has had three straight gains of 6.8%, 9.2% and 10.0% for a cumulative gain of 26.0% duringthat period.
As I always say patience, patience, patience! While most options strategies and newsletters/advisory services were losing their shirts (or at least sweating the volatility) over the past few days the ETF Extremes strategy was sitting comfortably on the sidelines patiently waiting for the next opportunity with a high probability of a positive return.
We also received an email recently from www.pro-trading-profits.com (formerly pro-option-profits) that shows our strategies, particularly the ETF Extremes is still one of the top strategies even with the recent lack of signals. Shyam (the founder) sent this email out to his hundreds of newsletter subscribers.
“We have recently added a new service to the list of those that we verify – it’s Crowder Investments, run by Andrew Crowder. For anyone who is a regular reader of this newsletter, you’ll recognize Andrew from his regular Blog Report on the daily movement in the markets.
Crowder Investments run two trading strategies:
ETF Extremes: this strategy trades options on a number of different index tracking stocks susch as QQQQ, SPY, IWM, and DIA
Short Iron Condor: Andrew’s latest strategy, which trades iron condors on the SPX (S&P 500 index)
While we have only just started tracking the iron condor strategy, the ETF Extremes stratetgy boasts a 93.3% strike rate over nearly 18 months, making it one of the most accurate of the long systems we track.
One of the most accurate long systems that they track? Wow! He states on the site that they track over 110 advisory services covering more than 180 individual trading strategies and we offer one of the top strategies. We are certainly very proud of this accomplishment and hope to continue our success for years to come. To think that we rate among the top of all advisory services mentioned on Thinkorswim, Optionsxpress, and AOS is a wonderful feat indeed especially given that the ramkings are performed by an unbiased source which is really what means the most to us.
Join us for the ride!
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 24, 2007
- SPY - 26.9 (oversold)
- IWM - 14.7 (very oversold)
- DIA - 37.9 (neutral)
- QQQQ - 35.0 (neutral)
- GLD - 82.7 (very overbought)
- OIH - 58.1 (neutral)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter, the ETF Extremes and SPX Short Iron Condor.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com
August Expiration Cycle
July 23, 2007
Today’s SPX Short Iron Condor trade went as planned. In our Expiration Report (paid subscribers only) we mentioned how we were going to attempt to bring in $1.20 for a 170 point range. We were able to meet those expectations today and as a result the Iron Condor strategy will make 12.9% over the next four weeks if the underlying SPX expires within our chosen 170 point range. The strategy will be positive on a cumulative basis if the strategy is successful during the August Cycle. (paid subscribers can read more on the Insider’s page under Condor Trades).
Our switch after the April Cycle to trade only four weeks out (wait a week in a five week cycle) while widening our range to at least 160 (170 this month) has proven successful so far. This is where we admittedly made our mistake in April. We went with a 100 point range which is way too tight for this market and our comfort level. A range of 100 points only required a move of roughly 3.3% before the short call/put strike were in risk of being breached. Furthermore, at that time the VIX was hovering around 13, which forces us to bring in less premium, but in the future if we ahve to take only a 5% gain while keeping our range around 160 points we will do so. The goal of this strategy is to stay in the game and not be greedy. Take small profits on a monthly basis and when the volatility is high take in more premium, but also use it as an opportunity to widen your range. Be smart!
With that being said, a range of 170 points will allow the underlying SPX to move/up down approximately 5.3% before the short call/put strike is in risk of being breached. Barring a major catastrophe or a significant rally, that would be quite a task for a major benchmark to move over the next four weeks.
If you would like to learn more on how we trade our Iron Condor’s check out our White Paper (http://www.crowderinvestments.com/white_paper.php) or become a subscriber to our SPX Short Iron Condor Strategy (http://www.crowderinvestments.com/amember/signup.php#product11). We limit our subscribers so reserve your spot today.
As I mentioned last week the close tomorrow officially ends the mid-July weakness and Wednesday brings a very bullish seasonal day with 71% of all those days (since 1985) advancing. It could be convenient timing indeed and one that could bode well for our ETF Extremes strategy.
