June 27, 2017

Archives for July 2006

Summer Doldrums are Back!

Today's price action exhibited the typical low-volume trading that we are accustomed to seeing during the summer months. Coming of one of the best weeks of the year a consolidation Monday is too be expected. Today's action would normally be seen as a positive day as the market basically finished the day by only giving up fraction of last week's advance, however, the market is currently exhibiting some bearish tendencies that should be noted. For one, the S&P (SPY) and Dow (DIA) are still overbought while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and Russell (IWM) are quickly approaching that status. Tomorrow is the first day of the month and historically, a bullish seasonal day. Suprisingly though the first day of August is historically a flat day. … [Read more...]

The market closes at an important juncture

I would like to reiterate what I stated yesterday in the blog as our feed was temporarily disabled. If you happened to read yesterday's post we apologize for the inconvenience and you should probably skip to the new information. We stated the following yesterday: After several months without a signal we resumed our profitable ways in the ETF Extremes strategy. We made 13.3% on the trade in just over a week and are now up 23.9% YTD. We have stated several times over the past few months that we were not going to be pressured into a trade in our ETF Extremes strategy. Patience and discipline are the key ingredients to the success of this strategy and forcing a trade is, in most cases, detrimental to any strategy. Our exact words … [Read more...]

Is the rally over?

  After several months without a signal we resumed our profitable ways in the ETF Extremes strategy. We made 13.3% on the trade in just over a week and are now up 23.9% YTD. We have stated several times over the past few months that we were not going to be pressured into a trade in our ETF Extremes strategy. Patience and discipline are the key ingredients to the success of this strategy and forcing a trade is, in most cases, detrimental to any strategy. Our exact words on the website: "This strategy requires patience coupled with a disciplined approach. The strategy will make approximately, on average 1 to 3 recommendations a month with holding periods of 1 to 15 days, however, there will be some months when no recommendations are made. … [Read more...]

Marginal Decline

After two days to the upside and moving ever so closer to an overbought state the market took a pause today. If the market is to move higher and stay there, we should expect to see days like today. SPY tested the 1260 support area that I mentioned yesterday and bounced nicely off that level early in the trading day. This is certainly a positive for the market going forward. The one troubling aspect of this rally is the lagging tech-heavy QQQQ. The Nasdaq 100, which usually leads the charge in a sustainable move up/down has been running in place while the rest of the market has climbed upward. If we are to see a continuation of this rally then we need to see buyers show some conviction in the riskier sectors. Admittedly, I am a little … [Read more...]

The Rally Continues or Does It?

For the first time in over a month a rally was sustained. Does this mean the rally has legs? After struggling to gain any ground today the major indices moved substantially higher towards the end of the day only to give back a chunk of profits after the bell. Hopefully this is only a small step back in what looks like a decent set-up for a sustained rally. After Monday's rally many were looking towards today to see if the rally would continue. Over the past month or so we have had three sharp moves to the upside only to give back everything and then some a few days later. So far the market has been able to move past some rather bearish historical precedents so this is certainly a positive for the market going forward, at least for the … [Read more...]

Will this rally have legs?

Today's rally was identical to the last three over the past month, at least so far. Each rally ended the day with a bullish precedent, 10-1 up versus down volume. Historically, these types of moves have sparked buying interest and have led to some decent gains going forward. Unfortunately, as we all know the last three have sold-off immediately following each rally. However, one historical precedent was broken today, the post-expiration blues. As I mention on each options expiration, the day following expiration is historically bearish, especially after our recent options expiration. Well, today that strong seasonal bias was broken as the market rallied without hesitation. This could be the bullish sign the market needs as a jumpstart to … [Read more...]

Expiration Blues

The market never gave the idea of a follow through to Wednesday's oversold bounce a chance. All of the major indices continued to sell-off today and are now below the pre-Bernanke levels. As I mentioned yesterday, if the market can hold current levels early next week we should expect to see another push higher. First, we must overcome the post-expiration blues that usually occurs the day immediately following options expiration. Historically, the day following options expiration is bearish and the June period is particularly weak. A knee-jerk reaction to a move lower would certainly be the best scenario for the bulls. QQQQ is once again oversold and if the rest of the indices follow the tech-heavy index's lead we could most-likely see … [Read more...]

Consolidation and then Some

Was yesterday a fakeout? Well the Nasdaq gave back all the gains from yesterday and the Dow and S&P gave up roughly 50%. By the looks of todays action the answer is leaning towards, I hate to say it, yes. Although, I am not going to give up hope just yet as  there is still some hope of a sustainable move higher if we can hold up tomorrow and Monday. We are entering some fairly strong seasonal weakness over the next few days so if the market, namely the Nasdaq, can hold here or move higher than I feel another short-term rally is in the cards. As I write this the futures are up, but we all know how quickly that can change by the opening bell tomorrow. Both Google and Microsoft are higher after their earnings release and ahve managed to … [Read more...]

Bernanke Bounce

I have mentioned over the past few days how the market was primed for a bounce. Well, my service established a position (call options) mid-day yesterday in the tech heavy QQQQ and was rewarded handsomely today. Our proprietary signals worked to perfection. We had to wait several months for a signal, but it was well worth the wait. As I always say patience, patience, patience. Many investors forget this concept and stray away from the long-term course and usually suffer the consequences as a result.  We have yet to close out the position as there still seems to be more room to run in this current market environment. We do anticipate a possible struggle to move substantially higher over the next few days, but if we can consolidate here and … [Read more...]

Is this the beginning of a sustained rally?

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) established a new low today while the S&P (SPY), Dow (DIA) and Russell 2000 (IWM) were able to tread above recently established lows. This scenario could potentially be very important for the short-term health of the market. The fact that the other major indices, especially the S&P, were able to hold recent levels without establishing new lows and that the QQQQ snapped back immediately and led the market higher after the new lows were set proves that there is still a decent number of bulls out there ready to put their money to work. The lows in the S&P today should act as a decent support going forward. Many on Wall Street are predicting tomorrow to be a pivotal day for the intermediate-term. Big Ben begins a … [Read more...]