July 30, 2014

Seasonal Bullishness Ahead. How long will it last?

Before I get started I would like to inform you that Monday's post was featured in the Wall Street Journal. I would like to give a special thanks to David Gaffen and especially to all of my loyal readers for the constant support ever since I began this journey at the beginning of the year. The blog is making headway, and best of all, our portfolios, especially, the ETF Extremes, is outperforming the market by a significant margin. With a YTD return of 44.1% it is only a matter of time before we will have to add interested subscribers to the waiting list. Check us out, we think you will find our service one of the most unique and resourceful newsletters online. The first few trading days of December are historically bullish, … [Read more...]

Upside Gap Doesn’t Close

There was an upside gap today in the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow (DIA) and Russell 2000 (IWM). As soon as the opening bell sounded, buyers stepped in and never allowed sellers to close the gap in the three aforementioned indices. Historically, this does not bode well for the bulls over the short-term.   Typically, when a gap occurs (opening price higher than the prior days high) of this magnitude and breadth continued upside momentum is limited over the short-term. Furthermore, in most cases when a gap like this occurs, the gap closes within a few trading days, but given the seasonally bullishness (transition from month to month) we could see a continued move for a few more days. If the market does indeed move higher, forming a double top, … [Read more...]

Oversold bounce. How long will it last?

The major indices quickly bounced off the oversold levels that were quickly established yesterday. The bounce was somewhat expected given the recent strength and the lack of any notable corrections over the last few months. The question is, how long will the bounce last. Will the market quickly turn over during the next few sessions or will buyers show some conviction and keep the extended rally afloat? Monday's extreme selling pressure could be a warning sign that the correction could continue over the coming days or weeks. Quite often when the market hits new highs and is met by heavy selling pressure the short-term future typically leans towards the bearish camp. Today's bounce, while somewhat encouraging for the bulls, was still … [Read more...]

Back into Oversold Territory

 After a much needed breack from the daily grind of my commentary I am finally back. Over the course of the last week I have had a few ideas about how I am going to move forward with the newslettter. With the recent success of our ETF Extremes (up over 44% YTD) and our recent feature in the WSJ we are nearing our capacity for subscribers. If you are interested in our service now is the time to consider joining our service. At $39.95 per month ($19.95 for the semi-monthly newsletter) we are the best bargain around. Compare our performance and prices to other newsletter/ advisory services and I think you will agree. www.crowderinvestments.com  Now on to the good stuff. The major indices took a beating today. The S&P experienced its … [Read more...]

Turkey Day

I will not offer any posts this week. I hope all of you have a wonderful holiday week. After posting every day since April 1st I am due for a much needed break from the blog so I have decided to take this week to rejuvenate. I will resume posting on the 27th. Have a great T-day! Andrew Crowder … [Read more...]

Options Expiration

Options expiration is finally over and the bulls will most likely take a rest on Monday. Typcailly, the trading day following options expiration is seasonally bearish and when the market is in a very overbought state the probability of a move lower is significantly higher than the norm. THe VIX lost a little more ground today and is close to closing below 10. We are in historical territory and as I stated yesterday a move lower seems imminent. As a great man once said: there is a better way for investors to judge the value of investment advice. Instead of looking at what these “experts” promise, look instead at the results they have actually delivered. In other words, focus on performance, not promises. I would like to … [Read more...]

Could the VIX be telling us something?

 Have you been paying attention to the VIX lately? The index, often referred to as the "investor fear gauge" has reached a historical low. In most cases, a low VIX reading often means a decline is imminent. Couple the historically low reading with all of the major indices in a "very overbought" state and I think the bears could rear their ugly heads in the near future. I am starting to see some extremes that I have not seen in years so needless to say  I think a sustained move to the upside will be limited. Seasonal tendencies and historical precedents have been virtually worthless lately so I am interested to see if the trading days surrounding Turkey Day will be kind to the bulls like in the past. Either way, as I said before, … [Read more...]

How much longer will this rally continue?

All of the major indices are reaching multi-year highs which is causing a buzz among investors (and why not right?). The bearish indicators have been piling up for weeks now yet the bulls remain in control of the market. Fortunately, I never allow my market views, right or wrong, to interfere with the strategies I follow. My theory is trade using a proven system or use the Warren Buffet method. I prefer to use the latter in my retirement portfolio. Anyway.... All of the major indices are currently in a "very overbought" state which, in most cases, means short-term moves to the upside should be limited. Recently the market has sustained overbought levels for days so I will be paying close attention to how the market reacts around this … [Read more...]

Strong Overhead Resistance Broken

The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke through the strong overhead resistance that has been in place for several weeks now. The 139 area in SPY has been rather troublesome for the bulls until today. The indice looked as though it would fall back again today once the area was tested then a massive surge in volume came through which led to a rally into the close. The talking heads said that the rally was triggered by a large insitutional program trade in the S&P futures contracts. Keep a close eye on the 139 area in the SPY. If buyers move in and are able to hold the index above that pivotal area we could get a continuation of the rally. THe the bulls are unable to hold the 139 area then we could see a move back into oversold territory. With … [Read more...]

Strong overhead resistance keeps the market in check

 I am going to keep it short tonight. Overhead resistance remains strong in the SPY. Shortly after the market opened today SPY moved sharply to the upside only to be halted by the 139 area (SPY) once again. This area ahas proved to be meddlesome for the bulls and until I see a breach and hold above this area I am still leaning towards a move lower. Several important inflationary indicators and retail number are out this week and should give the bulls//bears fuel (depending on how the reports are interpreted) to guide this market over the next few weeks. Have a great night!  RSI Wilder (5) for November 13, 2006 SPY - 63.4 (neutral) DIA - 60.7 (neutral) IWM -  63.6 (neutral) QQQQ - 76.9 (overbought) Andrew Crowder, … [Read more...]