I still expect the market (S&P) to move back within the trading range that has been established since early May. The end of July is typically strong, but August has become the worst S&P month in the past 19 years, second worst in th Dow and Nasdaq according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac (a must have for any serious trader). Also, the gap on July 12th is still out there and the S&P looks like it wants to close it before any serious attempt upwards reconvenes. I will talk about August seasonality as we move closer to the beginning of the month. .
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 23, 2007
- SPY - 51.1 (neutral)
- IWM - 28.4 (neutral)
- DIA - 62.0 (neutral)
- QQQQ - 66.9 (neutral)
- GLD - 82.7 (very overbought)
- OIH - 82.6 (very overbought)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter, the ETF Extremes and SPX Short Iron Condor.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com
Post-Expiration Blues?
July 20, 2007
Yesterday, I wrote about the likelihood of a period of short-term weakness (1-3 days) that would follow the retest of new highs set earlier in the week in the S&P. Well, the anticipated weakness came today and could potentially continue Monday. The trading day following options expiration is historically weak and next Monday, on a historical basis, is no different. Since 1985 the 15th trading day of July has only finished higher 38% of all days. Given the near oversold levels in the major indices we follow I would be hesitant to take a position at this point, but if the market does indeed move lower into oversold to very oversold by Wednesday we could have a decent set-up. Why?
Well, the close Tuesday officially ends the mid-July weakness and Wednesday brings a very bullish seasonal day with 71% of all those days (since 1985) advancing. It could be convenient timing indeed and one that could bode well for our ETF Extremes strategy.
As we stated yesterday we were hoping to get into a position today, but with the futures down at the open and the sharp fall that occurred immediately following the opening bell we did not want to chase the prices down. Again, we will stay diligent and abide by our guidelines that have brought us gains that have outperformed the market on a consistent basis, which is the ultimate mission of our newsletter service.
As I mentioned yesterday, www.pro-option-profits.com, a wonderful site that keeps tabs on all options-based newsletters, follows our strategies and even with the lack of signals recently in the ETF Extremes it still consistently ranks as one of the top options strategies. Consistently is the keyword here.
Furthermore, we are only in a position approximately 15% of all trading days so we do not have to endure the extreme volatility that occur in most other options strategies. As I always say, ad nauseam, this is a marathon and not a sprint.
As for our Iron Condor strategy, SPX settled around 1551 which was a little less than 2% below our short call strike. I mentioned earlier in the week, when the market was 1555 and threatening to push higher, that we had decided it was best to take our profits off the table for a 10% gain for the July cycle eliminating any risk of the underlying SPX breaching our short call strike. It was certainly another nice cycle for the Iron Condor strategy.
Our switch after April to trade only four weeks out (wait a week in a five week cycle) while widening our range significantly has proven successful so far. If premium continues to soar like it has over the past few months opportunities to widen the range even further (which decreases the risk of the underlying breaching our short strikes) should be plentiful. After a few years of low premium in the major indices, premium has finally made its way back and sellers of premium should rejoice.
On Monday we will attempt to initiate another position in the SPX Short Iron Condor strategy which I will discuss in the Expiration report due out this weekend (paid subscribers only). The VIX shot up 1.72 today so premium should be very nice as we move into post expiration which should allow us to widen our range even further.
Also, please send me your comments and suggestions on the new site. We are ecstatic about the new site. Success has been our friend and we intend on keeping it that way for a long time.
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 20th, 2007
- SPY - 44.0 (neutral)
- IWM - 30.9 (neutral)
- DIA - 51.8 (neutral)
- QQQQ - 66.2 (neutral)
- GLD - 88.3 (very overbought)
- OIH - 74.5 (overbought)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter, the ETF Extremes and SPX Short Iron Condor.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! With your purchase you will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com
Retest of Highs Now Weakness Expected
July 19, 2007
Yesterday I stated “we could see a retest of what has been strong overhead resistance (1555) in the coming days.” The retest came today in the S&P and now I expect to see at least some short-term (1-3 days) weakness follow.
