July 26, 2017

Archives for December 2006

Have a Wonderful New Year!

I hope all of you have a safe and wonderful New Year! There will be no posts this week so we will see you all in 2007!  Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com … [Read more...]

Seasonality should begin to take over tomorrow

The higher-beta Russell and Nasdaq 100 have once again reached oversold territory and conveniently right as the year-end seasonal bullishness historically begins. That was a mouthful! QQQQ is back near an important area of support and given the strong seasonal bias that lies ahead I think buyers will step in over the next few trading days to push the market back near the recent highs. SPY has also reached a similar level so both should be watched closely over he next day or so. If the market is unable to hold support then we could see a Christmas correction that most likely will last for several weeks. I am not expecting to see this type of action as buyers have recently been very reliable when the indices have reached strong support areas. … [Read more...]

Holiday Bull?

Not much to report today. The two previous posts sum up my thoughts as to where I think we are headed over the short-term. Unlike the last few months where all historical precedents have been turned upside down,  I think the seasonal tendencies will live up to the historical billing this time around and reign supreme until the New Year passes. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) is slowly creeping into an oversold state and I think once it does so the year-end rally will commence. However, I think the bears will have a surprise or two for the market in the near future, so, learn from past experience and don't be too greedy.   RSI Wilder (5) for December 20, 2006 SPY - 54.8 (neutral) IWM - 34.1 (neutral) QQQQ - 34.8 (neutral) DIA - 80.3 (very … [Read more...]

Which way do we go, which way do we go

The expected test of the recent lows came early this morning and once again the bulls came roaring in to lift the market off of intra day oversold levels. Even with the bounce the higher-beta indices of the Russell (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) remain in oversold to near-oversold levels, respectively. While IWM and QQQQ move lower the major benchmarks, the Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) continue to climb higher. After today's push, the Dow rests in an overbought state. The market seems to be at odds, at least over the short-term. We have not seen the major indices sit in an oversold (IWM) and overbought (DIA)  on the same trading day in quite some time. In most cases, the higher-beta sectors win out, but given the string seasonal tendencies that … [Read more...]

Strong Seasonality Ahead

The trading day following options expiration is typically bearish and today was no different. The market moved higher at the open only to falter a half hour into the trading day. The impact of the sell-oof was felt in the higher-beta indices that we follow, the Russell (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). Both indices are nearing oversold conditions and if they manage to move slightly lower intra-day tomorrow, testing the recent lows, the bulls could step in for a sohrt-term oversold bounce. Couple the potential oversold conditions with strong positive seasonalilty ahead and we could get a move back towards recent highs. This could certainly make for a nice short-term set-up over the next day or so. Historically, the closer the market gets to the … [Read more...]

Bullish Holiday Season Followed by January Correction?

The market continued the surge higher today although most of the gains were given up as short-term overbought conditions proved too much for the bulls to overcome. The RSI readings are still quite high and a there area few other short-term indicators that are leaning towards the bearish camp. Remember, when I say short-term I mean 1-5 days. As we move into post-options expiration I would expect to see some weakness on Monday as the day following options expiration is historically weak. After this short-term phenomenon passes the seasonal winds are overwhelmingly bullish and should lift the market higher going into the New Year. However, once the New Year passes I expect to see a decent sell-off. January corrections have been the norm … [Read more...]

Post-Options Expiration Blues???

Will the post-expiration bear rear its ugly head on Monday. Historically, the trading day following options expiration is substantially weaker than normal. Couple this with the S&P (SPY) and DOW (DIA) in a very overbought to overbought state and we could indeed expect to see weakness on Monday. Another telling sign for short-term weakness on Monday is the struggling high-beta sectors of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and the Russell (IWM). Both indices have struggled to keep up with the S&P and DOW which usually spells trouble going forward. Overall, I expect to see continued strength, with a overbought selling days mixed in, over the next few weeks. Seasonality is extremely strong during this time of year and should help keep the market afloat. … [Read more...]

Christmas Correction or Santa Claus Rally?

The market gapped up at the recent highs at the open only to give back all of the gains shortly after the opening bell. Today marks the seventh straight day of what has been a very tight trading range in the major indices, particularly the S&P (SPY). I expect to see a breakout of the range within the next three trading sessions. Options expiration is only a few days away so volatility should pick up and we also have a few key economic releases over the next few days which should give the bulls or bears the conviction needed to move the market outside of the current short-term range. The Dow and S&P are at the high side of neutral territory while the high-beta Nasdaq 100 and Russell are on the low side. If the high-beta indices can move … [Read more...]

S&P Continues to Bounce Off Strong Support

Before I get started with the good stuff I would like to apologize for the late post. This the first, maybe second time that I have had ISP issues and hopefully it will be the last. I know many of you look forward to reading my daily post so again I apologize. The move today before the Fed announcement is somewhat of a rarity. Typically, the market will trade in a tight sideways fashion with volume tapering off as the day moves closer to the Fed announcement. Obviously, this did  not occur today which caught a few surprise, howver, it for the most part a no harm no foul type of move because the S&P bounced off of what has been a very strong level of support at 141. The market is just finished its sixth day trading a tight range-bound … [Read more...]

Range-bound Trading Persists

Did you notice the VIX today? The investors fear gauge moved lower approximately 11% today. The premier benchmark for of U.S. stock market volatility is back down near historical levels. This is a good indicator that investors/traders are getting complacent and and the probability of a move lower could occur over the short-term. The major benchmarks are inching their way back towards an overbought state (though not quite there) so I will be paying close attention to how the VIX reacts to what I think will be a sharp move outside of the tight range we have been trading in over the last five days. I am currently following the S&P, more specifically SPY. If the benchmark ETF can hold support at 141 (or around there) we could be in for … [Read more...]