As I mentioned in the post yesterday, “This type of set up could prove advantageous for short-term (1-3 days) bears as we move into post-options expiration. Historically, post expiration is weak, particularly the trading day following options expiration. Furthermore, as I mentioned late last week the market is in the midst of a seasonally weak period. The next four trading days are historically very weak, especially Friday and Monday. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac July expiration has seen the “Dow lower 4 out of the last 6 years”. More importantly, since 1985 the Almanac goes on to state that since 1985 the Dow and S&P have only finished those days higher 38.1% and 28%, respectively.”
As always, I will keep subscribers to our strategies, particularly the ETF Extremes, abreast of any developments over the coming days.
I would also like to point out that a site by the name of www.pro-option-profits.com, a wonderful site that keeps tabs on all options-based newsletters, follows our strategies and even with the lack of signals recently in the ETF Extremes it still consistently ranks as one of the top options strategies. Consistently is the keyword here. Click on our tab on the left side of the website to see for yourself.
Also, please send me your comments and suggestions on the new site. We are ecstatic about the new site. Success has been our friend and we intend on keeping it that way for a long time.
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 19th, 2007
- SPY - 72.0 (overbought)
- IWM - 56.2 (neutral)
- DIA – 77.2 (overbought)
- QQQQ - 84.5 (very overbought)
- GLD - 83.8 (very overbought)
- OIH - 70.9 (overbought)
We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service. We currently follow 2 stock options strategies in our investment newsletter.
If you want to an in-depth, step-by-step look at how we trade our strategies purchase our acclaimed E-Book! You will receive Two Free Months of our investment newsletter enabling you to follow our strategies as you learn. What do you have to lose? Join today!
Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com
Potential Retest and then Post Expiration Blues?
July 18, 2007
After the sharp intraday decline the S&P bounced off support levels (1535) late in the trading day and managed to only lose 0.2% on the day. As I write this the futures are up and if they hold overnight we could see a retest of what has been strong overhead resistance (1555) in the coming days.
This type of set up could prove advantageous for short-term (1-3 days) bears as we move into post-options expiration. Historically, post expiration is weak, particularly the trading day following options expiration. Furthermore, as I mentioned late last week the market is in the midst of a seasonally weak period. The next four trading days are historically very weak, especially Friday and Monday. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac July expiration has seen the “Dow lower 4 out of the last 6 years”. More importantly, since 1985 the Almanac goes on to state that since 1985 the Dow and S&P have only finished those days higher 38.1% and 28%, respectively.
I make it a habit to never trade on seasonality alone, but I always pay attention to which way the seasonal winds are blowing and if the conditions are right and I have the seasonal winds at my back I am more apt to take a position. It can certainly increase the probabilty of a potential trade. This situation could bode well for our ETF Extremes strategy. As always, I will keep subscribers to the strategy posted for any developments that may occur over the coming days. Patience, patience, patience!
It has been a while, but loyal subscribers know that we experienced a similar situation last year and after that frustrating period (at least for me) our cumulative gains increased dramatically. We stick by our guns here. Strategies go through doldrum periods and the inexperienced often become overly frustrated and try to trade through it rather than allowing the signals of their ”bread and butter” strategy to present themselves. As we all know this does not work over the long haul. With a win ratio that exceeds 92% we intend on sticking to the guidelines of the ETF Extremes strategy. Why would we not? Our strategy isn’t for everyone, particularly those who want lots of action and that is fine. To each their own! As we say on the site, performance is the sole factor on which all investment strategies should be judged and our performance speaks for itself!
Also, please send me your comments and suggestions on the new site. We are ecstatic about the new site. Success has been our friend and we intend on keeping it that way for a long time.
Overbought/Oversold levels for July 18th, 2007
- SPY – 65.3 (neutral)
- IWM – 47.8 (neutral)
- DIA – 72.8 (overbought)
- QQQQ – 79.4 (overbought)
- GLD – 79.5 (overbought)
- OIH – 42.5 (neutral)
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Have a wonderful night!
Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com
















